Young Kwak/Associated Press
Gonzaga forward Drew Timme, left, controls the ball as Saint Mary’s forward Matthias Tass defends during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022, in Spokane, Wash.
Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022 | 2 a.m.
It’s college basketball’s time to shine in sportsbooks. After the Super Bowl, college basketball annually takes its short but significant turn at the top of betting interest over the next month and a half. It can feel like a race to catch up in time for the NCAA’s Tournament Selection Sunday, set for is March 13, so we’re here to help.
It’s impossible to provide a comprehensive guide to a sport with 358 teams, but here are 16 of the most important things to know before placing any college basketball bets.
1. Gonzaga, currently 4-to-1 to win the national championship at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, will almost surely go into the NCAA Tournament as the favorite for the second consecutive year. The usual debate on whether the Bulldogs’ weak West Coast Conference schedule prepares them well enough for the postseason is already raging.
2. Casual college basketball fans might be confused by Gonzaga sitting at the top of the betting boards, wondering: What about Auburn? The Tigers (currently 8-to-1) have been the near-consensus No. 1 team by the polls over the past month, but the betting market isn’t as high on them. That could either be interpreted as reasonable restraint for a team that has been lucky to go 5-2 in games decided by fewer than six points or stubbornness for not adjusting to a mispricing that saw Auburn at 150-to-1 to win the title going into the season.
3. Auburn’s record against the spread makes the latter seem likely. The Tigers were the most profitable bet among Power Five conference teams through 25 games at 18-7. The next-closest team was Texas Tech, which went 17-8 against the betting line.
4. The Red Raiders’ best win was a 65-62 upset victory at Baylor, ruining the defending national champion’s 15-game winning streak to start the season. The Bears have since hit a midseason lull, but don’t count them out. Baylor similarly slipped around this time last year before getting its groove back for the tournament.
5. The Big 12 is far and away rated as the best conference this season by any analytical set of numbers, including oddsmakers’ power ratings. In addition to Texas Tech and Baylor, Kansas and Texas also look like top-four seeds and Final Four threats.
6. Kansas is the slight favorite, +170 (i.e. risking $100 to win $170), over Baylor (+215) at Circa Sports to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament next month. The Jayhawks were expected to be among the most well-rounded teams in the nation this year but have instead been paced by National Player of the Year candidate Ochai Agbaji.
7. SEC fans surely balk at the Big 12 being rated as far and away the best conference. The former beat the latter in the annual SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge by a tally of 6-4 to prove its collection of teams can stack up against any conference. The SEC might have the greatest number of tournament teams with eight potential representatives (Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Florida and Mississippi State).
8. Kentucky had the cornerstone win of that SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge, smashing Kansas 80-62 in an upset on the road. The Wildcats haven’t reached a Final Four since 2015 but are now the second choice to win the title at 8-to-1 at the SuperBook, led by offensive and defensive dynamo Oscar Tshiebwe inside.
9. Duke handed Kentucky one of its four losses to start the season and remains in the championship hunt in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season. The Blue Devils are the only power-conference team that’s an odds-on favorite to win its conference tournament, with Circa pricing them at -135 (i.e. risking $135 to win $100) to win the ACC in a down year for the league.
10. The Big Ten is the other conference that appears to be on the same level as the Big 12 and SEC. It boasts a national-high five teams at 50-to-1 odds or better to win the championship: Purdue (10-to-1), Illinois (16-to-1), Michigan State (40-to-1), Wisconsin (50-to-1) and Ohio State (50-to-1).
11. Conspicuously missing from that list is Michigan, which was a No. 1 seed last year and came into this season as low as 8-to-1 to win the title. The Wolverines are now likely to miss the tournament after struggling all year, rivaling Memphis (which got as low as 12-to-1 in the preseason) as the most disappointing team in the nation. Both Michigan and Memphis are now on the tournament bubble at best and a consensus 100-to-1 apiece to win the title.
12. Purdue continues to be among the most popular championship futures bets, but the Boilermakers have their issues. They’re all offense and little defense behind the inside-out duo of Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey.
13. Wisconsin is just the opposite of Purdue—a nightmare for opponents to play with its defense and slow pace but a clear cut below the rest of the Big Ten contenders in terms of offense. That’s the Badgers’ usual formula, and it has worked pretty well in the postseason, with Wisconsin making five Sweet 16 appearances in the past 10 years.
14. Illinois, for the second straight year, looks like the most complete Big Ten team, without any clear weaknesses and a 7-foot game-changer in Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini were the trendiest bet going into last year’s NCAA Tournament—before getting upset by Loyola-Chicago in the second round—and history could repeat this year if they finish the regular season strong.
15. Arizona rivals Auburn as the championship threat no one saw coming. The Wildcats have gone from as high as 80-to-1 in the preseason to as low as 8-to-1 now to win the tournament in coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season. The longtime Gonzaga assistant has Arizona playing as sharp as any team in the nation, emphasizing offensive pace and defensive intensity.
16. Arizona has displaced UCLA as the Pac-12 favorite, even though the teams split their pair of meetings this season. The Bruins had a lot of hype entering the year off a surprise Final Four run last season but have now swelled from 10-to-1 to win the title to 20-to-1, despite veteran Johnny Juzang maintaining his breakout performance from last year’s tournament.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
