Analysis: Aldo vs. McGregor the biggest fight among lighter classes in UFC history

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, March 24, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Hyperbole sticks to Conor McGregor as snugly as the crowned gorilla tattooed across his chest.

The 26-year-old featherweight fancies himself as the greatest ever after just five fights in the octagon. UFC President Dana White compared the brash Irishman’s ascent to those he had seen from superstars Chuck Liddell and Ronda Rousey.

Even famous sports play-by-play man Joe Buck, of all people, christened McGregor “the Irish Muhammad Ali.”

It’s enough that those who follow mixed martial arts the closest have developed an internal mute function for whenever superlatives start flying in the direction of “The Notorious.” But there’s one similarly sounding claim at the moment that’s no embellishment: McGregor’s next fight will go down as the biggest in the history of the UFC’s smaller weight classes.

Featherweight champion Jose Aldo’s title defense against McGregor headlines this year’s annual International Fight Week festivities in the main event of UFC 189 on July 11 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. It’s more of a can’t-miss encounter than any fight that’s ever taken place in the lightweight, featherweight, bantamweight or flyweight divisions in the UFC.

“I think this is going to smash pay-per-view records,” McGregor said Monday. “I think we’re going to compete with Mayweather-Pacquiao.”

That’s a further exaggeration than all of the rest combined but McGregor would be onto something if he stuck to his equals. The UFC began implementing its three lightest divisions four years ago and has yet to stage a true blockbuster.

The most buys for a card headlined by one of the three classes was 330,000 for an Aldo title defense against Frankie Edgar at UFC 156, according to estimates from the pay-per-view database at MMAPayout.com. Aldo vs. McGregor should wallop that figure.

B.J. Penn had four fights that sold better during his reign atop the lightweight class, which was fully added years after the four traditionally premier divisions. McGregor and Aldo have the chance to beat out three — UFC 101 tallied a lofty 850,000 buys assisted by Anderson Silva in the co-main event — but their fight is more compelling than all of them.

Penn was always a heavy favorite. Sports books list Aldo and McGregor at a pick’em price.

Meaningful measures exist far beyond pay-per-view anyway.

There’s a reason the UFC chose the fight for its largest event of the year, where approximately 50,000 people descend upon Las Vegas for a week full of activities like the UFC Fan Expo. The promotion could have just as easily assigned its best fighter, light heavyweight Jon Jones who fights six weeks earlier, into the position.

There’s a reason McGregor vs. Aldo is only the second time in history that a smaller weight class’ championship bout headlines over its big brother, with Robbie Lawler slated to defend his welterweight strap against Rory MacDonald in the co-main event. The first exception was made for a champion vs. champion matchup between bantamweights Dominick Cruz vs. Renan Barao at UFC 169, though Cruz later pulled out with an injury.

There’s a reason McGregor and Aldo are in the middle of the longest press tour ever for two fighters. Las Vegas was the second stop of an eight-city, 12-day journey that spans five countries, starting in Rio de Janeiro and finishing in London.

“We’re ahead of the 170-pound division, the division that ran the game for so long,” McGregor said. “Now we have jets that take us to L.A., to New York, to Boston. We closed down the Las Vegas Strip. We did a movie last night on that strip. Like I said, it’s the McGregor division.”

As with most of McGregor’s statements, that’s not the whole truth. The whole truth is, McGregor is benefitting from Aldo as much as the inverse.

McGregor has built a giant following, but it wouldn’t mean as much without a champion of Aldo’s dominance to create a rival. Aldo hasn’t lost in a decade and ranks fourth all-time with seven consecutive UFC title defenses.

He’d be out to tie Silva’s record of 10 against McGregor if his two defenses in the WEC, the UFC’s sister promotion that merged to create the division in 2011, counted. Aldo labeled McGregor the joker while calling himself king, but can’t deny that the contention has given him a level of attention that his accomplishments alone never quite produced.

“For me, it’s amazing,” Aldo said through a translator. “I’ve been fighting on big shows since I was in the UFC so to be in Vegas and be a part of International Fight Week, it’s great for me.”

On the same day Buck went overboard with his praise, McGregor knocked out Dennis Siver in the first round of a fight that set records with more than 3 million viewers of the Fox Sports 1 telecast. He immediately leapt over the cage and confronted Aldo, who laughed behind security guards in the first row.

A better reaction would have been to start counting, computing all the money he stood to make with an enemy like McGregor bursting onto the scene.

McGregor’s persona is inexorably linked with overstatements, but for the next four months, a lot of the remarks about the status of the fight with Aldo will check out.

“I don’t think the beautiful city of Las Vegas knows what it’s in for,” McGregor said.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.