Unpredictability, question marks make McGregor’s return to octagon difficult to handicap

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020 | 2 a.m.

The only punch fans have seen Conor McGregor throw over the past 14 months was a cheap shot against an elderly man in a Dublin pub. In August, TMZ released video of the assault, for which the 31-year-old UFC superstar eventually pleaded guilty.

During McGregor’s extended hiatus from the octagon, the former two-division champion’s fights have been confined to courtrooms (he was also arrested in March for stealing and smashing a Miami man’s cellphone). More than three years have passed since McGregor’s last win, a dry spell he’ll look to end during the main event at UFC 246 against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, on January 18 at T-Mobile Arena.

It’s another mega-bout in a career full of mega-bouts for the Irishman, who has spent the past half-decade as the most popular fighter in the world. It’s been widely reported that McGregor has headlined five of the six best-selling UFC pay-per-view cards of all time, though the locally based promotion doesn’t publicly disclose sales numbers.

The long-brewing showdown with Cerrone, a draw in his own right, will likely join that group, but it feels quite different from its predecessors. Never has there been so much uncertainty surrounding a fight this big, even in a sport as renowned for volatility as mixed martial arts.

No one knows what to expect from McGregor, who was thoroughly outclassed in a fourth-round submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in his last fight in October 2018. That followed an equally lopsided defeat to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in an August 2017 boxing match, for which McGregor reportedly earned close to $100 million.

Considering that McGregor has already secured more wealth and fame than any other MMA fighter, along with his place in combat-sports history, it’s natural to wonder if he can regain the drive that powered his initial run. McGregor captured the UFC featherweight title less than three years after joining the promotion, winning seven straight fights, with all but one coming by knockout inside of two rounds.

And McGregor won’t be the only variable at UFC 246. Judging from their careers as a whole, Cerrone has been far more erratic. The 36-year-old ranks as the UFC’s all-time leader in wins with 23, but that’s largely because of the volume he has continually sought. When he faces McGregor, Cerrone will move into sole possession of first place for most overall UFC fights with 34.

Cerrone’s performances have been wide-ranging. He’s had a plethora of highlight-reel finishes but also a handful of baffling no-shows. By his own admission, when he was younger Cerrone struggled mentally in the most important moments.

Dating back to his run in the WEC, a major promotion later absorbed by the UFC, Cerrone is 0-4 in title fights. Though no belt will be on the line at UFC 246, he’ll fight McGregor under a brighter spotlight than during his four championship bouts combined.

The stakes for McGregor vs. Cerrone are also murky. UFC President Dana White has said that if McGregor wins, he’d like to book him for a rematch with Nurmagomedov for the lightweight championship. That doesn’t make much sense, however, considering McGregor vs. Cerrone is being contested at welterweight. Nurmagomedov also seems uninterested, explaining that he needed to win at least nine straight fights before getting the nod to face McGregor and demanding that McGregor do the same before a rematch.

There’s been virtually no discussion about what a victory might mean for Cerrone, who enters the bout on a two-fight losing streak. Perhaps no such clarity is needed, since Cerrone has long cited money as his primary motivator.

Win or lose, Cerrone will make a whole lot of it on what will surely be the largest payday of his career to date. Even with so many unknowns heading into UFC 246, there’s nothing in combat sports as big as a Conor McGregor fight right now.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.