College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 4

The Big 12 came into the season as the only power conference priced to have a competitive championship race among more than three or four teams.

The parity has only grown through the first three weeks of the year. Five teams are now 10-to-1 or shorter to win the conference championship at Circa Sports, and 11 teams are 30-to-1 or shorter — up from four and nine in the offseason.

Kansas State and UCF are the big risers as they’re now +380 (i.e. risking $100 to win $380) and +650, respectively, after picking up victories over conference opponents in Week 3.

UCF came back to defeat TCU 35-34 as 3-point underdogs in one of the most entertaining games on Saturday’s slate. Kansas State smashed Arizona 31-7 as 7-point favorites on Thursday night, but it’s important to note that the victory doesn’t officially count in the conference standings.

The schools agreed to the game as a nonconference contest before Arizona ended up joining the Big 12 last year.

That draws into question whether Kansas State deserves to have surpassed Oklahoma State, which is now +500, as the Big 12’s second choice behind Utah, now at +255.

The Utes and Cowboys were the top two choices for months, making Saturday’s game between the two teams in Stillwater, Okla., one of the most important Big 12 games of the season. Oklahoma State opened a 3-point favorite, but money has come in to flip the line to as high as Utah -2.

It might be the biggest game in the nation on the Week 4 schedule, giving the Big 12 a rare spotlight showcase.

The SEC and Big Ten might dominate conversation for every week the rest of the year, but the highest-leverage game Saturday will take place at Boone Pickens Stadium. The winner will clear its biggest hurdle to a conference title and the College Football Playoff bye virtually guaranteed to come with it.

The victor will certainly be the favorite in the Big 12 future odds starting next week, but a lot of other teams are lurking. Iowa State is the other primary contender and now down to +750 after knocking off archrival Iowa as 3-point underdogs in Week 2.

The other teams that the odds give an implied 2 percent or chance or better to win the Big 12 are Texas Tech (20-to-1), Arizona (25-to-1), Arizona State (30-to-1), Colorado (30-to-1), Kansas (30-to-1) and TCU (30-to-1).

Most of those teams have tightly lined games on their own this week, and I’ll look to handicap them all successfully in search of a fourth straight winning week. The record picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game stands at 82-57-1 (25-23 on plays, 32-19-1 on leans and 25-15 on guesses) after going 28-24 (8-9 on plays, 14-8 on leans and 6-7 on guesses) in Week 4.

Read below for picks on every Week 4 contest with write-ups for the biggest games and strongest positions. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence.

Top Games

Illinois +9.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 57.5. The Cornhuskers look revitalized after starting the season 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, but they’ve played exclusively opponents they can dominate up front in coach Matt Rhule’s preferred style. But that’s not going to be as easy against Illinois, which employs a similar philosophy under coach Bret Bielema. This would need to touch 10 for Illinois to even be worth a small bet, but it should be a challenge matchup-wise. Guess: Illinois +9.5.

NC State +21 at Clemson, over/under: 48. This would have been an ideal buy-low spot on the Wolfpack if quarterback Grayson McCall wasn’t ruled out with an undisclosed injury earlier this week. Freshman backup CJ Bailey used his mobility to help NC State to come back to beat Louisiana Tech 30-20 as 21-point favorites last week, but that won’t work against a Clemson defense that remains talent-rich. Still, this number was as low as -7 coming into the season and reopened -14 so this is quite the jump. Guess: NC State +21.

USC -6.5 at Michigan, over/under: 46.5. The Trojans’ defense is much improved, but they’ve still given up a somewhat troubling 4.2 yards per rush attempt on the season. Could Michigan revitalize its offense with newly announced starting quarterback Alex Orji heading a misdirection-run scheme? Maybe to an extent, and that might be all that’s needed to stay within a touchdown. Lean: Michigan +6.5.

Arizona State +3 at Texas Tech, over/under: 60. Arizona State gave up a parade of explosive plays in a fortunate 31-28 victory over Texas State as 2.5-point underdogs last Thursday. Texas Tech has even more firepower with quarterback Behren Morton getting on track last week en route to 52 first-half points as part of a 66-21 victory over North Texas as 9.5-point favorites. Play: Texas Tech -3.

Utah -2 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 52.5. This is the rare game where there’s been value on both sides because of the line movement. Utah +3 was worth a bet at the opening spread with reliable reports that quarterback Cam Rising would return. But once Rising was confirmed in Monday morning, the number pushed too far for a Utes team going into a difficult venue for the first time in school history. Lean: Oklahoma State +2.

Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma, over/under: 57.5. Has any SEC team further eclipsed preseason expectations more than Tennessee after winning its first three contests by 59 points per game? Has any SEC team further fallen short of preseason expectations than Oklahoma after laboring to beat Houston and Tulane the last two weeks? Some regression on both ends is a scary thought, but going just based off the first three weeks, the Volunteers are in a higher class than the Sooners. Lean: Tennessee -7.

