Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

A suspenseful set of stand-alone, prime-time games through two weeks has served as a reminder to why the NFL reigns supreme in popularity — and of how difficult it can be to bet on.

Five of six such contests to start the season have wound up with both the result and the point spread being decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception was the Buffalo Bills’ wrecking of the Miami Dolphins 31-10 as 1.5-point underdogs last Thursday.

Otherwise, every game has come down to the final minute with point-spread implications hanging in the balance.

The Falcons’ rapid two-minute drill to shock the Eagles 22-21 as 5-point underdogs on "Monday Night Football" was the latest example, but it’s not necessarily even the wildest ending to this point.

Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely’s toe being slightly out of bounds in an NFL season-opening 27-20 loss to the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs is a candidate. The Lions’ overtime drive to beat the Rams 26-20 as 5.5-point favorites in the initial Sunday night game is up there too.

The margins are slimmer than ever. There are tens of millions of dollars riding on the outcome of every NFL game market, and markets that large trend towards efficiency.

That doesn’t mean I’m going to stop trying to beat them. The pick’em has gotten off to a so-so start to the season with a 16-13-1 overall record picking every game against the spread after going 8-8 last week.

I’ve more often been on the wrong end of the stand-alone games, going 2-4 against the spread, but Week 3 would be a great time for that to change. That’s because I’ve got plays on "Thursday Night Football" (New England at the New York Jets), Sunday night (Kansas City at Atlanta) and one of two "Monday Night Football" games (Washington at Cincinnati).

Read my handicaps on those games and the rest on the Week 3 slate below. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.

Plays (6-7-2)

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs No team is more fortunate to have started 2-0 than the Chiefs, which had to see plays fall their way in the final second of both games to win. They don’t look much different than Chiefs’ teams of the past four years that have coasted through the regular season as one of the worst sides to bet on in the NFL with a collective 29-36-2 against the spread record.

New York Jets -6.5 vs. New England Patriots The difficulties first-time coaches face in preparing for "Thursday Night Football" is an oft-repeated narrative but one that might actually have some validity. New England coach Jerod Mayo has a tall task ahead of him going on the road to take on a far more talented New York team. The Patriots’ 1-1 straight-up, 2-0 against the spread start is more flattering than their process as they’ve been outgained by 0.5 net yards per play on the year.

Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Las Vegas Raiders Don’t get carried away with the Raiders’ fourth-quarter offensive outbreak to stun the Ravens as 8-point underdogs; there’s a larger sample indicating they’ll struggle to score points this year. The Panthers should at least have a fighting chance with veteran quarterback Andy Dalton taking over for the outmatched Bryce Young in what still projects as a low-scoring game.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Washington Commanders Cincinnati looked awfully impressive in outplaying Kansas City in Week 2 despite an eventual 26-25 loss as 6.5-point underdogs. Washington is limited on offense and stands as the early frontrunner to have the NFL’s worst defense. That makes the Commanders a bet-against team until further notice.

Leans (7-4-1)

New York Giants +6.5 at Cleveland Browns Stay skeptical of a Browns’ side that might have gotten the most undeserved win of Week 2 after getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play by the Jaguars. The Giants, on the other hand, arguably deserved to beat the Commanders after not giving up a touchdown. Cleveland is clearly better than New York, but its shabby offense should preclude it from laying this high of a price.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 at Pittsburgh Steelers The total has crashed to over/under 35.5 points, the lowest of the season so far, to add further value on the underdog in what looks like an evenly matched game. The Chargers shouldn’t be dinged for playing in back-to-back road games considering they stayed on the East Coast and are practicing in Charlotte, N.C., this week after beating the Panthers 26-3 as 4.5-point favorites.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at New Orleans Saints The lookahead line on this game was Eagles -3.5 before Week 2. And yes, while that number was too high and Philadelphia looked poor even before its late-game collapse to Atlanta, this might be too big of a move. New Orleans has won its first two games by a combined 62 points and there’s nowhere to go but down.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans The Packers keep giving hints that quarterback Jordan Love could return much sooner than expected from an MCL strain. Maybe it’s far-fetched, and it probably won’t happen, but if there’s any positive development in his status, this number will fly the other way.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. Houston Texans The Vikings sit fourth in the league in expected points added (EPA) per play despite having played an above-average schedule strength by virtue of facing, and beating, the betting market’s top power-rated team coming into the season last week in the 49ers. That’s four spots ahead of the Texans, enough to suggest the gap between these teams is smaller than suggested.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos The Broncos’ offense looks like it could be far and away the league’s worst with rookie quarterback Bo Nix overwhelmed and not a lot of talent around him to make up for mistakes. They shouldn’t be less than a full touchdown underdog on the road to any competent opponent, a category the three-time defending NFC South champion Buccaneers belong in.

Dallas Cowboys +1.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Expect both defenses to be sharp after getting embarrassed in upset losses last week — the Cowboys in the first half of a 44-19 defeat to the Saints and the Ravens late in a 26-23 setback to the Raiders — and take under 49 points. If it indeed turns out to be a low-scoring game, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons should feast against a sinking Ravens offensive line.

Guesses (3-2)

San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Los Angeles Rams Getting the 7 requires laying -115 (i.e. risking $115 to win $100), but that’s better than laying 7.5 at -110. The best way to bet this game is to tease the 49ers down to -1.5 and the Chargers up to +8 at shops with two-team, six-point teasers available at -125 (the shortest odds locally) or better. The 49ers are a big favorite for a beaten-up team, but the Rams’ injury list is even more significant.

Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Chicago Bears The number looks exactly right, but in these situations, I default to backing the better offense, coach and quarterback. Indianapolis checks all three of those boxes as Chicago is more defensively led, Shane Steichen has posted better results than Matt Eberflus and Anthony Richardson is further along than Caleb Williams.

Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Miami was all set up to be the pick — even a lean — when this spread sat at 6.5 but it’s moved ever-so-slightly too far since then. Seattle got gifted an incredibly easy pair of offenses to start the season against so don’t get too carried away with the success of defensive-wiz coach Mike Macdonald’s unit but they have been impressive. They get another potentially plus matchup this week against Miami backup quarterback Skylar Thompson.

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 at Buffalo Bills Injuries are piling up on the Bills’ defense for what seems like the umpteenth consecutive year. There’s no value on either side at this number but expect an inspired effort from a Jaguars’ team that should have too much talent to be staring at a potential 0-3 start to the season.

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Detroit Lions Detroit has taken big money closer to game time in back-to-back weeks to start the season, so the best strategy is to wait and see if an Arizona +3.5 becomes available. The Cardinals would be a lean at that point, as they’ve looked much better than expected to start the season and rate fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or