5 things to watch for the rest of the Golden Knights season

By Justin Emerson

Friday, Jan. 31, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Hard as it is to believe, the hockey season is mostly over. The All-Star break is thought of as the halfway point, but 52 games into the season, the Golden Knights have just 30 games before the end of the regular season.

A lot that can happen in those 30 games. Here are five things to watch as the Golden Knights begin the “second half” at 4:30 p.m. at the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Golden Knights are going to make the playoffs … right?

That answer is a little blurrier than it was a few weeks ago. The Golden Knights are holding the second wild card playoff spot while in fifth place in the Pacific Division. Four teams are within five points of the wild card.

Clinging to a wild card position is not where the Golden Knights feel they should be. Coming into the year they were considered one of the favorites in the Pacific, and once the Sharks’ season spiraled the way it did, it seemed like it was Vegas’ division to lose. Instead, the Golden Knights trail the three Canadian teams in the division, and two of them have games in hand. Vegas is five points back of Vancouver.

Five points in 30 games may not seem like a lot. If the Golden Knights win their next three games and Vancouver loses its next three in regulation, there you go. But keep in mind the Golden Knights have only three winning streaks of three-plus games, and the Canucks have only lost three in a row twice. 

The Athletic gives Vegas just an 11% chance of winning the division, and a 50% chance of finishing fourth or fifth. That translates to a 61% chance of making the playoffs.

Will special teams improve?

The Golden Knights were a middle-of-the-road team on the power play and penalty kill under Gerard Gallant. One place where the new coaching staff of former San Jose Sharks, headed by Peter DeBoer and assisted by Steve Spott, can make an impact is with special teams.

Spott was brought in partly to run the power play. Despite the Sharks’ power play clicking at just 16% when DeBoer and Spott were dismissed (ninth-worst in the NHL), the overall body of work has been strong. Since DeBoer and Spott joined the Sharks in 2015, the Sharks had a top-six power play in the league in three of their five full seasons, including a 23.6% mark that was sixth-best in the NHL last season.

The San Jose penalty kill, meanwhile, had a league-best 88.3% success rate at the time of the coaches’ dismissals. The penalty kill is a place to watch, as Vegas had the No. 19-ranked unit at the time DeBoer was hired. The Golden Knights killed off nine of the 10 penalties in three games before the break.

Will the lineup look different?

DeBoer was hired with three games left before a 10-day layoff, so a drastic change to the lineup was unlikely. During the break, he had time to work with his assistants to formulate the best lineup.

William Karlsson missed the last three games before the break, but when healthy, frequently played on the same line as Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith. Could splitting up the trinity provide a spark lower in the lineup? Smith in particular has been tremendous this year and could boost whatever line he is playing on.

The other option would be separating Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, who have been the best forward duo on the team. It’s for a similar reason: They’re great together, but they could drive play on their own, too.

What about putting Pacioretty on the opposite wing of Alex Tuch, who has struggled this season. Maybe Stone gets together with Marchessault, as the two of them played together for Team Canada at the World Championships.

On defense, watch how Shea Theodore lines up. He’s been terrific with Nick Holden in an 11-game sample, but cracks started to show in their last game against Boston. Theodore is morphing into a bona fide star and could boost the play of whomever he is paired with. What about Nate Schmidt, who is having a down season after two strong ones in Vegas? Perhaps Brayden McNabb, with whom Theodore played for the second half of last season?

Will Vegas pull off another blockbuster at the trade deadline?

The Golden Knights have $3.4 million in projected deadline cap space, according to CapFriendly, but even that is probably on the high side. Vegas has only 21 players on its roster, and calling up Nicolas Hague and Nicolas Roy will drop the projection, perhaps even under a million.

Still, the Golden Knights have swung two major moves over the past two trade deadlines, acquiring Tomas Tatar from Detroit in 2018 and Mark Stone from Ottawa last year. The cap space will hinder Vegas this year but won’t make it impossible.

The Golden Knights have several expiring contracts on their books, including the $3.85 million cap hit from Cody Eakin and the $2.775 million from Ryan Reaves.

While neither player would net a large bounty in a trade, unloading either would free space for Vegas to turn around and acquire a player. 

The Golden Knights have a need for a top-four defenseman, preferably a right-handed one, and would love to add a puck-mover to their back end. The team’s front office has been aggressive in the past, so don’t expect total silence from Vegas ahead of the Feb. 24 deadline.

How will the goaltending hold up?

In Marc-Andre Fleury’s first 10 games, he had a .937 save percentage, but in the 26 since, he has an .894 save percentage. In Malcolm Subban’s first 10 games he had a .909 save percentage, and in the six since, he has an .879 save percentage. 

Fleury was perhaps the best goalie in the league for the season’s first month, and when his numbers started to regress when he was on a leave of absence, Subban shouldered the load and carried the team. Now neither is playing well.

Maybe DeBoer’s tweaks will make life easier on the men in the net. Maybe the penalty kill, where the goalies have struggled mightily lately, will improve to help give them easier saves.

Most likely though it will take Fleury and Subban, who have combined for two games with a save percentage over .900 in the 2020 calendar year, to re-find their game. But Fleury turned 35 years old two months ago, and Subban has been a backup his entire career. If Fleury is indeed in a decline in his career and Subban doesn’t improve, the Golden Knights are in trouble, both this season and beyond.

Justin Emerson can be reached at 702-259-8814 or [email protected]. Follow Justin on Twitter at twitter.com/@j15emerson.