If not Carr, then who? Evaluating Las Vegas Raiders’ QB options for 2020

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2020 | 2 a.m.

In his second season in Jon Gruden's offense, quarterback Derek Carr distributed the ball accurately (70.4 percent), limited his turnovers (eight interceptions) and piloted one of the league's most efficient attacks (No. 9 in offensive DVOA). And yet it felt as if there was something missing at the most important position on the field, and after the Raiders wrapped up a 7-9 campaign, Gruden didn't sound all that enthusiastic about committing to Carr as the franchise's long-term quarterback.

If the Raiders do want to move on from Carr and head in a new direction as they move to Las Vegas in 2020, what are the realistic options? There will be a lot of brand names on the market this offseason, but the fit is not as obvious at it may seem at first glance. Carr has a cap hit of $21.5 million in 2020, and even if the Raiders were to move on, he'd still count $5 million against the cap in dead money, so there are a few different avenues to explore.

Las Vegas can bring in an immediate starter and jettison Carr, as they have the cap space (projected $75 million, according to OverTheCap.com) to absorb the $5 million hit, or the Raiders could bring in a backup-type with upside at a lower price and let him try to beat out Carr for the job. (There's also the option of drafting a young passer and building for the future, but for now let's focus on the free-agent and trade markets.)

Let's take a look at 10 quarterbacks who could be available to the Raiders this offseason:

(*Age listed for 2020 season)

FREE AGENT MARKET

Ryan Tannehill

Age: 32

2019 stats: 70.3 percent, 2,742 yards, 9.6 Y/A, 22 TDs, 6 INTs

Situation: Tannehill was unwanted in the offseason and Tennessee was able to snag him in a trade for late-round draft compensation. Now he's the hottest QB on the market, as he stepped in for Marcus Mariota midway through the season and put up elite numbers while leading the Titans to the playoffs. He's not a backup anymore — if the Raiders make a move for Tannehill, it would be an all-in type maneuver to straight-up replace Carr.

How much: Tennessee will probably work out a long-term deal with Tannehill this offseason; in lieu of that, the team will apply the franchise tag. Either way, it's highly unlikely he's available.

Outlook: The time to buy low on Tannehill was last offseason. The Raiders won't get a chance at him now, but they might have a chance to buy low on a candidate to be the "next" Tannehill ...

Marcus Mariota

Age: 27

2019 stats: 59.4 percent, 1,203 yards, 7.5 Y/A, 7 TDs, 2 INTs

Situation: Mariota was the No. 2 overall pick in 2015 but has never lived up to his talent, which is why he lost his job this season and will be allowed to hit unrestricted free agency. His pocket presence is among the worst in the league (sack rate of 13.5 percent this year) so he needs a strong offensive line in front of him, which the Raiders can offer. It's possible to envision Las Vegas bringing him in as a veteran backup with upside — the way Tennessee brought in Ryan Tannehill behind Mariota this season.

How much: It's hard to see a bidding war developing around Mariota. Tannehill signed a 1-year, $7 million contract with Tennessee before the season; Mariota could probably be had on similar terms this offseason, unless there's some coach out there who simply fell in love with him during the pre-draft process years ago.

Outlook: Mariota would probably be the cheapest way to add "upside" to the quarterback position, depending on whether Gruden believes there is any potential left to unlock. On the surface, this scenario seems like a distinct possibility.

Jameis Winston

Age: 26

2019 stats: 60.7 percent, 5,109 yards, 8.2 Y/A, 33 TDs, 30 INTs

Situation: Winston has been a disappointment since being selected No. 1 overall in 2015, both on and off the field. He's talented, as evidenced by his 5,000 passing yards and 33 touchdowns this season, but he also threw 30 picks. And fumbled 12 times. And took 47 sacks. He's a negative-play machine, but he might be the kind of high-upside player that Gruden feels he can mold into a stable quarterback.

