Defense first: UNLV basketball roster projection 2.0

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Friday, May 13, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Since our first attempt at a 2022-23 roster projection, which came just days after UNLV was eliminated from the Mountain West tournament in March, much has transpired within the program.

In the past two months, half the roster entered the transfer portal, half the coaching staff departed for greener pastures, and the entire high-school recruiting class decided transfer before enrolling, leaving coach Kevin Kruger to attempt a complete offseason rebuild. So far he has brought in five transfers, effectively restocking the roster with defensive-minded players at just about every position.

The situation has begun to calm as of late. The deadline to enter the portal passed on May 1, so we know for certain which players will return to UNLV, and with only two (or three) scholarship spots remaining, the roster is just waiting on a few finishing touches.

So what might the Rebels look like when the team takes the court in November? I’m going to tackle that question in phases throughout the offseason. First, I’m going to project the roster here based on what we know now, giving us a baseline, then I’m going to break down the newcomers throughout the next two months, using video analysis to determine what each of them brings to the table and what their roles might be. Then, after wrapping up those breakdowns (let’s try for one per week), I’ll come back and attempt another, hopefully more informed roster projection.

Got it? Let’s jump into the baseline projection:

STARTING LINEUP

Guard: Keshon Gilbert, sophomore

If pressed to say what identity the team will adopt next season, I’d have to say Kruger wants them to be a tough, aggressive, ball-hounding defense, and let everything else flow from there. And in that case, Gilbert is exactly the type of hound you want at the point of attack. He led UNLV in steal rate as a freshman (5.0%) and flashed elite playmaking chops on the defensive end. He’s also a bona fide tough guy who projects the type of “guard your yard” attitude Kruger wants. Gilbert’s offensive game is still a work in progress, but he can start at point guard and make a big impact by harassing opposing ballhandlers for 30-plus minutes each night.

Guard: Elijah Harkless, senior

A transfer from Oklahoma, Harkless is renowned for his aggressive approach to defense. At 6-foot-3, he can lock down guards and also size up against some forwards, which would make him an ideal partner with Gilbert in the UNLV backcourt. Harkless also brings some offensive punch, as he scored 10.0 points per game last year.

Guard: Elijah Parquet, senior

Another 6-foot-3 guard, Parquet was a Pac 12 All-Defense selection in 2020-21. Teaming the Colorado transfer with Gilbert and Harkless would give UNLV a super pesky group of perimeter defenders; if all breaks right, it’s possible to envision them swarming opponents on a nightly basis. On the offensive end, there are questions about how well this trio will fit together. Parquet only shot 22.2% from 3-point range last year, while Harkless (32.3%) and Gilbert (28.0%) weren’t much better.

Forward: Luis Rodriguez, senior

A starter at Ole Miss the last two years, the 6-foot-6 Rodriguez brings a ton of power-conference experience and a reputation for being an athletic, multiposition defender. He averaged 6.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals last season, and after playing 60 games over the past two years (51 starts), he appears to be a more reliable option at this spot than incumbent power forward Victor Iwuakor.

Center: David Muoka, senior

Muoka came a long, long way last season, going from unplayable early in the year to a key defensive stalwart by the time the conference tournament rolled around. If the 6-foot-11 shot-blocker can build on that through the offseason, he could be one of the best rim protectors in the Mountain West. Kruger must be drooling at the thought of Muoka backing his assembled crew of on-ball bulldogs.

BENCH

Guard: Justin Webster, senior

What UNLV’s starting backcourt doesn’t have in this scenario is a designated shooter. Webster could be that guy. He’s not enough of a defender to log 30 minutes a night in Kruger’s system, but when he’s popping in 3-pointers he brings real value off the bench.

Guard: Jackie Johnson, sophomore

If Kruger wants to move one of his defensive guards to the bench and play a more offensive-minded ballhandler at the start of games, Johnson is probably the best bet to get that nod. As a freshman at Duquesne last year he averaged 9.5 points in 19.4 minutes while hitting 37.3% from 3-point range. At 5-foot-11 he’s not likely to be an intimidating defender, but sandwiched between Gilbert/Harkless or Harkless/Parquet or Parquet/Gilbert he would be reasonably protected. Or Kruger could opt to use Johnson as a microwave bench scorer and give him the green light when the offense bogs down.

Guard: Jordan McCabe, senior

McCabe provided a steady hand last year, starting all but one contest and averaging 4.8 assists (against just 1.4 turnovers). Like Johnson, he could end up starting alongside two backcourt defenders, or he could be called on to run the second unit.

Forward: Isaiah Cottrell, junior

The upside here is huge. Cottrell is massive (6-foot-10, 240 pounds) and Kruger is high on his offensive skill set, though the college production hasn’t matched the recruiting hype yet. UNLV got a career year out of underutilized big man Royce Hamm last season; if Kruger and his staff can get Cottrell to reach his potential, Cottrell could be a starting-caliber impact big man for the next three years. For now, he projects as the third big in the rotation.

Forward: Victor Iwuakor, senior

Iwaukor was unavailable for a lot of the 2021-22 season due to injuries, and when he played he flashed limited offensive ability (41.7% shooting). But he still possesses a ton of defensive potential, and at 6-foot-7 he is the kind of versatile frontcourt piece that should work well in the kind of defensive system UNLV wants to play.

Open scholarships: 3

You’ll notice that Donovan Williams is no longer included in the 2022-23 projection, and that’s because I believe he will eventually opt to stay in the NBA Draft. This not based on anything Williams has said, but merely on reading between the lines. It appears as though the 6-foot-6 swingman really, really wants to go pro, and it’s not going to take much to convince him to keep his name in the draft.

That would leave UNLV with three open scholarships for 2022-23. There are some obvious needs along the roster, including perimeter shooting and an athletic wing (boy, wouldn’t Williams be a nice fit?), and Kruger has said he is targeting transfers who bring something new to the team in terms of skill set.

One thing we can say about the 22-23 squad at this point is that it is packed with athletic defenders; Kruger apparently thinks there’s no such thing as too many. So don’t be surprised if the remaining scholarships go to players who fit that mold, regardless of their shooting percentages.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.