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Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023 | 2 a.m.
Hundreds of wagers are available locally on every NFL team going into the season, and I dug through almost all of them in an attempt to find some gems. Here’s a best bet on all 32 NFL teams before the 2023-2024 season, which kicks off on September 7.
Arizona Cardinals
+7 on the point spread vs. Washington in Week 1 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)
Most rate Arizona as the worst team in the league but the market is pricing it as historically bad, and that might be a reach. Washington isn’t much better and shouldn’t give a touchdown against anyone.
Atlanta Falcons
To win the NFC South at +220 (i.e. risking $100 to win $220) (Boyd Sports)
It’s an evenly matched, two-team race to win the NFC South between the Falcons and Saints, but the former is offered nearly twice as high as the latter.
Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 (BetMGM)
The Ravens are going more pass-heavy under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the first-round receiver out of Boston College has been the talk of training camp.
Buffalo Bills
To be the last remaining undefeated team at 10-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)
A virtual pick’em at the Jets in Week 1 is tricky, but if the juggernaut Bills survive that test, they’re clear favorites in their next seven games.
Carolina Panthers
Under 8 wins at -140 (i.e. risking $140 to win $100) (South Point)
Quarterback Bryce Young, the top overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, represents long-term hope, but there’s not nearly enough top-flight talent around him to contend right away.
Chicago Bears
Under 2,900.5 passing yards for Justin Fields at -115 (Caesars/William Hill)
The third-year Ohio State product has been a terrific runner but dreadful passer so far in his career, and the arrival of former Panthers receiver D.J. Moore shouldn’t be enough to push him into respectable territory.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year at 12-to-1 (Boyd)
The third-year receiver probably deserves more credit than he’s gotten for quarterback Joe Burrow’s superstar turn, and he just might get it this year if his production doesn’t fall off much while Burrow recovers from a calf injury early in the season.
Cleveland Browns
Will make the playoffs at +112 (Boyd)
As long as quarterback Deshaun Watson can be a fraction as successful as he was in four seasons with the Houston Texans, the Browns look like the rare team without a discernible weakness.
Dallas Cowboys
To have the most regular-season wins at 15-to-1 (Boyd)
The Cowboys’ defense almost unanimously rates out as the best in the league going into the season, and the offense has an upside just as high if it can cut down on a nagging turnover problem that persisted last year.
Denver Broncos
Under 2.5 division wins at +130 (Caesars/William Hill)
Denver has won a total of three games in the AFC West over the past three years, and though the division’s hype has diminished this year, it remains one of the toughest in the league.
Detroit Lions
Will make the playoffs at -160 (South Point)
Detroit barely missed a shot at its first postseason win since 1991 last year, and this team looks much better led by young stars like receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
Houston Texans
To have the fewest wins at 10-to-1 (Circa)
One of the league’s easiest schedules could prevent this from cashing, but from an overall roster-quality standpoint, the number is far too high.
Indianapolis Colts
Over 6.5 wins at -110 (SuperBook)
There’s too much star power all over the field—the likes of guard Quenton Nelson, running back Jonathan Taylor, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Shaquille Leonard—for the Colts to bottom out for a second straight year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
+3.5 on the point spread vs. the Chiefs in Week 2 (Caesars/William Hill)
The Jaguars’ offense should be too explosive to be this big of an underdog to anyone at home, even the defending Super Bowl champions.
Green Bay Packers
Matt LaFleur to win Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 (Boyd)
LaFleur has been one of the NFL’s sharpest coaches ever since taking over in Green Bay five years ago, and this is his first chance to get full credit following the offseason trade of three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kadarius Toney to win Offensive Player of the Year at 175-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)
If the former Giants’ first-round pick can ever stay healthy—and he has already missed training camp with a torn meniscus—his potential is tantalizing as the top receiving option for reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 11.5 sacks for Maxx Crosby at +120 (Caesars/William Hill)
The leader of the Raiders’ defense has 20.5 sacks over the past two seasons combined, but his off-the-chart pressure numbers indicate he’s been unlucky not to have a handful more.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 4,425.5 passing yards for Justin Herbert at -112 (Boyd)
This might look like an astronomical total, but Herbert has proven his durability and willingness to play through injury, and he now has a pass-happier play-caller in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Los Angeles Rams
+5 on the point spread vs. Seahawks in Week 1 (Wynn)
Depth is the Rams’ problem; they’ll likely tank if oft-injured quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp or defensive tackle Aaron Donald miss time, but all three are healthy going into the season.
Miami Dolphins:
Under 9.5 wins at +105 (South Point)
Expectations are way too high for an exciting, though mostly finesse, team that is facing arguably the NFL’s toughest schedule.
Minnesota Vikings
Under 9 wins at -125 (South Point)
The Vikings’ 13-4 record a year ago was a mirage considering they had a negative point differential on the season, and the front office is apparently aware, having spent the offseason shedding big-money contracts and positioning for the future.
New England Patriots
+2 on the point spread vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 2 (SuperBook)
The Patriots are undervalued overall coming off a rare down year, but a 4.5-point spread against the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 feels more properly priced than this Week 2 matchup.
New Orleans Saints: Over 9.5 wins at +115 (SuperBook)
The Saints have far and away the easiest schedule in the league, and should perform pretty steadily considering they also have one of the most experienced rosters in the league.
New York Giants: Under 1,000.5 rushing yards for Saquon Barkley (Caesars/William Hill)
The star running back struggled to stay on the field for a full season until last year, and still looms as a possibly greater threat in the passing game.
New York Jets: Under 1,125 receiving yards for Garrett Wilson at -112 (Boyd)
Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year may not as large of a workload as many expect with so many new veteran weapons joining the Jets to play alongside new quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +750 (Boyd)
The best player on Georgia’s back-to-back national championship teams was reportedly in the running for becoming the No. 1 overall draft pick before off-field troubles dropped him into the laps of Philadelphia, where he’s reportedly dominated training camp.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Will not make the playoffs at -130 (South Point)
This would be a far line in another division, but being forced to navigate through the Bengals, Ravens and Browns in the AFC North limits the Steelers’ ceiling.
San Francisco 49ers: To win the NFC West at -160 (SuperBook)
The other three teams in the division — the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals — are much further behind the 49ers than the odds indicate.
Seattle Seahawks: Under 9 wins at -115 (Golden Nugget)
Seattle eked out a 9-8 record last year in what amounted to a dream season, where it came in expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Regressing back towards reality is more likely this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 61.5 receptions for Mike Evans at -115 (Caesars/William Hill)
No one on Tampa Bay’s offense should be very prolific with Baker Mayfield at the quarterback helm, and being protected by a tissue-paper offensive line.
Tennessee Titans: +3.5 on the point spread vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 (Caesars/William Hill)
Derrick Henry is still the toughest running back in the NFL to take down, and the Chargers will still arguably field the worst rush defense in the NFL.
Washington Commanders: Over 6.5 sacks for Chase Young at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)
Buy low on the former No. 2 overall pick as injuries may have derailed the edge rusher the last two seasons but he remains an athletic freak surrounded by other impactful defensive linemen.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
