Tourney-bound? 75 predictions for UNLV basketball in 2022-23

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Monday, Nov. 7, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Heading into Kevin Kruger’s second year as head coach, UNLV basketball is hoping to finish off a quick, portal-fueled rebuild with a trip to the NCAA Tournament. But there is a lot of hoops to be played between Monday’s season opener vs. Southern University (7:15 p.m., Mountain West Network) and Selection Sunday.

How will it play out? Here are 75 predictions spanning the entire season:

1. Who will be UNLV’s leading scorer? E.J. Harkless. The fifth-year transfer averaged 10.0 points per game at Oklahoma last year in a complimentary role. Now cast as UNLV’s No. 1 option, Harkless should be able to bump his scoring up into the high teens. Early reviews are good; teammate Jordan McCabe said Harkless took over last Saturday’s closed-door scrimmage with bucket after bucket.

2. Will anyone match Bryce Hamilton’s 42 points in a single game? No.

3. How many times will Harkless score in double figures? 22 games.

4. Who will lead the team in made 3-pointers? Jackie Johnson. It remains to be seen if Johnson, a 5-foot-11 transfer, will crack the starting lineup, but he’s going to play a lot of minutes and Kruger is going to give him the green light. Johnson shot 37.3% last year as a freshman at Duquesne.

5. Who will lead the team in rebounds? David Muoka.

6. Will UNLV defeat a ranked team? Yes. Dayton is currently ranked No. 24 in the preseason poll, and the Scarlet and Gray get them at home in the third game of the season. It’s a perfect opportunity for Kruger’s rebuilt squad to spring an early-season upset.

7. What will be UNLV’s longest winning streak? Five games (twice): Nov. 7-21, Jan. 14-28.

8. What will be the longest losing streak? Three games: Dec. 31-Jan. 11.

9. Will the 3-point streak survive the season? Yes.

10. Who will be UNLV’s most accurate 3-point shooter? Jackie Johnson.

11. Will UNLV land a commitment from a 4-star high school recruit during the season? Yes.

12. Who will lead the team in steals? Keshon Gilbert. As a freshman last year, Gilbert led the team in thefts and posted an elite steal rate of 5.0 percent. Look for him to start all season and average more than 2.0 steals.

13. Which newcomer will have the biggest impact? E.J. Harkless. There’s a lot of competition here, as Kruger brought in seven experienced college transfers. Johnson, former Colorado guard Eli Parquet and former Mississippi forward Luis Rodriguez also figure to play big roles, but Harkless will carry the heaviest offensive load.

14. Which home game will have the highest attendance? vs. UNR, Jan. 28.

15. What will be the starting five on opening night? Keshon Gilbert, Eli Parquet, E.J. Harkless, Luis Rodriguez, David Muoka.

16. Will Jackie Johnson start a game? Yes.

17. Can UNLV connect on an alley-oop? Yes. Converting lob passes was a struggle last year, and the team lost elite finisher Donovan Williams. But this crew appears to have better touch on the pass and good vertical threats at the rim. They’ll slam home their share of oops.

18. Who will lead the team in assists? Jordan McCabe.

19. Will UNLV sweep any conference opponents? Yes: San Jose State, Utah State, Fresno State and UNR.

20. Will UNLV get swept by any conference opponents? Yes: San Diego State and Boise State.

21. Will a UNLV player be named to the All-Mountain West first team? No.

22. Will UNLV win a Mountain West tournament game? Yes.

23. Who will lead the team in double-doubles? Luis Rodriguez. He had two double-doubles last year at Mississippi, while returning center David Muoka topped out at nine rebounds in 2021-22.

24. Who will be the team’s second-leading scorer? Jackie Johnson.

25. Will Kevin Kruger pick up a technical foul? No.

26. How many games will go to overtime? One: Jan. 14 vs. Colorado State.

27. Where will UNLV’s defense rank in the Mountain West? The Scarlet and Gray allowed 65.6 points per game last year, which was fifth-best in the MWC. They’ll improve to fourth this season at 62.5 points.

