College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 3

The last time the Apple Cup rivalry game between Washington and Washington State was staged before November was in 1945. It’s never been played in September until this weekend.

The exact same description is true of the Civil War rivalry between Oregon and Oregon State.

Everything has changed in college football this year, and that includes the timing of some classic in-state showdowns. There’s naturally a lot of complaining about the reverberations and unintended consequences from the birth of megaconferences, but there are bright sides too.

In this case, isn’t it cool to have a mini rivalry week early in the season?

Throw in the Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh and the Rocky Mountain Showdown with Colorado and Colorado State, and Week 3 has a distinct flavor that otherwise wouldn’t exist.

It’s always a little bit trickier handicapping rivalry games, but I’m hoping I’m up to the task to build on back-to-back strong weeks. The record for the year picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game point spread now stands at 54-33-1 (17-14 on plays, 18-11-1 on leans and 19-8 on guesses) after a 31-18 (11-6 on plays, 8-8 on leans, 12-4 on guesses) mark in Week 2.

Read below for picks on every Week 3 contest with write-ups for the biggest games and strongest positions. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence.  

Top Games

Arizona +7 at Kansas State, over/under: 58.  Arizona might have the edge in the skill positions, but Kansas State’s advantage in the trenches is more pronounced. Arizona has looked sloppy in each of the first two weeks, failing to cover by a total of 34 points in the pair of games, as they adjust to a new coach in Brent Brennan while Kansas State is more finely-tuned in its sixth season under coach Chris Klieman. Play: Kansas State -7.  

Alabama -15 at Wisconsin, over/under: 50.5. Alabama’s shaky performance hosting South Florida last week, where it didn’t pull away until late despite the misleading 42-16 final score, was largely due to a rash of offensive line absences. But coach Kalen DeBoer has intimated that the cluster injury isn’t serious. He could have even been holding out players like left tackle Kadyn Proctor out in anticipation of having them ready for this early road test. Guess: Alabama -15.

Memphis +7 at Florida State, over/under: 52. Coach Mike Norvell reached three straight American Athletic Conference championship games, winning one, before departing Memphis for Florida State. Current Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield hasn’t gotten to one despite Norvell leaving him with a strong roster and program infrastructure. Translation: Norvell is a far superior coach. He should capitalize this week coming out of a bye. Play: Florida State -7.   

LSU -7 at South Carolina, over/under: 50.5. South Carolina’s experienced secondary flummoxed Kentucky quarterbacks Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt, holding the pair to 44 passing yards with an interception each. LSU passer Garrett Nussmeier, who’s completed 75% of his passes with eight touchdowns to one interception through two weeks, is on a different level. This number would have been closer to two touchdowns a week ago, and South Carolina might be getting too much credit for its 31-6 rolling of Kentucky as 8.5-point underdogs. Play: LSU -7.   

Boston College +16.5 at Missouri, over/under: 54. The total has crashed a couple points, and that makes sense given how both of these teams have started the season. The Tigers have somewhat surprisingly looked further ahead on defense than offense, having not allowed a single point yet, while the Eagles have one shutout to their name and only allowed 13 points to Florida State. In a low-scoring game, points are the only way to look. Guess: Boston College +16.5.

Washington State +4 at Washington, over/under: 56. The Huskies’ pairing of new coach Jedd Fisch and quarterback Will Rogers looks to be a natural fit and winning combination. Rogers, a four-year starter at Mississippi State, can thrive in the right system and might expedite past the usual Year 1 growing pains with a new coaching staff. He should find open space against an inexperienced and mediocre Cougars defensive backfield. Play: Washington -4.

Oregon -15.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 50. Less than 10 months ago, Oregon smashed Oregon State 31-7 as 14-point favorites. From a strictly talent perspective, the former has arguably gotten stronger since then and the latter has gotten weaker. The Ducks’ roster upgrades haven't shown on the field yet in a pair of tight wins over Idaho and Boise State, but both those opponents are a touch better than they’re credited. This could be where it all comes together. Lean: Oregon -15.5.

Top Plays

Arizona State -2.5 at Texas State, over/under: 58.5. Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo sits third in the nation with 311 rushing yards after tearing through Wyoming and Mississippi State the first two weeks. But both of those teams have rebuilt, shaky defensive lines. Texas State is more formidable at the line of scrimmage. This is also one of the biggest games of the year for the Bobcats given their belief that they can snag the final conference-champion spot in the College Football Playoff; they’ll be highly-prepared. Play: Texas State +2.5.