How much: After playing out his five-year rookie contract, Winston is set to become an unrestricted free agent unless Tampa Bay works out a long-term deal or uses the franchise tag on him. If he hits the market though, it would probably take upwards $25 million per year to sign him.

Outlook: With his high ceiling, it's probable the Buccaneers will tag him and give him one more year to see if he reaches his potential.

Teddy Bridgewater

Age: 28

2019 stats: 67.9 percent, 1,384 yards, 7.1 Y/A, 9 TDs, 2 INTs

Situation: Bridgewater never really impressed early in his career with Minnesota, and a devastating knee injury nearly ended his career. But he has rebounded nicely with the Saints, providing a steady backup presence over the last two years. This season, he stepped in for Drew Brees and played more than adequately, though it remains to be seen if the soft-tosser is capable of producing at a starting level.

How much: When Andrew Luck retired and the Colts elevated backup Jacoby Brissett to the starting job, they signed him to a 1-year extension that basically made his current deal a 2-year contract worth $30 million. That seems like a good comp for Bridgewater.

Outlook: It probably doesn't make sense for the Raiders to pay that kind of money to a QB who they're not sure is better than Carr.

Philip Rivers

Age: 39

2019 stats: 66.0 percent, 4,615 yards, 7.8 Y/A, 23 TDs, 20 INTs

Situation: Rivers threw a ton of interceptions this season, but other than that he was still a productive passer. His age makes him a candidate to be replaced, however, and the Chargers could use the No. 6 overall pick to draft a young franchise QB. Retirement is also a consideration; if Rivers wants to keep playing, he'll be an unrestricted free agent.

How much: After making $23 million in 2019, Rivers could probably command something around $20 million on a short-term deal from a QB-needy squad. And as a potential one-season stopgap, Rivers could present good value for a team like the Chicago Bears or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Outlook: For fans who tired of Carr's cautious approach, Rivers represents the extreme opposite. He'll sling it downfield and go for the big play every time, but it's hard to see the Raiders committing so much of their salary-cap space to a player nearing the end of the line.

Eli Manning

Age: 39

2019 stats: 61.9 percent, 1,042 yards, 7.1 Y/A, 6 TDs, 5 INTs

Situation: While Rivers still looks somewhat lively at age 39 (if mistake-prone), Manning appears to be completely washed up. He lost his No. 1 spot to Daniel Jones early in the 2019 season, and his numbers haven't been good in years. Still, he doesn't seem keen on retirement and is reportedly hoping to find a starting job somewhere in the league next year.

How much: Manning made $28.2 million this season, but he'll be lucky to make a fraction of that now that he's an unrestricted free agent. It's hard to see any team commit to him for more than a year, if that.

Outlook: Carr is a much better player at this point, so unless Gruden has a particular fondness for Manning there's no reason for Las Vegas to get involved here.

TRADE MARKET

Alex Smith

Age: 35

2019 stats: Did not play

Situation: Smith broke his leg late in the 2018 season and Washington responded by drafting a long-term quarterback in the first round, so Smith is very much available via trade. As a veteran passer with experience working in a horizontal, spread offense, there are Rich Gannon comparisons to be made.

How much: Smith is owed $16 million guaranteed for 2020, with a cap hit of $21.4 million, so it shouldn't take much trade compensation in order to get him out of Washington. A fifth-rounder sounds about right.

Outlook: It's easy to envision Smith fitting into a Gruden-style offense, but his hefty contract means he would come in as a Carr replacement.

Andy Dalton

Age: 33

2019 stats: 59.5, 3,494 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 16 TDs, 14 INTs

Situation: The Bengals offense was terrible in 2019, and while Dalton wasn't the sole problem, he clearly wasn't the solution, either. He is what he has always been — an OK-ish passer who is as good (or as bad) as his surrounding talent.

How much: Dalton has one year and $17.5 million left on his deal, but Cincinnati can cut him without any dead money, so there's no chance he's back with the Bengals next year. Some team might want to offer up a late pick in order to gain sole negotiating rights with him, but it's more likely everyone holds off and waits for him to be cut.

