Rebels’ path to victory: How UNLV can win the Mountain West tournament

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Thursday, March 5, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Is UNLV a decided underdog to win this week’s Mountain West tournament? Yes. And is there an all-powerful juggernaut standing in the way? Most certainly. But that doesn’t mean the mission is hopeless.

In fact, there was once another rag-tag band of Rebels who had no choice but to take on an unbeatable Empire, and the underdogs came out on top in that battle. It was called “Star Wars,” and that tale should give UNLV some confidence heading into a tournament in which the odds of winning are the same as successfully navigating an asteroid field (approximately 3,721 to one).

Can the Runnin’ Rebels find a path to victory? Winning three games in three days won’t be easy, but neither was blowing up the Death Star. Luke Skywalker’s crew accomplished that by being tough and cagey and taking advantage of their opponent’s lone weakness: a vulnerable exhaust port that could be destroyed by a single proton torpedo.

Like that moon-sized warship, every one of UNLV’s potential Mountain West opponents has a weakness — some fatal flaw, no matter how tiny, that can be exploited. T.J. Otzelberger’s crew just has to be prepared to seize their opportunity when it comes.

Let’s take a look at the round-by-round blueprint for each potential opponent as the Rebels get set to tip off today:

QUARTERFINALS

Boise State

Record: 19-11 (11-7 MWC) / KenPom No. 85

What’s so great about them?: Boise State is one of the best shooting teams in the Mountain West, led by senior guard Justinian Jessup (44.1 3FG% in conference play).

Death Star: Derrick Alston. The high-scoring junior forward is capable of drawing a lot of fouls, and UNLV loves to hack on defense. In Boise’s win over UNLV on Jan. 8, Alston lived at the free-throw line (10-of-12) and scored a game-high 26 points.

Exhaust port: Spread defense. In the most recent meeting between the teams, UNLV ripped Boise to shreds by playing four- and five-guard lineups. BSU looked unprepared and unable to keep up with the Rebels’ ball movement, allowing a ton of easy layups. It’s doubtful the Broncos were able to completely fix that issue in one week.

UNLV’s proton torpedo: Bryce Hamilton off the dribble. When UNLV goes small, Boise doesn’t have a defender capable of containing Hamilton 1-on-1. In the last meeting, he scored 22 points on 7-of-12 shooting and earned 10 free-throw attempts. If Elijah Mitrou-Long can give UNLV any kind of presence in small lineups, it will allow Hamilton to feast.

SEMIFINALS

San Diego State

Record: 28-1 (17-1 MWC) / KenPom No. 4

What’s so great about them? SDSU plays defense at a national-championship level. Driving lanes are hard to come by and almost every shot is contested. Opponents averaged just 59.2 points per game.

Death Star: Stops on command. When San Diego State really digs in on defense, it's nearly impossible for UNLV to get a good shot. That was on full display in the Rebels' 66-63 win two weeks ago, when UNLV built a double-digit lead and then had to hold on for dear life as SDSU put on the clamps and held them to one field goal over the final 10 minutes. If the Aztecs need to, they can send UNLV into an epic offensive drought.

Exhaust port: Reliance on tough shots. Unlike most other top teams, San Diego State doesn’t generate a lot of easy baskets on offense. When the game is in the balance, the Aztecs count on guard Malachi Flynn (the MWC Player of the Year) to hit difficult shots off the dribble.

UNLV’s proton torpedo: Five-guard lineups. When the Rebels play 6-foot-5 Jay Green at center, it allows them to switch every screen. That gives Flynn even less room to operate and gunks up the SDSU offense, like when Green forced Flynn to commit a turnover on a crucial possession in UNLV’s win in San Diego.

Air Force

Record: 12-19 (6-13 MWC) / KenPom No. 204

What’s so great about them? “Great” would be a strong word, as there’s little chance the Falcons upset San Diego State to reach the semifinals. But it’s a veteran squad that won’t be intimidated by anyone.

Death Star: Long-range shooting. AFA has four players who shoot better than 37 percent from 3-point range; for comparison, UNLV’s leader shot 34.5 percent.

Exhaust port: Interior defense. Opponents shoot a ridiculous 66.5 percent around the rim against Air Force, which ranks 338^th in the nation. UNLV isn’t a great finishing team, but they are good enough to make AFA pay for having zero rim protection.

