Analysis: Injuries not to blame for the Raiders’ recent fall from grace

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2020 | 2 a.m.

The best defensive effort the Raiders have shown over the past month might have come in Jon Gruden’s most recent news conference.

Asked if he had diagnosed any common links between his team’s late-season slumps in each of the last two years, the third-year coach rebuffed the question like a defensive back swatting a pass away. With two games to go in what’s now all but certain to be the Raiders’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth, Gruden is not ready to analyze any big-picture problems that could be holding back the franchise.

He’s only looking for answers to help in Saturday’s home game against the Dolphins and the Week 17 finale at Denver in the wake of the Raiders’ fourth loss in five games, a 30-27 overtime defeat to the Chargers. And, to Gruden, most of those answers are found in one place.

“I just named about 10 players that were missing,” Gruden said. “I think that has a little something to do with it. I’m not going to ever use excuses, but I’ve never been in a game where we lose so many players and you had so many players missing going into it. We were beat up big-time last year and we just haven’t been able to stay healthy down the stretch.”

Gruden’s frustration is totally understandable. Las Vegas was more beaten-up than it’s been all season against Los Angeles, and having seven starters out by the end of the game certainly played a role in the loss.

But some form of “getting our guys healthy” or “missing some players” has been Gruden’s go-to excuse when asked about anything that’s gone wrong this season even as he pledges not to make any excuses. But it’s a company line that doesn’t really check out.

Here’s the thing — the Raiders haven’t been that ill-affected by injuries this season. Not any more than the average NFL team at least.

Man Games Lost, an injury tracking service used by several teams, actually rated the Raiders slightly below-average in games lost through Week 14 of the season. The significance of the players who missed time was even less impactful.

Starting quarterback Derek Carr hadn’t missed any time until pulling his groin early in the Chargers’ game. He's "50/50" to play against the Dolphins, according to Gruden.

The Raiders’ top weapon, tight end Darren Waller, has been healthy all year and their other go-to, running back Josh Jacobs, has missed only one game.

They’ve dealt with ever-difficult cluster injuries along the offensive line and defensive backfield but the players at arguably the two most important positions in each unit have stayed mostly intact. Center Rodney Hudson has played every game as has top cornerback Trayvon Mullen, though he did leave early with an injury in the first meeting with the Chargers.

That leaves right tackle Trent Brown (11 games missed with multiple issues including coronavirus), defensive end Clelin Ferrell (three games missed with coronavirus and a shoulder injury) and linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski (two games with a pectoral injury) as the absences that have hurt the most.

Meaningful? Absolutely. Devastating? Nowhere close.

The list is not all that different from last season where the Raiders ranked 26th in the league in adjusted games lost by Football Outsiders, a metric that calculates the effect of injuries on every team. This year’s numbers won’t be released until after the season, but Las Vegas is highly unlikely to be near the top.

Perhaps the preponderance of injuries is something new to Gruden. Injury rates in the NFL went up drastically from the time of his first head-coaching stint, which lasted from 1998 to 2008, to his return in 2018.

The league and the players’ association were proactive after league-wide injuries peaked in 2017 and they’ve trended downwards the last two seasons according to the NFL's own studies. Some expect the overall data, which will be tabulated in the offseason, to go back up this year after the lack of preseason and preparation time during a global pandemic.

A few franchises have been ravished by injuries including the San Francisco 49ers, which have 31 players currently injured according to Pro Football Reference, and the Philadelphia Eagles, which sit at 25.

Again, in yet another metric, the Raiders’ 18 current injuries are not insignificant but also not enough to be cited as the primary factor in a season that’s fallen apart.

“We’re building our squad, and unfortunately, some of our first- and second-year players, guys that were counting on, haven’t been available a lot,” Gruden said. “We’re going to continue to fight, continue to develop and continue to work hard and try to get our eighth victory and see if somehow we can get a winning season, which would be a great accomplishment.”

Going from 7-9 a year ago to 9-7 this year would be an indisputable sign of progress, albeit a bittersweet one with if it doesn't accompany a postseason berth.

The Raiders are no longer in a rebuild, though. Three seasons, the current length of Gruden’s tenure, is almost a generation in NFL terms considering that’s about how long the average player’s career lasts.

There’s been enough time for Gruden and General Manager Mike Mayock, who’s in his second season, to put together a roster to endure an expected level of attrition that occurs throughout a 16-game season. Despite claims to the contrary, that’s what the Raiders have experienced this season — an expected level of attrition.

Maybe depth is something Gruden and Mayock need to look at in the offseason as part of their goal to build a real contender. There are many priorities looming for the Raiders including a needed overhaul of what’s been one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

But to address them properly, they’ll need to accept that injuries weren’t the culprit in derailing their season.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.