Analysis: Rebels should roll with Nick Blair at center vs. San Diego State

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Friday, Jan. 25, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Some of the mankind’s greatest achievements have been discovered by accident. Penicillin. The X-ray. Tom Brady.

Could UNLV’s newfound spread offense be added to that list?

The Rebels are rolling right now, sporting a 5-1 record in Mountain West play thanks in large part to an efficient offense that has been unlocked entirely by chance.

When injuries knocked out big men Shakur Juiston, Cheickna Dembele and Mbacke Diong in succession around the start of conference play, UNLV coach Marvin Menzies needed bodies to bolster the frontcourt rotation. After some tinkering, Menzies turned to junior walk-on Nick Blair, despite Blair having little experience at center (probably because he stands 6-foot-5).

The results have been eye-opening. Blair’s ability to shoot from the outside and finish around the rim has given the Rebels an added dimension that is making them extremely difficult to defend. Against New Mexico on Tuesday, Blair dropped a career-high 26 points, knocking down four 3-pointers in the process as the Lobos seemingly had no plan for defending UNLV’s super-small lineups.

New Mexico isn’t the only Mountain West team that has struggled to contain Blair. Through six league games, Blair has logged 60 minutes at center; during that time, UNLV has outscored opponents 132-109. That works out to a plus/minus rating of +15.3 per 40 minutes.

With anyone else at center in MWC play, the Rebels are +8.4 per 40 minutes.

While Blair’s red-hot shooting (7-of-10 3FGs) will likely level out in upcoming games, he understands the impact his offensive game has on opposing defenses.

“I think it helps out a lot,” Blair said. “It really puts pressure on the other team, helps us spread our offense out, have better spacing. I think it helps out a lot when you have basically four guards out there at some points, maybe even four with Joel [Ntambwe].”

In the last four games, Blair is averaging 10.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in 20 minutes per contest. He is making 60.9 percent of his shots, and UNLV is 3-1 in those games.

Until the rest of the Mountain West proves it has figured out a blueprint to exploit the Blair-at-center lineup, UNLV should ride the wave. That means giving Blair extended minutes again at San Diego State on Saturday.

The Aztecs have several hybrid-type players who could match up with Blair, and SDSU is at its best when attacking the basket offensively. That could force Blair into a rim-protecting role that doesn’t play to his strengths, which is something Air Force was able to exploit in a 106-88 win over UNLV on Jan. 16.

The offensive trade-off is worth the risk, however. Because Blair is a threat to knock down a couple 3-pointers, San Diego State will have to stick a defender close to him on the perimeter. That will open up more driving lanes for guards Amauri Hardy and Noah Robotham, both of whom have thrived with the additional space provided by small-ball lineups.

That recipe has been working for UNLV. With Blair at center, the Rebels are averaging 87.5 points per 40 minutes in MWC play.

Menzies has long been known as an advocate for traditional post players, but after seeing the effect Blair has had on the offense, it sounds like the coach may be coming around on small-ball.

As long as Blair can hold up defensively against bigger players, Menzies can continue to play him and reap the offensive benefits.

“I think a lot of people get hung up on numbers, but we really are going to almost positionless basketball nowadays,” Menzies said. “Think about it — we’re playing two forwards. Nick’s not a center. He’s playing a center position, but he’s a forward offensively, still. He may have to guard bigger guys, so that’s where the real challenge comes in.”

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.