College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 5

Bookmakers can be awfully sharp. Sometimes they just get it right.

This column identifies plays weekly by pointing out where a point spread was or would have been previously and interpreting whether the movement or a team’s shifting perception is justified or not.

But some games don’t move much if at all. Take the biggest game of the season so far and the headliner of a jam-packed Week 5 slate for instance.

One major national sportsbook put lines out on a handful of games of the year all the way back in January, shortly after the 2023 College Football Playoff national championship. Included in that set of point spread was Georgia -2.5 at Alabama in Week 5.

Fast forward more than eight months later and, despite the ever-changing nature of college football rosters and programs, the line is still basically the same.

Georgia is now anywhere from a 1- to 2-point favorite over Alabama in the powerhouse programs’ first regular-season meeting since 2020, a 41-24 Crimson Tide victory as 6-point favorites. Alabama has gone 5-1 straight-up, 3-3 against the spread against Georgia under current coach Kirby Smart, but this will mark the first matchup with new Crimson Tide head Kalen DeBoer on the sidelines after the retirement of Nick Saban.

Georgia therefore has the continuity and infrastructure edges, but Alabama has its advantages too. DeBoer’s renowned offensive scheme has looked as potent as ever in his first three games at the helm with a perfect-fit quarterback in Jalen Milroe and a plethora of playmakers including local product/Liberty High grad Germie Bernard.  

There are strong cases to be made for both sides, but one factor that can’t be referenced is a big line move. The number is sitting right where it’s been from the beginning.

Read below for my point-spread pick on Georgia at Alabama along with every other Football Bowl Subdivision game this week. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence. The column stayed hot last week with a 31-22-1 against the spread record (10-8 on plays, 12-6-1 on leans, 9-8 on guesses) to bring the season total to 113-79-2 (35-31 on plays, 44-25-2 on leans, 34-23 on guesses).

Top Games

Kentucky +18 at Ole Miss, over/under: 52.5. Despite flirting with playing more uptempo this season, Kentucky has settled into its usual spot near the bottom of the nation in pace. That will be important here as the Wildcats should try to shorten the game. They have enough muscle up front to hang with the Rebels and keep them from adding to their barnstorm of blowouts to start the season. Lean: Kentucky +18.

Louisville +6 at Notre Dame, over/under: 48.5. The Cardinals sit sixth in the nation in net yards per play, ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play and ninth in success rate. Yes, they haven’t played the toughest schedule, but the way they’ve stomped their way to 3-0 straight-up and against the spread makes it possible they’re a great team. A great team shouldn’t be a getting a touchdown against a banged-up Notre Dame side. Lean: Louisville +6.  

Ohio State -25 at Michigan State, over/under: 48.5. New Spartans coach Jonathan Smith’s teams have usually shown up in spots like this, as he’s 24-15 against the spread lifetime as an underdog as a head coach. That might not be predictive, and Ohio State might just be the buzzsaw many have hailed it as, but confidence in Smith is as useful as anything else to go off of in a game where the number looks right. Guess: Michigan State +25.

Georgia -1 at Alabama, over/under: 48. If the occasional problems Alabama has encountered in the trenches this season ever come back to bite the Crimson Tide in a big way, it should be here against the Bulldogs. Alabama is not outmatched from a skill or sideline perspective — DeBoer is arguably sharper in a schematic sense than Smart — but Georgia should win the battle at the line of scrimmage. That could be the biggest factor in a close game. Guess: Georgia -1.    

Illinois +17 at Penn State, over/under: 48. Take the handicap from the last game and flip it. Illinois should be able to hold its own, if not more, against Penn State up front, but the gap on the edges of the field couldn’t be tilted wider in favor of the home team. Illinois’ defense probably doesn’t have the athletes to slow Penn State running back Nick Singleton or top receiver Omari Evans. Lean: Penn State -17.

Washington State +8 at Boise State, over/under: 65. Most sports books opened this number at a perfectly reasonable -6.5 but it’s since blown through the 7 with little resistance. That’s too much for Boise State to give considering Washington State has the more explosive passing game and the most impressive win among these two teams, a 37-16 blasting of Texas Tech as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 2. Play: Washington State +8.

Arizona +12.5 at Utah, over/under: 50.5. Utah’s home-field advantage is as strong as advertised at Rice-Eccles Stadium, but Arizona have been frequent visitors for the last decade and shouldn’t be as affected as other new conference opponents. The Wildcats are erratic but variance can be welcomed in highly lined games especially when the underdog has a duo as explosive as quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tet McMillan. Lean: Arizona +12.5.    

