Analysis: O’Connell should, but likely won’t, start for Raiders if Garoppolo can’t

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The quarterback unit looked diminutive when the Raiders broke into positional-group drills at a practice on Wednesday in Henderson.

Starter Jimmy Garoppolo was present at the team facility and attended meetings all day but was not permitted on the practice field as he continued to progress through the NFL’s concussion protocol. That left only veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O’Connell firing off passes to each other near the 50-yard line on the Raiders’ first outdoor practice field.

One of those two currently stands as the favorite to make their first start in silver and black at 1:05 p.m. Sunday when the Raiders (1-2) travel to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles to take on the Chargers (1-2). The team is just doing its best to keep which quarterback it will be a secret.

Neither Hoyer nor O’Connell came into the locker room during Wednesday’s media availability, and coach Josh McDaniels was intentionally vague on how he plans to handle the situation.

“You just try to evaluate it in real time,” he said. “Experience is valuable, and at the same time, we’ll try to play the right person based on what the situation is and how practice goes.”

McDaniels is obviously privy to a lot more information and practice reps to inform his decision, but based on everything that’s been accessible to media since the Raiders started training camp this summer, “the right person” is clear.

It’s O’Connell.

The 37-year-old Hoyer is the consummate professional, and an asset to have around for both Garoppolo and O’Connell given his familiarity with McDaniels’ system dating back to his time in New England and his wide-ranging wisdom. But he’s 0-12 in his last 12 NFL starts without a victory since October 2, 2016, when he led the Chicago Bears to a 17-14 win over the Detroit Lions.

That means Hoyer doesn’t have an NFL victory since the Obama administration, or a full year before a local professional sports team debuted in Las Vegas.

Deeming him as the backup passer that “will help us have the best chance to win,” in McDaniels’ words, could be another mistake in a coaching tenure that can ill afford to keep making them.

Some of McDaniels’ biggest follies, including one that may have cost the Raiders the game in a 23-18 loss to the Steelers on Sunday, have likely come out of an intention to go the safer route. That same mentality could lead him to picking Hoyer over O’Connell for an early-season spot start.

The potential for embarrassment is admittedly much lower with Hoyer behind center. The journeyman former undrafted free agent out of Michigan State provides a level of guaranteed competence that O’Connell can’t match no matter how well he played in the preseason.

That’s not to say O’Connell’s success in the preseason is meaningless. On the contrary, the fourth-round rookie draft pick out of Purdue looked so capable that there should be added confidence in his ability going forward.

O’Connell led the league in passer rating during the exhibition slate, throwing for 482 yards and three touchdowns to no interceptions in three games, while making noticeable strides as training camp went on. He played so well that fans wondered if the Raiders really needed to apply one of 53 coveted roster spots on Hoyer, thinking they could instead proceed like many other teams and keep two quarterbacks instead of three.

That might have been a discussion point but it was never going to stick with McDaniels, an offensive coach who always seemed likely to utilize the new NFL rule allowing a third emergency quarterback to be active on gamedays.

O’Connell couldn’t have possibly done more to prove he was worthy of serving as Garoppolo’s backup, but instead he’s been the emergency option in all three games so far this season.

It’s a defendable choice considering if something happened to Garoppolo in-game, Hoyer is unlikely to be overwhelmed getting thrust into action after having done it so often through a 15-year NFL career that’s spanned nine different teams.

But with a whole week to prepare and craft a game plan, McDaniels should be able to put O’Connell in a position to thrive. Maybe O’Connell could even get the rest of the receiving options going beyond Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, the duo that has nearly monopolized the Raiders’ target share so far.

There’s little harm in giving him a chance and benefitting from a rare chance to evaluate the ever-valuable young quarterback in a real game.

Sure, fans will second-guess the decision if O’Connell implodes, but the response will be a lot more vitriolic if the Raiders lose in a non-competitive fashion behind Hoyer. And a seven-year sample size indicates that’s the most likely outcome of starting Hoyer.

The whole discussion could wind up being moot for now. Players don’t typically pass through the concussion protocol in less than a week, but Garoppolo may have a real chance.

He appeared to be in high spirits Wednesday and McDaniels reported he’s, “doing good so far.” If Garoppolo is cleared, McDaniels will have naturally scurried out of a bind for now.

But the decision between O’Connell and Hoyer is likely to resurface at some point of the season. It’s a challenge for any quarterback to play a full 17-game schedule, let alone one with a lengthy injury history like Garoppolo.

The right answer isn’t going to change though. When and if Garoppolo misses time, O’Connell should see the field.

“We’re just kind of taking it one day at a time, doing the best we can and preparing them as hard as we can for today and then we’ll see what tomorrow brings,” McDaniels said.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or