Outlook: The knock on Dalton — only as good as his weapons — is kind of the same knock on Carr, so swapping out one for the other wouldn't seem to be worth the trouble. Carr has more upside.

Cam Newton

Age: 31

2019 stats: 56.2 percent, 572 yards, 5.9 Y/A, 0 TDs, 1 INTs

Situation: Newton is one of the most physically impressive talents in the league — when healthy. He hasn't been right for a couple years now, however, so any team with him at the helm would be taking a big risk. For now, reports are that the Panthers are content to stick with Newton and trust he'll regain the form from his younger days.

How much: Newton's current deal isn't particularly onerous, as he's got one year left at $19.1 million, with a cap hit of $21.1 million. That means a team like Las Vegas would probably have to give up something of value in order to acquire him; a second-round pick might be enough to make the Panthers listen, but he's worth more to Carolina than to another team.

Outlook: As a quarterback who derives so much of his value from his ability to run, Newton represents a huge question mark for any team. Carr is a much, much safer bet to play 16 games next season.

Nick Foles

Age: 31

2019 stats: 65.8 percent, 736 yards, 6.3 Y/A, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Situation: The NFL's most accomplished backup quarterback only started two games this season before returning to his natural spot on the depth chart. The Jaguars will definitely shop him to the highest bidder this offseason.

How much: Foles only has one year of guaranteed money left on his current contract, and an acquiring team would be on the hook for $15.1 million guaranteed in 2020. That's not awful, especially for a team with a ton of cap space, but it's not negligible, either.

Outlook: Foles would be a nice option as a backup to Carr, but his contract probably makes that unworkable. If he comes to Las Vegas it would be as the starter, with Carr shipped out to another team. Carr is better, so that tradeoff hardly seems worth it.

GOAT MARKET

Tom Brady

Age: 43

2019 stats: 60.8 percent, 4,057 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 24 TDs, 8 INTs

Situation: Brady is the best football player of all time, so he'd never be available — or would he? There has been speculation for several years that the Patriots want to move on and get younger at quarterback, and Brady doesn't want to stop playing, so he may be open to joining a new team now that his contract is up. Gruden has probably dreamed of coaching Brady and would undoubtedly jump at the chance to court the G.O.A.T., even in his twilight years.

How much: Brady made $21.5 million in 2019, and though he has a reputation for taking less money, that was a discount afforded to New England because the Patriots could offer him continuous championship contention. The Raiders would likely have to pay the full retail price — definitely more than $21.5 million — but they have the cap to do it.

Outlook: It's just impossible to believe Brady will ever take a snap in another uniform. If he truly becomes available though, he would obviously represent a massive upgrade over Carr. If Brady thinks he can play three more years, the Raiders could offer him a strong offensive line and better skill weapons than New England. Las Vegas should be prepared to jump at the opportunity to offer something like three years and $90 million.

Bottom line: Though there are a lot of high-profile names on the market, there aren't a lot of quarterbacks who would be slam-dunk immediate upgrades. You can maybe talk yourself into Alex Smith or Philip Rivers, but neither of them are guaranteed to outperform Carr, and they both come with their own questions (health and age, respectively). Brady is a no-brainer, but would New England really let him walk? And would Las Vegas be his preferred choice considering the team's lack of championship pedigree?

The most intriguing (and most possible) scenario might be Mariota, but only if he strikes out in his attempt to find a starting job elsewhere. If he could be brought in as a backup with a backup-level salary commitment, the Raiders could evaluate Carr for another six or eight games in 2020; if the results aren't there, they could give Mariota a shot in hopes that he undergoes a Tannehill-like transformation in a new offense.

That's a lot of "if's," though. The likeliest outcome, by far, is that when the Raiders take their first snaps at Allegiant Stadium in 2020, Derek Carr will be Las Vegas' quarterback.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.