Sue Ogrocki / AP
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts celebrates after a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning in Game 6 of the baseball World Series Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020, in Arlington, Texas.
Thursday, April 7, 2022 | 2 a.m.
Betting baseball games every day can quickly turn into a grind, but building portfolios out of the sport’s many future markets throughout the season is a blast.
Sportsbooks update odds on everything from World Series and division winners to player awards and statistical leaders on a near-daily basis during the 162-game season. Jumping in at the right time in hopes of a large payout after months of rooting interest can feel more rewarding than dealing with the day-to-day swings of variance in single games.
So here’s a starter pack—six futures bets that should hold value going into the season with some strategy mixed in on how to manage the markets going forward.
Los Angeles Dodgers to win World Series +550 (i.e. risking $100 to win $550) (Circa)
From a purely player-personnel standpoint, the Dodgers are vastly superior to every team in baseball. And the gap is bigger than their futures prices are implying.
This line implies LA has about a 15% chance to win its second World Series in three years, which seems awfully short for a team whose lineup will start with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy and Justin Turner.
The +550 price is sure to go down—it’s already as low as +325 elsewhere in town—so lock it in now, and pick off long-shot prices throughout the year to complement this initial investment. It’s a proven strategy that has worked to perfection the past few years if executed correctly.
Last year’s eventual-champion Atlanta Braves got as high as 60-to-1 to win the World Series during a midseason slump, while the 2019 Washington Nationals reached 100-to-1 during an early-season slide. The Dodgers won the 2020 World Series without ever getting higher than 6-to-1.
Philadelphia Phillies to win National League East at 5-to-1 (Wynn)
Projection systems like Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and FanGraphs’ ZiPs are long-standing and trusted, but last season, a newer forecast model outperformed all the others, according to Rotogrinder’s tracking data.
Derek Carty’s the Bat X projections were the industry gold standard, so it’s worth noting how high those projections are on the Phillies this season. The Bat X rates the Phillies as the second-best team in baseball, albeit eight wins behind the Dodgers and only one ahead of the divisional rival Braves.
It’s easy to see why, considering the high-upside nature of Philadelphia’s pitching staff and its embarrassment of batting riches after adding Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber in free agency. Defense is where the Phillies are lacking, but they will reportedly attempt to work around that by aggressively employing shifts and positioning their outfielders deeper to cut down on extra-base hits.
The Bat X might be a little too bullish, but the Phillies are far closer to the Braves and New York Mets than the odds that paint the division as a two-team race suggest. Look for all three teams to be bunched tightly together for most of the year.
Minnesota Twins to win American League Central at 8-to-1 (South Point)
The perception of the Twins is being unfairly held down by last year’s 73-89 record, which wasn’t quite as bad as it looked.
Minnesota was beset by injuries—including to MVP candidate Byron Buxton, who has been bet down to 12-to-1 to win the award at Circa—and opted to hold players out at the end of the season rather than rushing them back for meaningless games. The Twins had been a perennial contender before last season and should get back to challenging their division’s heavily favored White Sox this year, especially after signing star shortstop Carlos Correa in free agency.
With the rest of the teams in the AL Central too young or cheap to emerge as true contenders, the division is a two-team race being priced as a one-team runaway.
Shohei Ohtani to win American League Cy Young at 25-to-1 (BetMGM)
When Ohtani first came to the Angels four years ago after starring in Japan, some scoffed at the idea of letting him hit, because his pitching was so valuable. That seems foolish now after a 46-home run season that led him to an MVP award last year, but by the end of the season, he was struggling with strikeouts at the plate while thriving on the mound.
He’s a viable candidate to win back-to-back MVP awards given his success in both categories, but at +350 going into this year instead of last year’s 25-to-1, the value is gone in that market. The better way to still back Ohtani is to go for the high payout in the possibility that he continues to progress as a pitcher.
Manny Machado to win National League Most Valuable Player at 30-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The National League’s top offensive teams, the Dodgers and Braves, are so stacked, it’s difficult to figure out which player to back. It’s not so hard with the next tier’s San Diego Padres, not with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. missing the first two months with a wrist injury.
If San Diego lives up to the hype it carried into last season, it’s going to be because of the lineup’s other A-lister—Machado. The third baseman had a relative down year last season but is entering baseball’s traditional prime at 29 years old.
He’s only two years removed from finishing third in MVP voting, the third time he has finished in the top five. Machado might not deserve to be priced among favorites like Washington’s Juan Soto and Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr., but he shouldn’t be this far back, either.
Andrew Heaney to have most regular-season pitching wins at 300-to-1 (SuperBook)
The Dodgers are going to win so many games, no one in their starting rotation should be available at nearly this high.
The same reasoning worked last year when Julio Urias went from having to earn to his spot in the rotation to banking 20 wins and cashing at 80-to-1 from the preseason. The veteran Heaney doesn’t have the same upside as the younger Urias did then, but Heaney’s advanced metrics routinely grade out better than his traditional statistics.
Maybe a switch to the National League to play on a potentially all-time great team is what he needs to bring out the best in him. The prices in this market won’t fluctuate much for the first few weeks, at least on top, so take a couple ultra long shots like Heaney while figuring out which favorites to back.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
