Slam dunks and air balls in NBA wagering

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Oct. 26, 2015 | 2 a.m.

A congregation of gamblers gathered on a late September morning at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook betting windows, creating a scene not all that unusual for casinos in the fall.

The only difference was these bettors weren’t at the city’s largest sports book to wager on football. They were there to bet basketball, awaiting the reveal of over/under season win totals for all 30 NBA teams.

“The minute we got them up, we were getting play on them,” said Jeff Sherman, the Superbook’s assistant director and head NBA oddsmaker. “And every day since, there’s been more and more. There’s just so much interest now. It has become extremely popular.”

As recently as five years ago, NBA betting was mostly an afterthought that drew little volume until the playoffs began in April. But Sherman reports a rise in action in recent years.

Now, there’s hardly an offseason, as Sherman posted odds to win the 2015-16 NBA title in June during this year’s championship series, and saw a reaction similar to that for the over/unders.

“It just goes back to the overall increase in interest in the league,” Sherman said. “I think one reason is the new personalities and young guys, like we saw with Stephen Curry winning the MVP last year. As long as there are so many great young players coming in to challenge the veterans, it’s going to keep going.”

With the NBA season beginning Oct. 27, Sherman shared the most popular preseason bets from the over/unders and futures odds, as well as some of his own thoughts.

What the bettors like

• Sacramento Kings over 30.5 wins. Sherman gave the Kings a win total that implies they will fall far short of the playoffs. He was underwhelmed by a free-agent splurge on veterans Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli, Kosta Koufos and Caron Butler.

The betting market is more optimistic that Sacramento can compete for one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference, pushing the over/under to 35.5 from an opener of 30.5.

“I think people saw a lot of free agents with names they’ve heard of,” Sherman said. “They got excited about

Rajon Rondo going there. But if you follow basketball, you know Rondo was more of a detriment, not a help, when he went to the Mavericks.”

• New York Knicks under 31.5 wins. The Knicks are coming off their worst season in history, going 17-65 in their first year with Phil Jackson as franchise president. Bettors don’t see the situation improving much, dropping New York’s over/under to 29.5.

Sherman says there are reasons for optimism — Carmelo Anthony missed more than half of last season, and the off-season signings of Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are underrated.

“We feel like things went as poorly as they possibly could last year and can see things getting better for them,” Sherman said.

• Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA Finals at 300-to-1. Las Vegas is living up to its reputation as a Lakers town. Bettors are undeterred by Los Angeles pinning its hopes on a 37-year-old Kobe Bryant coming off of three consecutive season-ending injuries. The Superbook has printed more tickets only on the San Antonio Spurs at 4-to-1 and the Los Angeles Clippers at 8-to-1, giving it mammoth liability if the Lakers prevail.

Sherman’s not worried.

“It’s just crazy,” he said. “You have to be realistic, and with what they have constructed, they’re just not winning the title this year.”

What the bookmaker likes

• Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA Finals at 6-to-1. With both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on the floor, the difference between the Thunder and defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors is negligible for the top team in Sherman’s power ratings. Even though Oklahoma City is healthy going into the season, bettors are staying away.

“With respect to what the odds are, they seem to offer the most value among teams with a legitimate chance to win the title,” Sherman said.

• Boston Celtics over 42.5 wins. The Celtics plan to make up for their lack of superstars with depth. They have as many as 12 players capable of producing at an above-average level.

But Sherman likes Boston mostly because of the genius of coach Brad Stevens.

“He has been there for two years, and he’s got guys who can fit into his system,” Sherman said. “If you look at the direction these guys were going late last year, they were one of the teams on the rise.”

• Portland Trailblazers under 27 wins. Sherman knows how much has been made of All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge leaving Portland for San Antonio. But he doesn’t think the public realizes the effect of also losing four other frequent starters, including Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum.

“They are really stripped down and in rebuilding mode,” Sherman said. “It’s already reflected in the number, but Portland has just lost so much from last year and had the most drastic swing in its win total from last year to this year.”

What we like

• Phoenix Suns over 36.5 wins. The Suns won 39 games last season despite dismantling a flawed roster and practically starting anew at the trade deadline. They’ve addressed two major issues in defensive mediocrity and below average 3-point shooting by signing center Tyson Chandler and drafting guard Devin Booker, respectively. Jeff Hornacek is one of the better coaches in the NBA.

• Los Angeles Clippers under 56.5 wins. Most of the teams closely chasing the Warriors in the West — the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder — improved appreciably in the offseason, but did the Clippers? Their two prized acquisitions were Paul Pierce, who just turned 38 years old, and Lance Stephenson, who was among the league’s most inefficient players last year. A promise to further incorporate DeAndre Jordan into the offense also is troubling given that it would take away from what the Clippers do best in running the pick-and-roll with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

• Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Finals at 4-to-1. The Warriors never received their full due last year for posting one of the best seasons in NBA history. They outscored opponents by more than 10 points per game in recording 67 victories, a mark only five teams have eclipsed. With virtually everyone back, no other team deserves to be above Golden State on the betting board.