Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

The first Monday Night Football doubleheader of the year couldn’t have been more eventful from a futures betting standpoint.

A new favorite emerged in each of arguably the two most popular awards betting markets, Most Valuable Player and Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen eclipsed Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the former pool for the first time since it was posted after last year’s Super Bowl. Allen used a 307-total yard, four-touchdown performance in a Bills’ 47-10 win over the Jaguars as 4.5-point favorites to trim down to a +200 (i.e. risking $100 to win $200) favorite at most sports books.

Mahomes is the only other player in single digits, now sitting at +350 at Circa Sports.

But Allen somehow got overshadowed by Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who set a rookie record by completing 91.3% of his passes in a 38-33 victory over the Bengals as 7.5-point underdogs.

Daniels surpassed Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who had been the favorite since odds were posted following the NFL Draft in April. Williams is now the third choice at +450, also trailing Giants receiver Malik Nabers who had two touchdown catches Sunday in an upset win over the Browns.

Neither Allen’s nor Daniels’ big days were ideal for the pick’em, which lost both games to drop the Week 3 record picking every game to 8-8. The season mark now stands at 24-21-3.  

It’s another Monday Night Football doubleheader this week, and hopefully the column can peg the outcomes of Tennessee at Miami and Seattle at Detroit better.

Read my handicaps on those games and the rest on the Week 4 slate below. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.  

Plays (8-9-2)

Indianapolis Colts +2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers If anyone can scheme up a way to crack a Steelers’ defense that’s been overpowering so far, it should be Colts coach Shane Steichen. Indianapolis put up an impressive 5.7 yards per play on a similarly talented Chicago stop unit in a 21-16 victory as 1-point favorites last week.

Chicago Bears -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams There might not be a more misleading result all year than the Rams’ wild  27-24 comeback victory over the 49ers last week as 6.5-point underdogs. The Rams were outgained by 1.1 yards per play and never led until the final two seconds. They caught fire and every break late, but that’s not repeatable especially with arguably the NFL’s most dire injury situation.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders As great as Daniels has been, the Washington defense has been equally awful. The Commanders’ stop unit rates as the eighth-worst of the last 45 years through three weeks by the DVOA ratings. It’s difficult to imagine Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray not threatening at least 30 points, and putting too much pressure on Daniels to keep up.   

Tennessee Titans +1 at Miami Dolphins The mere thought of emergency quarterback Tim Boyle starting for the Dolphins should preclude them from being favored over any team. The Titans have been slightly better than the Dolphins this year by every efficiency metric, and that’s with the latter having mostly been able to play actual NFL-caliber quarterbacks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Houston Texans This number jumped up 2.5 points off the Jaguars’ beatdown on Monday Night Football, but the Texans didn’t look much better in their own humbling Week 2 loss, 34-7 to the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites. Unless the Jaguars are a complete lost cause — a real possibility at 0-3  — they aren’t at a big enough personnel disadvantage to be a touchdown underdog to the Texans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Buccaneers have been extremely banged up on defense but are likely to get some of their starters back for Week 4. The Eagles’ injury list now becomes a bigger concern especially with DeVonta Smith in the concussion protocol to cut into the team’s already dwindling options at receiver with top target A.J. Brown nursing a hamstring injury.

Leans (11-7-1)

Detroit Lions -4 vs. Seattle Seahawks A big part of Seattle’s 3-0 straight-up start to the season has been the success of its defensive line, but now almost everyone in the rotation is injured. That makes for a nightmare matchup against a Lions’ offensive line that might be the best in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City is 3-0, but it’s at -0.3 net yards per play and seemingly at some point will stop getting every single late-game break. This line clearly presupposes that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will not play with an ankle injury but the probability that he heals enough to start for a second week in a row might be higher than perception.

New Orleans Saints +2 at Atlanta Falcons Buy the slight dip on the Saints, which still rank second in expected points added (EPA) per play and the DVOA ratings despite a 15-12 loss to the Eagles as 2.5-point favorites last week. The Falcons have been a disappointment thus far by the all-encompassing metrics, rating 17^th in DVOA and 23^rd in EPA per play.

Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Carolina didn’t just upset Las Vegas on the road  last week; it obliterated the home team to a tune much worse than the 36-22 final season indicated. This line only dropped 2.5 points from the lookahead, and there’s an argument to be made that Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton represents a bigger upgrade than that over the benched Bryce Young.   

Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings A couple shops have the Packers at -135 on moneyline, and that’s technically the better bet than laying increased juice like -120 on the 2.5-point spread. The Vikings’ defensive ascent might be real, but they’re due some regression offensively with quarterback Sam Darnold having made a higher rate of turnover-worthy throws than have become interceptions.

New York Giants +5.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The Cowboys should win this game — and might have even been the pick at the opening price of -4.5 — but that doesn’t mean their problems don’t stretch far and wide considering they’re currently 30^th in the NFL in EPA. The Giants’ offense has shown signs of life with Nabers already looking like one of the best receivers in the league and should be able to score enough on a declining defense to stay competitive.

Guesses (5-5)

Baltimore Ravens -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Baltimore’s run game seemed to click in a 28-25 victory over Dallas as 1.5-point favorites last week with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combining for 238 rushing yards. Buffalo’s run defense was mediocre last year and could be vulnerable once again this season.

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Both teams are really beaten up, but the Browns’ issues seem more concerning considering they have a cluster injury among the offensive line and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett is hobbled. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce has shown a stubborn desire to winning games up front, and this is one where his persistence could pay off.  

New England Patriots +10 at San Francisco 49ers Given the 49ers’ current dearth of skill players and the Patriots’ still-formidable defense, it’s hard to see the home team scoring enough points to post a blowout. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy will again be forced to make a lot of plays scrambling with breakout New England edge rusher Keion White coming after him.

Denver Broncos +7.5 at New York Jets Bet over 38.5 points and stay away from the point spread in this matchup. The Jets’ defense has dipped from its lofty perch of the last two years on a per-play basis, largely due to injuries and absences, but still might be too talented for Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix to solve. They'd be the pick at -7, but the extra half point makes it a harder sell.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or