28. Where will UNLV peak in the KenPom ratings? No. 88.

29. Will UNLV score 100 points in any game? No.

30. Who will play more, David Muoka or Isaiah Cottrell? Muoka. Cottrell’s ability to hit from the outside is intriguing, especially on a team that is thirsting for shooting, but Kruger wants to default to an identity built on defense. Ultimately, that will lead to Muoka logging major minutes in the post.

31. Will UNLV lose a player to the transfer portal during the season? No.

32. Will any players make the MWC All-Defensive team? Yes: Keshon Gilbert.

33. How many different players will lead the team in scoring? Four: E.J. Harkless, Luis Rodriguez, Jackie Johnson, Keshon Gilbert.

34. Who will lead UNLV in total minutes? E.J. Harkless.

35. Which point guard will play more, Jordan McCabe or Jackie Johnson? Johnson. McCabe is steady, but Johnson is more dynamic.

36. How much playing time will Keyshawn Hall get? 4.4 minutes per game.

37. Will Victor Iwuakor start a game? No.

38. Will Keshon Gilbert help up a fallen opponent? No.

39. Where will UNLV rank in scoring among MWC teams? Seventh. After posting 69.9 points per game last year, the Scarlet and Gray will take a step back to 68.1 points.

40. Will UNLV beat San Diego State? No.

41. What will be the lowest-scoring game for a UNLV opponent? 45 points vs. High Point.

42. What will be UNLV’s highest scoring game? 92 points vs. High Point.

43. Which player is poised for a breakout campaign? Luis Rodriguez. He was deployed as a glue guy at Mississippi, but the UNLV coaching staff believes he has more to offer. He’ll get to shoot more than ever, and his clever defense is fun to watch. He’ll be a fan favorite.

44. Where will UNLV finish in the Mountain West standings? Fifth place.

45. Will UNLV make the NCAA Tournament? No. There’s a clear plan in place under Kruger — defense and toughness — and that’s a start. But there are too many question marks on offense to pencil in the Scarlet and Gray when the field is revealed in March.

46-75. Which games will UNLV win and lose?

Monday vs. Southern University — Win (1-0)

Nov. 12 vs. Incarnate Word — Win (2-0)

Nov. 15 vs. Dayton — Win (3-0)

Nov. 18 vs. High Point — Win (4-0)

Nov. 21 vs. Southern Illinois (at San Juan Capistrano) — Win (5-0)

Nov. 23 vs. Cal Baptist / Minnesota (at San Juan Capistrano) — Loss (5-1)

Nov. 26 vs. Life Pacific — Win (6-1)

Dec. 3 at San Diego — Win (7-1)

Dec. 7 vs. Hawaii (at Dollar Loan Center) — Win (8-1)

Dec. 10 vs. Washington State (at MGM Grand) — Win (9-1)

Dec. 17 vs. San Francisco — Loss (9-2)

Dec. 22 vs. Southern Mississippi — Win (10-2)

Dec. 28 at San Jose State — Win (11-2)

Dec. 31 vs. San Diego State — Loss (11-3)

Jan. 7 at New Mexico — Loss (11-4)

Jan. 11 vs. Boise State — Loss (11-5)

Jan. 14 vs. Colorado State — Win (12-5)

Jan. 17 at Utah State — Win (13-5)

Jan. 21 at Fresno State — Win (14-5)

Jan. 24 vs. Wyoming — Win (15-5)

Jan. 28 vs. UNR — Win (16-5)

Jan. 31 at Colorado State — Loss (16-6)

Feb. 3 vs. Fresno State — Win (17-6)

Feb. 8 at Wyoming — Loss (17-7)

Feb. 11 at San Diego State — Loss (17-8)

Feb. 14 vs. San Jose State — Win (18-8)

Feb. 19 at Boise State — Loss (18-9)

Feb. 24 vs. Air Force — Win (19-9)

March 1 vs. Utah State — Win (20-9)

March 4 at UNR — Win (21-9)

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.