Raiders vs. Steelers has feel of playoff showdown in bitterly cold Pittsburgh

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The playoffs come early this year for Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. Tonight’s Christmas Eve matchup amounts to a de facto postseason game for the pair of storied franchises as the loser will almost surely be eliminated from playoff contention. The winner will still be alive for one of the AFC’s seven slot, though still on the outside looking in. Both teams have improved at the right time, as the Raiders have gone 4-1 since a 2-7 start to the season while the Steelers are 4-2 in their last six. The NFL scheduled this game in a Week 16 primetime slot as a 50th anniversary celebration of “The Immaculate Reception,” when the Steelers knocked the Raiders out of the playoffs with a controversial game-winning 60-yard reception by Franco Harris off a deflected pass. Pittsburgh plans to retire Harris’ No. 32 jersey in a halftime ceremony. The Hall of Fame fullback unexpectedly died in his sleep this week.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ fully healthy passing game vs. Steelers’ pass defense

The temperature is expected to feel like it's as low as minus-10 degrees with the windchill at kickoff, so this typically wouldn’t be a spot where a team tries to beat an opponent through the air. But the Raiders may have no better choice and need to hope quarterback Derek Carr means it when he says the cold doesn’t bother him. The Steelers have been one of the best run-stopping teams in the NFL, tied for fifth in giving up 4.1 yards per carry, but their defensive backfield hasn’t lived up to its reputation. The Steelers rank 28th in giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Raiders may not bomb it down the field often in the windy conditions but should find plenty of openings on short passing routes. Carr has his full complement of weapons for one of the first times this season, with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller having returned last week. They’re both expected to get a larger workloads in their second game back.

Problematic matchup: Steelers’ running game vs. Raiders’ rush defense

The Steelers constructed their team with games played in elements like this in mind, so they’ll always have a natural advantage at home late in the season. It’s no secret that they’re going to try to win the battle in the trenches and let second-year running back Najee Harris guide them to victory. That should be a concern for the Raiders considering they had their worst performance stopping the run all season in last week’s 30-24 win over the Patriots at Allegiant Stadium. New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson went for a career-high 172 rushing yards on 19 carries, and Harris is considered an even more talented runner. Las Vegas has improved its interior pass rush since the arrival of defensive tackle Jerry Tillery five weeks ago, but it’s come at the cost of less efficiency against the run. That’s a trade-off any NFL team would take overall, but not an ideal swap for a December game in Pittsburgh.

Gamebreaker: Safety Duron Harmon

The 10-year NFL veteran was brought in this offseason to provide leadership and serve as a rotational player in the defensive backfield, but he’s turned into so much more than that. Since the Raiders’ Week 10 win at Denver, Harmon has only come off the field for four plays. All of the missed time came because of minor injuries or cramping, because the Raiders otherwise can’t afford to not have Harmon out there. That speaks to not only how well the 31-year-old has performed but also how much the rest of the defense looks to him on a play-by-play basis. Many players credit a speech from Harmon about playing with more energy and passion during a film session as a reason the Raiders’ recent turnaround. On the field, the longtime Patriot is known more as a coverage safety, but he’s also excelled against the run this year and played closer to the line of scrimmage more often since the midseason release of Johnathan Abram.

Big Number: 27

Edge rusher Chandler Jones has logged 27 pressures over the past four games, ranking in the top 10 of the league in the span according to Pro Football Focus. He had only 19 pressures in the Raiders’ previous 10 games. The Raiders kept insisting better days were ahead for Jones, whom they defended as having made more of an impact than his early-season numbers indicated. They’ve gotten some validation with his recent hot streak. Jones had been making a difference long before the play he’ll now always be remembered for, his game-winning 48-yard touchdown off an intercepted lateral at the end of regulation against the Patriots. Before stiff-arming quarterback Mac Jones to the ground as part of the return, Chandler Jones had also hit the second-year quarterback twice during the game and batted down two of his passes. He’s suddenly looked like the pass-game menace the Raiders expected when they gave him a three-year, $51 million contract. Las Vegas needs Chandler Jones’ ascension to stick to have any chance to win the next three games consecutively.

Best Bet (6-8): Davante Adams over 5.5 receptions at even money

The Raiders’ top receiver has been relatively quiet in back-to-back games. He’s too talented and too big of a part of the Raiders’ offense for the slowdown to stretch into a third contest — even while battling through the cold and wind. Adams sternly stated this week that the weather “doesn’t affect” him after having played eight seasons in Green Bay. There’s more competition for targets now with Waller and Renfrow back, but that also means more talented pass-catchers that opponents have to cover. Out of all positions in the pass game, the Steelers have been worst at covering No. 1 receivers according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Adams is averaging more than six receptions per game despite the recent drop in production and should at least hit that mark in Pittsburgh.