UNLV’s proton torpedo: Amauri Hardy. The junior guard is much more effective when the lane is not congested; he’d be able to drive to the rim and finish with regularity against Air Force.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Utah State

Record: 23-8 (12-6 MWC) / KenPom No. 42

What’s so great about them? The Aggies are an elite defensive team led by two All-MWC players in guard Sam Merrill and center Neemias Queta. When they were both healthy for the second meeting with UNLV, they led Utah State to an easy 69-54 win.

Death Star: Queta. The near-7-footer is the league’s Defensive Player of the Year for a reason. Even when the Rebels go small, Queta is quick enough to step out of the paint and still recover to block and alter shots around the rim. He’s a nightmare matchup for the Rebels.

Exhaust port: Outside shooting. Aside from Merrill, who is a deadly sniper, the Aggies don’t have a lot of shooting and it has hampered their offense all season.

UNLV's proton torpedo: Vitaliy Shibel. If the stretch-5 can pull Queta away from the lane just a bit while also knocking in a 3-pointer or two, UNLV has a chance.

UNR

Record: 19-11 (12-6 MWC) / KenPom No. 78

What’s so great about them? The Wolf Pack may have changed coaches, but the style of play is familiar, as this team still spreads the floor and shoots it well from every position. Junior guard Jalen Harris averaged 25.4 points per game in conference play, but he’s not the only threat.

Death Star: 3-point barrage. UNR averages more than 10 3-pointers per game against Mountain West opponents, and if they get hot UNLV probably doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

Exhaust port: Fast-break defense. UNR ranks 294^th in points per possession in transition, and if the Rebels take care of the defensive glass they should be able to live off quick baskets.

UNLV's proton torpedo: Open-court magic. Marvin Coleman has proven to be UNLV’s best transition player (1.182 points per possession), as he gets the ball up-court quickly and makes good decisions when the Rebels have numbers. Get him ahead of the UNR defense and he’ll pick them apart.

New Mexico

Record: 19-13 (8-11 MWC) / KenPom No. 135

What’s so great about them? Maybe there’s something to be said for surviving adversity. New Mexico has been through a gauntlet of on- and off-court tribulations this season, but they managed to pull it together and beat Utah State in the regular-season finale. Then the Lobos knocked off San Jose State in the play-in round, so maybe there’s some momentum at play?

Death Star: Talent. Senior guard JaQuan Lyle has had a disappointing year, but he’s still a crazy-talented 6-foot-5 backcourt scorer who could conceivably get hot and pour in 25 points one of these days. Junior forward Vance Jackson has the ability to dominate but drifts through most games. Get both of them cooking for 40 minutes together and UNM is better than its record.

Exhaust port: Team defense. Some of the Lobos’ halfcourt possessions were so bad in the last game against UNLV that it looked like the players had never spent a second practicing defense or even met before. UNM defenders are constantly out of position and slow to react; UNLV can get a good shot every single time down the floor.

UNLV's proton torpedo: Discipline. New Mexico is a hilariously disorganized team, so if the Lobos somehow managed to emerge from their side of the bracket to get to the title game, UNLV would simply have to play disciplined, detail-oriented basketball in order to grind UNM into dust.

Wyoming

Record: 8-23 (3-16 MWC) / KenPom No. 273

What’s so great about them? Literally nothing. The Cowboys were the worst team in the Mountain West this season, but their play-in upset of Colorado State means they have to be taken somewhat seriously.

Death Star: Confidence. Wyoming took UNLV to overtime in the teams’ only meeting this season, so if this unlikely title-game matchup actually happened, the Cowboys would be riding a wave of momentum and secure in the knowledge that they can compete with UNLV.

Exhaust port: The scoreboard. Wyoming is one of the nation’s worst offensive teams (No. 337 in KenPom’s adjusted offense), so as long as the Rebels give an honest effort on D there should be no way Wyoming gets to 70 points — and maybe not even 60.

UNLV's proton torpedo: Coaching. If UNLV were to make it to the championship game and all that stood between the Rebels and the NCAA Tournament was a game against Wyoming, there is no conceivable universe in which T.J. Otzelberger allows his team to lose.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.