Analysis: Carr, not McDaniels, under most pressure to turn Raiders around

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 3, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Fire the coach. Get rid of the quarterback.

Those are the two most common (sometimes over)-reactions from NFL fanbases when their team is falling far short of expectations. Fans of the Raiders are certainly fitting with the stereotype after a 2-5 start to what was one of the franchise’s most promising seasons in years coming in.

They need a primary target for their disappointment and vitriol following one of the worst losses since the team moved to Las Vegas three seasons ago, a 24-0 blowout at New Orleans last Sunday. Coach Josh McDaniels, who apologized for the defeat, and quarterback Derek Carr, who described the loss as embarrassing and inexcusable, have naturally cut to the front of the list.

There’s plenty of fingers to point towards the entire roster and organization, though. The defense, led by much-ballyhooed new coordinator Patrick Graham, ranks among the NFL’s worst in the majority of categories.

First-year general manager Dave Ziegler and his staff’s offseason decision to focus more on the glamour positions while neglecting arguably the team’s two biggest needs (offensive line and secondary) seems to have backfired. A full skeptic could point all the way to the top and argue owner Mark Davis erred by bringing in McDaniels and Ziegler when he had a playoff team last year with interim coach Rich Bisaccia and general manager Mike Mayock.

This isn’t to absolve Carr and McDaniels . Carr is inexplicably having one of his worst seasons in his ninth year despite having more talent around him than ever before (though some of that talent has been sidelined with injuries).

McDaniels hasn’t appeared to do anything to make it easier on him despite Carr clearly not looking fully comfortable in his system. Some of McDaniels’ playcalling has also left much to be desired, i.e. his continued insistence on de facto surrender screen passes to backup running backs on almost every third-and-long.

But this isn’t about assigning blame. If the Raiders keep at their current pace and finish around 5-12 with one of the league’s worst records, then calls to replace the coach and/or quarterback will be more than irrational noise. They’ll become reality.

So the question therefore is, who’s more likely go between McDaniels or Carr? Who needs to show more progress over the final nine games starting at 10 a.m. Sunday in Jacksonville to improve their job security?

Fairly or not, the answer is Carr and it’s not all that close. The 31-year-old quarterback has gotten far more chances with the Raiders than the 46-year-old coach, and his 59-76 lifetime record as a starter is worse than McDaniels’ 2-5 start with the team given its sample size.

More importantly, from a practicality standpoint, it would be easier to move on from Carr. Lost in the pageantry of him signing a three-year extension this offseason was the fact that nothing beyond this season was guaranteed.

Las Vegas could cut Carr after this season, up to three days after Super Bowl 57, with a relatively minimal $5.6 million cap hit. Carr gambled on himself by agreeing to those terms, and so far, it doesn’t look like a good bet.

Ziegler and McDaniels gave themselves an out if they determine Carr is not “their guy” at the game’s most important position. They inherited him after all and, for a while after they came aboard, there were at least some whispers and rumors of trade scenarios.

In this day and age of quarterback movement in the NFL, it conceivably wouldn’t be too difficult for the Raiders to find a new player at the position that can keep them competitive. It’s pretty obvious there’s no full-team teardown coming in the immediate future.

Davis made it clear a rebuild didn’t interest him this offseason, and all the Raiders’ moves — notably signing big-time free agents Davante Adams and Chandler Jones — fit under the win-now aim. The 67-year-old owner was extremely optimistic and excited about this season, and it’s that passion boiling over that’s caused him to hold lengthy, closed-door meetings with McDaniels immediately after two of the Raiders’ last three losses.

Some have interpreted those encounters as a threat to McDaniels’ job, but more likely, they were just Davis blowing off steam and demanding answers for the team’s poor play. He’d probably love to yell at the quarterback as much as the coach, but there’s a chain of command here.

Davis might be a maverick compared to most of the other NFL owners, but he’s savvy enough to know he can’t start firing off his mouth at his quarterback. There’s a decent chance the loss to the Saints was Davis’ last time staging a postgame confrontation with McDaniels anyway.

The Raiders aren’t going to win every game left on their schedule — though they’re just as unlikely to lose them all, which is one of the only routes where McDaniels’ job would be at risk — but they should play much better. They have played much better than they did in the Saints’ game all season, even in the four previous losses.

They might show enough progress to run it back next year with Carr, McDaniels et al. But with where things stand now, that’s not their current trajectory.

And if they stay on this course, the history of underachieving teams this talented indicates either a change at quarterback or coach is imminent. In this case, it looks like it will be the quarterback who takes the fall.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or