Top Plays

Iowa State -13.5 at Houston, over/under: 43.5. The Cougars’ underlying statistical profile is stronger than a couple embarrassing results, including last week’s 34-0 loss at Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs, indicate. Their biggest problems have been turnover luck, which should positively regress, and giving up explosive plays, which isn’t Iowa State’s strength. Play: Houston +13.5.

Nebraska -9.5 at Purdue, over/under: 49. Having thrown for eight touchdowns to two interceptions at a clip of 8.4 yards per pass attempt, Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has been even better than advertised. This might be his easiest matchup yet with the moribund Boilermakers sitting 117^th in the nation in EPA per pass defense. Play: Nebraska -9.5.

Maryland +6.5 at Indiana, over/under: 55.5. The Hoosiers’ 4-0 straight-up and against the spread start to the season is no fluke; this is a team strong across the roster that both hits big plays and wears down opponents. Maryland is in more of a rebuilding mode. The 6.5-point line requires laying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) but that’s better than playing -7 at -110.  Play: Indiana -6.5.

Texas State -9 at Sam Houston State, over/under: 56.5. The market has caught up to how well Texas State coach G.J. Kinne has upgraded his program, but is still lagging in accounting for the similar strides Sam Houston coach K.C. Keeler made with his roster this year. The Bearkats look like Conference USA contenders behind a bevy of transfers including run-first quarterback Hunter Watson and deep threat receiver Qua’Vez Humphreys.  Play: Sam Houston State +9.

San Diego State +3 at Central Michigan, over/under: 54.5. San Diego State’s offense has looked horrendous in two consecutive straight-up and against the spread losses but both California and Oregon State have some talent on defense. That’s more than can be said for a Central Michigan fresh off giving up more than 400 yards and 27 first downs to Ball State in a narrow 37-34 win as 6.5-point favorites. Play: San Diego State +3.

Wisconsin +14.5 at USC, over/under: 50. The Badgers have been a mess ever since coach Luke Fickell arrived, even when he’s had a proven and experienced quarterback behind center. The situation should worsen with sophomore backup Braedyn Locke forced into duty for the second straight year. Don’t downgrade USC, which may have outplayed Michigan last week despite a 27-24 loss as 4-point favorites. Play: USC -14.5.

UTSA +3.5 at East Carolina, over/under: 54.5. Having failed to cover in each of its three FBS games so far by an average of 20 points per game, the Roadrunners are in a clear rebuilding season. The Pirates are closer to the peak of their competitive cycle and deserve some credit for jumping out to a 17-0 lead over Liberty last week even though it ended in a disappointing (and misleading) 35-24 loss. Play: East Carolina -3.5.

Other Games

Play: Old Dominion +9.5 at Bowling Green

Play: Troy -7.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Play: Massachusetts +18.5 at Miami (Ohio)

Play: Texas A&M -3.5 vs. Arkansas

Play: Ohio -12 vs. Akron

Play: Liberty -3 at Appalachian State

Play: New Mexico State +9 vs. New Mexico

Play: Wyoming +4 vs. Air Force

Play: North Carolina +3 at Duke

Play: Washington +3 at Rutgers

Play: Colorado +14 at UCF

Play: Georgia Southern +3 at Georgia State

Play: Tulane -6.5 vs. South Florida

Lean: Oklahoma -2 at Auburn

Lean: James Madison -19.5 vs. Ball State

Lean: Northern Illinois +7.5 at NC State

Lean: Boston College -12.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Lean: Oklahoma State +6.5 at Kansas State

Lean: Virginia Tech +20 at Miami

Lean: Florida International +3 vs. Louisiana Tech

Lean: Western Michigan +6 at Marshall

Lean: Navy -3.5 at UAB

Lean: Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Cincinnati

Lean: Stanford +22 at Clemson

Lean: Fresno State +4 at UNLV

Lean: Charlotte +7 at Rice

Lean: Wake Forest -2.5 vs. Louisiana

Lean: Kent State +14 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: SMU -5 vs. Florida State

Guess: South Alabama +21.5 at LSU

Guess: Memphis -24.5 vs. Middle Tennessee

Guess: Baylor -2.5 vs. BYU

Guess: Michigan -9 vs. Minnesota

Guess: Connecticut -5 vs. Buffalo

Guess: Temple +13.5 vs. Army

Guess: Tulsa +6.5 at North Texas

Guess: Kansas -1.5 vs. TCU

Guess: UCLA +24.5 vs. Oregon

Guess: Texas -38.5 vs. Mississippi State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or