Five tips and picks for betting the NFL preseason

The Cantor Sports Book at Silverton held its grand opening Thursday, Nov. 29, 2012. The 2,000 square-foot sports book features a 2.35 million LED pixel video screen that can show four feature sporting events at once.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 8, 2013 | 2 a.m.

Local bookmakers opened the spread on the first NFL exhibition of the year, Sunday’s annual Hall of Fame Game, at minus-1 in favor of the Dallas Cowboys over the Miami Dolphins.

By kickoff time in Canton, Ohio, the Dolphins were as high as 3.5-point favorites. And gamblers were still betting on them.

The Cowboys rode an early 17-point lead to a 24-20 victory and easy cover. Regardless of the outcome, however, taking Miami late was a bad bet.

Wagering on a football team that’s had a 4.5-point line move in its favor is always a recipe for disaster and unprofitable approach, especially in the preseason. With lower-scoring games on average and a higher volatility of outcomes, every point on the betting line is more valuable during the exhibition portion of the schedule.

Not to mention, straying from adverse numbers is just a smart exercise in preparation for the real games. It’s the Sun’s leading tip for betting on the preseason, which gets into full swing tonight with six more games.

Check out four more tips along with a few picks below.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Know the coaches

Sticking with the Hall of Fame Game, there was another reason to shun the Dolphins.

In his first year as Miami’s head coach in 2012, Joe Philbin went 0-4 against the spread in the preseason. There’s no single handicapping factor more important than how a coach approaches the preseason.

Sharp bettors have profited over the years betting against coaches like Philbin and Kansas City’s Andy Reid (who has a 25-28-3 spread record but only after a 6-2 run the past two years), who don’t emphasize winning before the season actually begins.

On the flip side, Detroit’s Jim Schwartz and Seattle’s Pete Carroll put more stock into building team morale and have covered more than 60 percent of their career exhibition matchups.

NFL coaches’ spread history in the preseason is readily available all over the Internet, but here’s a convenient chart from Beyond the Bets.
Evan Vucci / AP

Analyze the quarterbacks

Eavesdrop on some tourists’ conversations in sports books today. Someone clueless on the preseason will see “Denver at San Francisco” on the board and say something like, “Wow, Peyton Manning vs. Colin Kaepernick.”

But that marquee signal-caller matchup is never going to take place in the first exhibition matchup. If Kaepernick and Manning last more than two possessions this evening, it would be an upset.

It’s true, quarterback is the most important position in the preseason just like any other time. But the true matchup is more like Denver’s Brock Osweiler and Zac Dystert against San Francisco’s Colt McCoy and Scott Tolzein.

Those guys will take the vast majority of the snaps, so handicapping how prepared and positioned for success they are is far more beneficial than debating whether Von Miller can contain Kaepernick on the edge.
AP

Don't forget about overall depth

Glance at depth charts. Research position battles. Look up unknown names.

Knowing all the quarterbacks is well and good, but the work must go deeper to enable success.

The deepest and most motivated teams are going to fare the best in the preseason. The problem is, it’s not always apparent what teams fit those descriptions without some digging.

A decent place to start is looking at teams coming off disappointing seasons where they clearly fell short of expectations. For instance, the Detroit Lions and New York Jets, who play Friday, have several spots up for grabs that could lead to more snaps for better players.

Top-heavy teams that spent money in free agency to improve their Super Bowl prospects — potentially the Atlanta Falcons and Broncos this year — might not have as many driven competitors coming off of the bench.
Leila Navidi

Watch and learn

This might sound self-explanatory, but it’s pointless to gamble heavy on teams you’ve never seen.

And, aside from Week 3, when most teams run a “dress rehearsal,” these preseason teams are complete unknowns. The uniforms are the only things that are the same from the versions that will take the field in September.

Most of the players in the game late won’t even make the roster, and several others will stick to special teams. A way to combat the anonymity is to catch the first two weeks’ worth of games.

There are all kinds of secrets available to uncover. Examples could include an uber-talented undrafted free agent dominating mop-up time or a coordinator staying aggressive with play calling until the final whistle.

Take note and make use of observations going forward.
Associated Press

Now for some picks

Let’s make the iffy leap in trying to apply some of those lessons to tonight’s games.

Below are four leans with hopes of improving a 1-0 preseason record (Dallas plus-3 in the Hall of Fame Game was posted on twitter). Games are listed in order of kickoff times.

Baltimore plus-3.5 at Tampa Bay

John Harbaugh has a winning record against the spread in preseason games. Tyrod Taylor and Caleb Hanie will get most of the Ravens' quarterback snaps, which is a clear advantage over Mike Glennon and Adam Weber for the Buccaneers.

Washington plus-2.5 at Tennessee

Trust in Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, who’s constantly tinkering and looking to win in the preseason. His 44-34-2 preseason record against the spread speaks for itself.

San Francisco minus-3 vs. Denver

Click back to the quarterback slide. Colt McCoy is by far the most experienced and best quarterback that will stay on the field for longer than a couple drives in this game. 49ers coach John Harbaugh challenged the former Cleveland Browns starter by saying he’s not guaranteed the backup spot going into the season.

San Diego plus-2.5 vs. Seattle

The line has moved 2.5 points in favor of the Seahawks despite the Chargers having more spots up for grabs. Additionally, new San Diego coach Mike McCoy will want to make an impression in front of the home fans.