Analysis: Could Raiders reverse their fate and go on a six-game win streak?

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 21, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The last thing Josh Jacobs said in the locker room at Arrowhead Stadium two weeks ago before the Raiders went on their bye was that he thought the team had opened the eyes of “a lot of America.” Despite Las Vegas losing 30-29 in Kansas City that night, the Raiders’ running back was confident it proved something to football fans with their strong performance.

He’s turned out to be right. There’s an inordinate amount of external optimism for the Raiders considering their AFC-worst 1-4 record, so much that the players couldn’t help but take notice during a week off.

“You look at some of the power rankings and the fact that they have us where they have us after having one victory at this point, that shows we’re doing something out there that people are taking notice of,” wide receiver Davante Adams said. “We’re just not finishing to the best of our ability.”

The next six weeks should provide an opportunity for the Raiders to figure it out. Most of the power rankings Adams referenced — notably including those derived from the betting market — indicate the Raiders aren’t playing a team better than them until a Week 13 game hosting the Chargers.

That’s made for a groundswell of support calling for the Raiders to go on as much as a six-game winning streak to turn their season around, and not just from fans. Even national analysts are predicting the Raiders to break out in such a big way.

But how practical is it for the Raiders to go on a six-game winning streak that would be the franchise’s longest in 38 years? Let’s look into it by going game by game and peeking at the betting odds in each contest.

Caesars/William Hill made it easy to do by updating their full-season point spreads on Thursday, so that's the source of all the following point spreads.

Week 7: Vs. Houston Texans

Current Line: Raiders -7

Implied Win Probability: 73.3%

All playoff hope is lost if the Raiders lose in their return to the field Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. This is the Raiders’ easiest game left on the schedule by far, and if they can’t beat the Texans, they’re highly unlikely to go on a run against more evenly-matched opponents.

Week 8: At New Orleans Saints

Current Line: Raiders +1

Implied Win Probability: 46.5%

A lot will come down to the Saints’ injury situation in this game as they’re currently the most beaten-up team in the NFL. The Raiders could flip to the favorite if the Saints don’t get some reinforcements back before next week, even though Caesars Superdome typically makes for one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL.

Week 9: At Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Line: Pick’em

Implied Win Probability: 50%

The Jaguars lead the league in variance week-to-week, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, meaning it’s hard to know what you’re going to get out of them. They’re talented enough but have both blown out the Chargers 38-10 and gotten upset by the Texans 13-6 within a span of three weeks.

Week 10: Vs. Indianapolis Colts

Current Line: Raiders -2

Implied Win Probability: 56.5%

The Raiders beat the Colts 23-20 on the road last year as part of their four-game win streak to end the regular season and reach the playoffs, but also got blown out in Indianapolis’ lone trip to Allegiant Stadium, 44-27, in 2020. This looks like a third straight close game.

Week 11: At Denver Broncos

Current Line: Raiders +1

Implied Win Probability: 46.5%

The Raiders have won two straight at Empower Field at Mile High, and five consecutive in the overall series, but the betting market has remained higher on the Broncos than conventional wisdom. Las Vegas’ lone win of the season was a 32-23 victory over Denver in Week 4, a game that was close into the fourth quarter.

Week 12: At Seattle Seahawks

Current Projected Line: Raiders -2

Implied Win Probability: 56.5%

This caps a brutal stretch of four road games in five weeks with three notoriously tough venues in the Superdome, Mile High and now the Seahawks’ Lumen Field. Las Vegas was a 3-point favorite in this game coming into the season, but Seattle (3-3) has been better than expected.

The verdict: A theoretical parlay on the Raiders to win each of their next six games based on the numbers above would pay out around 350-to-1. So, while it may not be impossible Las Vegas to go on the season-shifting winning streak some are calling for, it’s also highly unlikely. Of course, the spreads can shift and potentially in the Raiders’ favor if they get hot and avoid injuries but win streaks of that magnitude happen more infrequently in the NFL than it may seem.

They could be even more improbable this season considering the parity from the middle to bottom tiers in the NFL, illustrated by all the sub-field goal spreads in the above exercise. Consider that out of 32 teams this season, only one has started 6-0 (the Philadelphia Eagles) and just two more are 5-1 (the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings).

Las Vegas is better than its current 1-4 mark and will probably post a winning record the rest of the way to finish the season around .500. But it’s going to be extremely difficult to make the postseason given the early deficit the Raiders have put themselves in.

Their odds to make the playoffs at William Hill/Caesars — -340 (i.e. risking $340 to win $100) on the yes and +260 (i.e. risking $100 to win $260) on the no — indicate a 25% chance. Those numbers will surely improve if they can go just 4-2 over the next six weeks, which sounds like a far more reasonable expectation.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or