Michigan State +7 at Boston College, over/under: 46. Both these teams are ahead of schedule considering they have first-year coaches. While Boston College might be more reliable with quarterback Thomas Castellanos, Michigan State has the higher upside — and lower floor, to be fair — with electrifying but erratic quarterback Aidan Chiles. It’s much better to back a high-variance team like the Spartans when they’re the underdog. Lean: Michigan State +7.

Top Plays

South Alabama +7 at Appalachian State, over/under: 64.5. Throw out South Alabama’s 87-10 win last week because Football Championship Subdivision opponent Northwestern State is completely helpless. Throw out Appalachian State’s 66-20 loss to Clemson a couple weeks ago because it ran into an angry national power that put on its best performance in years. Even if you just minimize those two disparate results, this line would be at least three points higher. Play: Appalachian State -7.

Florida -4.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 58. Florida coach Billy Napier’s days are numbered regardless, but at least his players are coming out in support of him. That’s typically a strong signal that they’re not going to quit on the season. And while the Gators might be a mediocre mess, the Bulldogs are even worse mired in a bottoming-out rebuild. Play: Florida -4.5.

Kansas +2.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 57.5. Kansas has lost two straight but it had a positive postgame win expectancy — a measure of how likely a team is to win based on the per-play statistics it posted — in both defeats per the SP+ ratings. The Jayhawks have been highly unlucky, and if they can manage their sudden turnover problem, they have more playmakers than the Mountaineers. Play: Kansas +2.5.

Kent State +48.5 at Penn State, over/under: 54.5. Penn State coach James Franklin has shown repeatedly that he will do whatever is necessary to cover the spread no matter how large, and regardless if it requires running up the score at the end of games. He might not even need to resort to measures that drastic taking on a Kent State side that lost 71-0 to Tennessee as 49.5-point underdogs last week. Play: Penn State -48.5.

Georgia Tech +10 at Louisville, over/under: 57.5. What a spot for Louisville, which is coming off a bye week following blowout victories over Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. Translation: The Cardinals have been preparing for this ACC opener for months. And it’s not just the situation; the talent profile on Louisville’s roster is also much superior to Georgia Tech’s. Play: Louisville -10.

Northwestern +10 at Washington, over/under: 42.5. The Huskies had no business losing to the rival Washington State Cougars last week in a game where it outplayed them by every metric except finishing drives. That leaves Washington undervalued for another week going up against a Northwestern side that rates outside of the nation’s top 100 in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. Play: Washington -10.

Iowa -2.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 36.5. Minnesota is first in the nation in EPA per play defense, and while that’s inflated because of a poor schedule strength, it’s at the minimum safe to describe its stop unit as equal to Iowa’s. And offensively it’s not close — Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer is far more capable than Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara. Play: Minnesota +2.5.

Other Games

Play: Virginia -3 at Coastal Carolina

Play: Memphis -9 at Navy

Play: Virginia Tech -3 vs. Rutgers

Play: TCU -2.5 at SMU

Play: Miami -16.5 at South Florida

Play: Florida Atlantic +2.5 at Connecticut

Play: Wyoming +9 at North Texas

Play: South Carolina -27 vs. Akron

Play: Colorado -1.5 vs. Baylor

Play: Oregon State -4.5 vs. Purdue

Lean: Louisiana Tech -3 vs. Tulsa

Lean: UTEP +10 at Colorado State

Lean: Florida State -2.5 vs. California

Lean: BYU +7.5 vs. Kansas State

Lean: Syracuse -9 vs. Stanford

Lean: Louisiana +4 vs. Tulane

Lean: North Carolina -10 vs. James Madison

Lean: Ole Miss -35.5 vs. Georgia Southern

Lean: Middle Tennessee +14.5 vs. Duke

Lean: Miami (Ohio) +28 at Notre Dame

Lean: Buffalo +14 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Western Kentucky +2.5 vs. Toledo

Lean: Liberty -7 vs. East Carolina

Lean: UCLA +26 at LSU

Lean: Sam Houston State -15.5 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Southern Miss +7 at Jacksonville State

Guess: Indiana -28 vs. Charlotte

Guess: New Mexico +15.5 vs. Fresno State

Guess: Missouri -20.5 vs. Vanderbilt

Guess: Kentucky -19 vs. Ohio

Guess: Marshall +40 at Ohio State

Guess: Arkansas +3.5 at Auburn

Guess: Rice -5 vs. Army

Guess: Washington State -13.5 vs. San Jose State

Guess: Bowling Green +23.5 at Texas A&M

Guess: Iowa State -20.5 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: Houston +5.5 at Cincinnati

Guess: Ball State +7 at Central Michigan

Guess: Louisiana-Monroe +45 at Texas

Guess: Temple +6.5 vs. Utah State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or