Analysis: Free agency to give first glimpse of Raiders under new power structure

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, March 14, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The New England Patriots shocked the NFL a year ago by going on a record-setting spending spree.

New England doled out more than $300 million, including nearly $160 million in guaranteed money, in the first week of free agency. In hindsight, the player-signing frenzy shouldn’t have come as a total surprise given that the Patriots had the cap space and roster needs to pave the way to such an approach.

But it was just so out of character for a franchise that had traditionally spent frugally in free agency under the direction of coach Bill Belichick. If anything, Belichick and the Patriots had caught the rest of the league off guard in past years with personnel moves that were exactly the opposite such as trading away cornerstone veterans.

Last year was a reminder that the Patriots have been nothing if not unpredictable over the last two decades. This is all relevant to the 2022 Las Vegas Raiders because a pair of former Patriots' staffers are now in control of the franchise in general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels.

The duo haven’t minced words about the influence Belichick and the Patriots instilled in them in a pair of media appearances since their hirings in late January, and that might be the only thing they’ve been completely transparent about. They’ve otherwise spoken in more generalities than absolutes, maintaining New England’s notorious shrouded-in-secrecy nature in Las Vegas.

"Being patient and trying to develop your roster over time and taking a longer-term approach to it is something that we're going to try to do," McDaniels said when asked about his roster-building philosophy at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis two weeks ago. "We know we have areas where we've got to address them at some point, whether that's a front-line player or depth, but we're no different than any other team at this point in time."

But the veil is about to drop, at least partially. The NFL’s open-negotiation period with free agents begins at 9 a.m. this morning ahead of the league’s new year starting at 1 p.m. Wednesday when players are available to be signed.

There’s been a lot of speculation about how the Raiders will proceed under the new regime, but no one really has any idea. The team has room to maneuver with a slightly above-average $14.3 million in effective cap space, according to Pro Football Focus, even before reportedly restructuring the expensive contracts of left tackle Kolton Miller and running back Kenyan Drake late last week.

Las Vegas currently has 38 players under contract for next year, less than half of the 90 NFL teams are allowed to bring into training camp. The Raiders’ biggest areas of need appear to be offensive live (where they were among the worst in the league last year), wide receiver (where Henry Ruggs’ arrest wiped out long-term plans), cornerback (with last year’s No. 1 Casey Hayward set to hit free agency) and interior defensive line (where all of last year’s main rotation players are free agents).

Some of those needs will be filled in the NFL Draft, which will be held locally starting on April 28, but not all of them. There’s an expectation the Raiders need to make a splash sooner to stay in contention to make the playoffs for a second straight season.

Raiders owner Mark Davis particularly mentioned the Patriots’ free-agency approach as one factor that drew him towards Ziegler during he and McDaniels' introductory news conference.

“With (the Patriots’) personnel and everything, it’s a lot of no-names that they do it with,” Davis said. “Every now and then they’ll bring in a big-name free agent, but he fits a spot and that kind of reminded me of the old Raiders in that way. We used to be able to do that.”

There are certainly players who fit that description available this year, ones that have fans excited and hoping Davis’ words turn into action. Superstar wide receiver Davante Adams topped the list until a week ago when the Green Bay Packers applied the franchise tag to keep him.

The fanbase’s focus has now has shifted towards Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson, whom NFL.com rates as the second-best unrestricted free agent available this season. The former undrafted free agent out of Maryland has 25 interceptions in his first four seasons — creating turnovers are an area where the Raiders have consistently struggled — and makes sense on the surface as a replacement for Hayward given his familiarity with Ziegler and McDaniels.

But maybe Hayward isn’t in as much of a hurry to join last year’s defensive coordinator Gus Bradley in Indianapolis as rumored and would be open to staying in Las Vegas with his replacement, Patrick Graham. The 32-year-old thrived with the Raiders, and should be available at a much smaller cost than the 26-year-old Jackson.

Or maybe money isn’t as much of a concern, and the Raiders will have more room to work with than anyone anticipates. There’s still the possibility that they could trade veteran quarterback Derek Carr as he enters the final season of his current five-year, $125 million deal.

The quarterback carousel is already spinning, and it’s turned the AFC West into an even bigger gauntlet with longtime Seahawks signal caller Russell Wilson being traded to the Denver Broncos last week. Las Vegas could fetch a handsome reward by joining in and parting with Carr instead of paying him with the mega-extension his level of production has earned.

It seems somewhat unlikely given Davis’ edict that the Raiders wouldn’t enter a rebuild under McDaniels and Ziegler. It’s an extreme longshot that Las Vegas would be able to upgrade from Carr for next season, so moving him would signal at least some level of a rebuild.

There’s no doubt that Carr has been solid and likely underrated during his eight-year tenure, but it can also be true that he’s not worth the $35 to $40 million per year it will require to keep him. That’s up to Ziegler and McDaniels to decide, and so far, they’ve been supportive of Carr but also noncommittal.

At the combine, McDaniels said extension talks had not begun with Carr but they might soon.

“I’ve met and spoken to Derek a number of times now, just trying to begin our relationship,” McDaniels said. “I think it's really an important one — the head coach, the play caller, the quarterback getting to know one another as people, kind of how we think, how we work. The football part of that will come later, which I think is also an important part of the puzzle.”

Good luck trying to decipher those comments for any hint on how the Raiders will piece together their roster starting at the top for next season. McDaniels and Ziegler have remained vague publicly not only because there’s no reason for them to be more open but also because it’s what they learned as standard operating procedure with the Patriots.

Last year especially proved the Patriots are capable of surprises, however, and so too might be the new-look Raiders.

A peek behind the curtain is imminent this week.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or