San Diego State Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher calls out from the sidelines during a NCAA basketball game against the UNLV Rebels at Thomas & Mack Center Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022.
Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022 | 2 a.m.
It’s a historic season for men’s college basketball in Las Vegas, with the NCAA Tournament coming to town for the first time—the West Regional in March 2023. And intentionally or not, local sportsbooks seem to have stepped up their game in accordance.
It used to be difficult to find anything beyond future odds to win the national championship posted in Las Vegas at this time of the year. But offerings at a handful of shops are up considerably this year. Let’s dig through five newer markets found around town and identify worthwhile bets in each of them.
Pre-conference season tournament future odds Oregon to win the Phil Knight Invitational at +850 (i.e. risking $100 to win $850) (Boyd Sports)
Perhaps the deepest field in this year’s handful of eight-team Thanksgiving weekend tournaments will assemble at Portland’s Moda Center—a two-hour drive up the highway from the Oregon campus.
The Ducks will draw a partisan crowd, though they aren’t getting an adjustment for homecourt advantage at this price. Oregon is available at the third-longest odds behind Iowa State (+950) and Portland (190-to-1).
Portland doesn’t have the talent level of the Power Five schools, and opens with a game against the nation’s No. 1 team in North Carolina, but Oregon won’t be as outmanned. With three seven-footers—N’Faly Dante, Kel’el Ware and Nate Bittle—the Ducks present matchup problems for every team in the country.
Stock is down on Oregon after it was upset by UC Irvine in its second game of the season, but that shot these odds up from 5-to-1. That’s too big of a swing and creates value on the pseudo host team.
Regular-season conference future odds: Illinois to win the Big Ten at +550 (BetMGM)
The Big Ten might be the most wide-open major conference in college basketball this season, even though Indiana is priced as a consensus favorite at 3-to-1.
The Hoosiers might have the best player in the conference in big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, but it’s only coach Mike Woodson’s second year. His systems aren’t as ingrained as the ones at Illinois behind the sharp Brad Underwood, who’s entering his sixth season, and his roster isn’t as complete.
Underwood landed a couple key transfers in Terrence Shannon (Texas Tech) and Dain Dainja (Baylor) this offseason to make Illinois as lethal offensively as it already shaped up to be defensively. The duo’s versatility allows Illinois to play more positionless than its conference rivals, which could be the difference in elevating it.
Regular-season conference win totals: Creighton under 14.5 wins at +110 (Caesars/William Hill)
Creighton is this year’s trendiest sleeper after giving eventual national champion Kansas a scare in the round of 32 during last year’s NCAA Tournament. But teams tabbed to take a jump from good to great after tournament success have a history of underperforming.
Perhaps the Bluejays will be an exception, but star sophomores Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kamala will need to become more consistent. They had great moments last year but too many off nights, especially in a conference as evenly matched as the Big East.
Georgetown went 0-19 last year and should continue to struggle, but the other 10 teams should all be able to beat each other on any given night. No one is likely to get to 15-5 in the conference.
To win the John Wooden Award: Drew Timme at +800 (Caesars/William Hill)
Timme is listed as a co-favorite with North Carolina’s Armando Bacot but should stand alone at as much as half of this price tag.
Gonzaga’s senior big man has been a finalist for college basketball’s most prestigious individual award the past two years but narrowly fell short to Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe (11-to-1 this year) in 2021 and Dayton’s Obi Toppin (currently with the New York Knicks) in 2020. At Timme’s current pace this season, he’s going to be too far ahead of the pack statistically to deny.
Through the first two weeks of the season, Timme was way ahead of every other player by kenpom.com’s Player of the Year score. A minority of voters might still scoff at such analytical measures, but many more use kenpom as college basketball’s foremost resource.
To reach the Final Four: San Diego State at +1250 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The Aztecs were in position to be a No. 2 seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament before the pandemic canceled the event, and this year’s team shapes up quite similarly.
Coach Brian Dutcher again has a savvy, veteran bunch that takes care of the ball and attempts high-percentage shots on offense while suffocating opponents on defense. San Diego State lost only twice during the 2020 season and could be on an equal trajectory this year, if it comes out of the Maui Invitational relatively unscathed.
The Mountain West Conference is improved this season, but no one looks strong enough to stop the Aztecs from claiming their third-conference title in four years. That should put them in prime position with a high seed to be the conference’s first-ever Final Four representative.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
