New-look Runnin’ Rebels ready for first practice of 2019-20

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2019 | 2 a.m.

UNLV basketball will hold its first practice today, an occasion that marks the unofficial tip-off of the Rebels’ first campaign under head coach T.J. Otzelberger. The roster has changed dramatically since last season, and starting with the first practice Otzelberger will have 42 days of preseason to figure out what kind of team he has.

What can we hope to learn about the new-look Rebels during that time?

Can this team shoot?

UNLV played smaller and shot more 3-pointers than expected last year, but that was mostly due to injuries and circumstances as opposed to any kind of design on the part of the coaching staff. The results were mixed; the Rebels shot catch-and-shoot jumpers on 30.9 percent of their halfcourt possessions and connected on 33.7 percent from 3-point range (which ranked No. 218 in the nation).

Under Otzelberger’s command, South Dakota State was one of the country’s best shooting teams. The Jackrabbits attempted catch-and-shoot jumpers on 32.5 percent of possessions and hit 40.8 percent from 3-point range (No. 3 in the nation).

Accurate long-distance shooting is a must in Otzelberger’s system, as he wants the floor to be properly spaced at all times. Can the Rebels hit enough shots to make that plan work? The team isn’t returning anyone who shot better than 34 percent from distance last year, so it will require some serious internal improvement as well as some sharpshooting newcomers to get UNLV up to Otzelberger’s standards.

Which holdovers stand to benefit from coaching change?

Speaking of holdovers, Amauri Hardy is expected to fit into Otzelberger’s system nicely and post career-best numbers, but he was already ascending after a productive sophomore season that saw him average 13.1 points and 3.5 assists per game. Aside from him, there are three other returning players who could see their roles increase: forward Nick Blair and guards Bryce Hamilton and Marvin Coleman.

Otzelberger obviously likes Blair and Coleman, as he awarded scholarships to the former walk-ons shortly after taking the job. Coleman, a sophomore, looks like he could be the backup point guard. Blair, a senior, is primed for a bigger role as a small-ball forward if he can show more consistency from 3-point range (33.3 percent last year).

The returnee with the most upside is Hamilton, a former 4-star recruit who struggled to earn regular playing time as a true freshman. He is a gifted ball-handler and driver, and those traits should serve him well in Otzelberger’s spread system. The key in Hamilton’s development is his outside shot; he made 29.6 percent from 3 last year, which is not good enough to play starter’s minutes under Otzelberger.

If Hamilton shows better touch from beyond the arc over the next five weeks, additional driving lanes will open up and he could be in store for a sophomore leap.

Which newcomers can make an impact?

If Donnie Tillman is eligible, he immediately becomes one of the Rebels’ best players and a potential All-Mountain West contender. He can shoot it, defend multiple positions and generally excel at doing everything the Otzelberger system will ask of him.

If the NCAA denies Tillman’s waiver, the Rebels will need more from incoming transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long and Jonah Antonio.

Mitrou-Long is a grad transfer from Texas who is projected as the starting point guard, but he’ll have to shoot better and play stronger on the ball than he did last year. If he does that, he can hold the fort for a season.

Antonio could serve a more important purpose as the Rebels’ designated floor spacer. The junior hit 40.9 percent of his 3-point shots last year, which would have been the best rate among UNLV regulars in 2018-19. With Hardy, Hamilton and Mitrou-Long all untested as volume shooters, Antonio could find himself responsible for keeping defenses honest. He has to deliver on his shooting potential for the offense to operate at full capacity.

Are the Rebels ready to play defense?

While South Dakota State’s offense was always elite under Otzelberger’s direction, the defense was merely average. Opponents scored 0.902 points per possession last year, and the Jackrabbits were particularly bad at defending the pick-and-roll, allowing 0.897 PPP to ball-handlers on those plays (No. 335 in the nation).

The “good” news is that UNLV was even worse last season, allowing 0.924 PPP overall, so there’s nowhere to go but up. And if Tillman is declared eligible, the Rebels should have a couple of plus defenders to build around in him and junior center Mbacke Diong.

Last year’s MWC regular season co-winners — UNR and Utah State — allowed 0.837 PPP and 0.847 PPP, respectively. That ranked them No. 29 and No. 47 nationally, while UNLV was No. 266. To contend for a league title eventually, Otzelberger will have to get the Rebels’ defense to play at that level. Preseason will let us know if he has a roster capable of closing the gap at all.

How does the roster stack up against the rest of the Mountain West?

Utah State enters the preseason as the clear-cut favorite, with two Mountain West Player of the Year contenders and a good, experienced supporting cast. UNLV can’t compete with that on paper. The second tier includes teams like UNR, San Diego State and Boise State, which have talented rosters but question marks either in terms of experience, skill sets or coaching changes. UNLV probably enters the season a tick below those teams as well.

But beyond that, the Rebels are in the mix at the top of the third tier along with New Mexico, Fresno State and Air Force. Hardy and Tillman figure to be excellent Mountain West players, and if Hamilton joins them it would propel the Rebels into the second tier. Adding one more difference-maker to that core would make them contenders to win the league.

Look for UNLV to place somewhere around 6th or 7th when the preseason poll is announced.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.