How divisional realignment would affect Golden Knights in shortened NHL season

By Justin Emerson

Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020 | 2 a.m.

After months of delays because of the COVID-19 pandemic, there appears to be real movement toward a new NHL season beginning.

Multiple reports on Friday indicate the NHL and the players association have been working toward the possibility of a mid-January start with a 56-game season — 26 games fewer than a normal season, which would have started in early October. Training camps would begin in early January, with the playoffs ending in early July.

It’s going to be a unique NHL season for many reasons because of the pandemic, including the emergence of an all-Canada division, where the seven teams based north of the border realign to one division to avoid traveling to the United States. The current and strict border policies between the two countries necessitates such a move.

That leaves the 24 American teams needing to realign as well, as three of the four divisions contained a Canadian team, including three in the Pacific Division with the Golden Knights. It creates an intriguing trickle-down effect, as those three teams may have been Vegas’ biggest threats to a division crown.

But with that comes an arguably larger threat to Vegas’ third Pacific Division title in four years.

We’ll start with the Pacific exodus, a division that the Golden Knights won last year by three points ahead of the Oilers, seven over the Flames (with one more game played than Calgary) and eight over the Canucks (with two extra games played). The closest American team was the Coyotes, which finished 12 points back of Vegas and lost star forward Taylor Hall this offseason, presumably making them less of a threat.

Anaheim, San Jose and Los Angeles finished with the three worst records in the Western Conference.

If Vegas played a 56-game schedule in a division with just Arizona and the California teams, sports books might not bother putting up odds the Golden Knights would win it. But it wouldn’t be a five-team division. Realignment will put some teams from the much-more-competitive Central into the Golden Knights’ division.

ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski reports those teams could be the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild. That is yet to be confirmed, but they are geographically the closest and make the most sense.

Those three, though, pose a challenge. They represent the Golden Knights’ biggest competitor in the Western Conference on paper (Colorado), the team that eliminated them in the playoffs last year (Dallas), and the only team all-time against which Vegas has not averaged even two goals against (Minnesota).

A 56-game season would mean not just divisional realignment, but also a scheduling change. In a normal 82-game year, Vegas would play its division rivals four times each, the Central teams three times and the Eastern Conference teams twice. As the league looks to limit travel both to suppress virus transmission and save on costs, it’s possible teams have an extra helping of the teams in their division.

The thought of facing conference powerhouses Colorado and Dallas multiple times in a shortened season can’t please the Golden Knights. Those two and Vegas made up the second, third and fourth best teams in the Western Conference during last regular season, all three reached the conference semifinals and Dallas came within two victories of the Stanley Cup.

Even the Wild, who have not won a playoff round in five years, are 4-1-1 in six meetings with Vegas. By points percentage and goals scored per game, the Golden Knights have performed worse against the Wild in the regular season than they have any other team.

The Avalanche, Stars and Wild all finished ahead of Arizona, Anaheim, San Jose and Los Angeles as every Central team made the postseason. Imagine how much better their record would be if they got to feast on the Pacific Division’s weakest teams.

The Golden Knights had no trouble winning the division in their first year, and won it with a few points to spare last year. Were it not for realignment, the Golden Knights would be heavily favored to win the Pacific again this year.

So if you’re Vegas, would you rather play Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary; or Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota? The former trio is no slouch, but the latter is a trifecta that the Golden Knights would much rather wait until a potential Western Conference Final to face.