Lack of dominant horse could make for exciting Kentucky Derby

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, May 6, 2011 | 8 p.m.

A wide-open field has become as much a staple of the Kentucky Derby as mint juleps and the bed of roses awarded to the winner recently.

For the third straight year, no single horse will enter horse racing’s biggest competition as a commanding favorite. Anything could happen in the race.

“I know a lot of people say that, but it really applies this year,” said Dan Shapiro, who oversees racing for Lucky’s sports books. “There are 19 horses in the field and there are 10 of them that wouldn’t surprise me if they won.”

The 137th annual Kentucky Derby runs Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., with post time at approximately 3:25 p.m. on NBC. It’s the most significant day of the year for race books and perhaps the only time when racing takes center stage in Las Vegas.

Some bookmakers took a sigh of relief when it became official Friday that Uncle Mo, who drew the No. 18 post in the mile-and-a-quarter long race, was scratched due to an unidentified stomach illness. Less than a month ago, it looked like Uncle Mo would be the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Shapiro, who used to work at Churchill Downs, said Lucky’s had steady money come in on Uncle Mo ever since October, when he listed the colt at 20-to-1 to win the derby.

“We took a lot of action on him,” Shapiro said. “We had quite a bit of liability on him, so Uncle Mo not racing was definitely a good thing for us.”

Churchill Downs posted Uncle Mo as the second favorite in the race earlier this week at 9-to-2. At 4-to-1 odds, Dialed In is this year’s slight favorite.

“It’s a big thing,” Dialed In’s famed trainer Nick Zito told the Associated Press, “and he deserves it.”

Dialed In benefited from a favorable post draw earlier this week. He will start from the No. 8 post, a position that has produced 10 winners in the derby.

Two of them have come in the last five years as Barbaro started his chase for the Triple Crown with a win in 2006 and Mine That Bird shocked fans as a long shot in 2009.

“I think anything in the middle of the pack in this race is good,” Shapiro said. “You definitely don’t want to be on the rail.”

Last year’s favorite, Lookin at Lucky, was trapped with No. 1 position and couldn’t find any room to operate en route to a sixth-place finish. One of the best pure speed horses in this year’s derby, Archarcharch, drew the first post position.

Despite the unfavorable spot, Archarcharch is still listed at 10-to-1 odds to win. Shapiro offered two picks to look out for — No. 13 Mucho Macho Man at 12-to-1 and No. 15 Midnight Interlude at 10-to-1.

“In a race like this, what I would do is just pick a bunch of horses you like that are long shots and box them in the exacta or trifecta,” Shapiro said. “It’s the kind of year where it’s hard to spread it out on one horse.”

Kathy Ritvo will try to become the first female trainer to win a Kentucky Derby with Mucho Macho Man. Just three years ago, Ritvo received a heart transplant to save her from degenerative heart disease.

Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times, owns and trains Midnight Interlude.

“You’re never safe until you put that saddle on, because anything could happen,” Baffert told the Associated Press. “Everybody says there's no woofing in your sport. That's because we don't want to jinx ourselves. You woof afterwards, when you win."

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.