West Virginia +2.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 61. There are +120 moneyline bets available on the Panthers to win outright, and that’s mathematically sharper than taking a typically-insignificant 2.5 points on the spread. This could be one of the higher-scoring installments of this rivalry, and Pittsburgh redshirt freshman/Alabama transfer quarterback Eli Holstein looks up to the task. The market may not have caught up yet to how impressive he’s looked. Play: Pittsburgh +2.5.

Appalachian State -3 at East Carolina, over/under: 58.5. For the second straight week, the market is moving against East Carolina after this line opened Applachian State -1. For the second straight week, I’ll gladly take the extra value on what’s quietly one of the best Group of Five conference teams. The Pirates are 2-0 straight-up and against the spread despite sitting 130^th in the nation with a -6 turnover margin. Clean that up and they’ll really start flattening opponents. Play: East Carolina +3.

Cincinnati -2.5 at Miami (Ohio), over/under: 45.5. The RedHawks got outgained by nearly 1 yard per play in a 13-6 Week 1 loss to Northwestern as 3-point underdogs. Cincinnati isn’t great, but they’ve got a better roster than Northwestern. Miami (Ohio) lost more off last year’s MAC championship squad than the betting market is implying with these short spreads.  Play: Cincinnati -2.

Troy +23 at Iowa, over/under: 39. Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara’s best days are behind him — and he wasn’t exactly a Heisman Trophy candidate at his peak either. The Hawkeyes’ defense might suffocate the Trojans and single-handedly cover, but laying this large of a number with an offense this anemic is not advisable. Play: Troy +23.

Utah -21 at Utah State, over/under: 46.5. Coming off a 48-0 loss at USC as 29-point underdogs, the Aggies might quietly be one of the worst teams in the nation. Utah could have probably won by that much against Baylor last week if it didn’t strangely turn completely vanilla after getting out to a 17-0 lead and losing quarterback Cameron Rising. If Rising can’t play this week — though reports seem encouraging — coach Kyle Whittingham should have a better plan in place for backup Isaac Wilson. Play: Utah -21.

Toledo +12.5 vs. Mississippi State, over/under: 59.5. Mississippi State fell down 30-3 to Arizona State last week before rallying to score three touchdowns in a garbage time and posting a misleading final score. But the limitations of the Bulldogs’ roster had already been on display; they are an SEC team in name only this year and a bet-against until further notice. Play: Toledo +12.5.

Other Games

Play: Baylor -15 vs. Air Force

Play: UCLA +3 vs. Indiana

Play: San Diego State +20 at California

Play: Texas Tech -9.5 vs. North Texas

Play: Jacksonville State +2.5 at Eastern Michigan

Play: Auburn -28 vs. New Mexico

Lean: Maryland -2.5 at Virginia

Lean: Georgia -23.5 at Kentucky

Lean: Georgia State +10.5 vs. Vanderbilt

Lean: UCF +2 at TCU

Lean: Oklahoma State -20 at Tulsa

Lean: UAB +24 at Arkansas

Lean: Kennesaw St. +20 at San Jose State

Lean: Western Kentucky -7.5 at Middle Tennessee

Lean: UNLV +7 at Kansas

Lean: Colorado -7.5 at Colorado State

Lean: BYU -10 at Wyoming

Lean: Michigan -22.5 vs. Arkansas State

Lean: Texas -34.5 vs. UTSA

Lean: Florida International +6 at Florida Atlantic

Lean: Connecticut +17.5 at Duke

Lean: Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Tulane

Lean: Florida +4.5 vs. Texas A&M

Lean: Hawaii +4.5 at Sam Houston

Lean: Southern Miss +12 vs. South Florida

Lean: Fresno State -19.5 vs. New Mexico State

Lean: Ball State +37 at Miami

Guess: Massachusetts +4.5 at Buffalo

Guess: Houston -4.5 vs. Rice

Guess: Liberty -23 vs. UTEP

Guess: Notre Dame -11.5 at Purdue

Guess: Old Dominion +14 vs. Virginia Tech

Guess: Wake Forest +23.5 vs. Ole Miss

Guess: Louisiana Tech +22.5 at North Carolina State

Guess: Central Michigan +20 at Illinois

Guess: UNR +18 at Minnesota

Guess: Temple +18.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Kent State +49 at Tennessee

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or