Will UNLV make the college football playoff? 61 predictions for 2024

The 2024 season could be historic for UNLV football. Not only is the team loaded with talent and poised for its best campaign, the new college football playoff format allots one berth for the top Group of 5 champion.

Incredible as it may sound, that gives UNLV, which lost in the Mountain West title game last year, a path to make the national playoff — if Barry Odom’s squad can navigate a tough regular-season schedule and emerge as the top-ranked team outside the power conferences.

With a nod to the 61 teams in Group of 5 conferences the Scarlet and Gray will have to beat out to earn that playoff spot, here are 61 predictions for UNLV football in 2024.

1. Which quarterback will start Week 1? Matthew Sluka. Barry Odom is trying to keep Houston guessing by not naming a starting QB in advance of the season opener, and even hinted that more than one signal-caller could see time. But Sluka will get the start and most of the playing time; by the end of training camp, the Holy Cross transfer was working with the first team offense, and his running ability adds another dimension to the already-lethal go-go offense.

2. How many games will Sluka start? 11. UNLV hasn’t had a quarterback start every game in a season since Jon Denton pulled the trick in 1996, so the odds are against Sluka here. Add in his penchant for scrambling and lowering his shoulder into defenders, and it’s likely he’ll get dinged at some point.

3. What will Sluka’s passing numbers look like at the end of the year? 62.2%, 2,610 yards, 21 touchdowns, five interceptions

4. What will Sluka’s rushing numbers look like (excluding sacks)? 104 carries, 650 yards, 10 touchdowns

5. Who will be UNLV’s No. 2 quarterback? Hajj-Malik Williams

6. Will UNLV make a change at quarterback due to performance? No

7. Will UNLV be ranked at any point this season? Yes. UNLV appeared in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP Top 25 poll last season, and though they didn’t draw any votes in the 2024 preseason poll, they did attract five points in the Coaches Poll, placing them an unofficial No. 41 in the rankings. A hot start should vault them into the Top 25.

8. Who will be UNLV’s placekicker? Caden Chittenden, freshman

9. What will be Chittenden’s longest field goal? 50 yards

10. Will Chittenden make a game-winner? Yes. The Faith Lutheran product looked good in camp, winning a three-way battle to replace All-American Jose Pizano. Special teams coordinator James Shibest said he has confidence in Chittenden in late-game situations. Pizano booted two game-winners last year; Chittenden will get his chance.

11. How many All-Mountain West first team selections will UNLV have on offense? Three: Tiger Shanks, Jai’Den Thomas, Ricky White

12. How many All-Mountain West first team selections on defense? Three: Johnathan Baldwin, Cameron Oliver, Jackson Woodard

13. How many All-American first team selections will UNLV have? One: Ricky White

14. Which newcomer will make the biggest impact on offense? Greg Burrell, freshman running back

15. Will Burrell break the school’s freshman touchdown record? No. Jai’Den Thomas set the record last year with 12 TDs, and Burrell wants it. Sitting next to Thomas in a joint press conference, the Desert Pines product said “I’m coming for him. I’m on his neck.” But with Sluka siphoning rushing touchdowns, there won’t be enough red-zone carries for Burrell to seriously challenge the record.

16. Who will lead the team in interceptions? Cameron Oliver, four

17. How many turnovers will the defense force? 29

18. How many times will UNLV top 300 yards rushing in a game? Three. The Scarlet and Gray did it twice last year, rushing for 307 yards in consecutive wins over UTEP and Hawaii, and the offensive line is even more powerful this time around.

19. How many rushing touchdowns will UNLV score? 40. The go-go offense produced 39 rushing TDs a year ago, ranking UNLV second in the nation. They’ll do one better in Brennan Marion’s second season as coordinator.

20. Will Ricky White break his own school record for receiving yards in a season (1,483)? Yes

21. Will White break UNLV’s record for career receiving yards? Yes. The current record holder is Ryan Wolfe (3,495 yards from 2006 to 2009), and White enters the 2024 campaign at 2,104 yards (not counting the 223 yards he had as a freshman at Michigan State before transferring). If UNLV makes the Mountain West championship and White plays all 14 games — he played all 14 last year and all 12 in 2022 — he would need to average 99.4 yards per contest to get the 1,392 he needs to break the record. He’s got it in the bag.

22. How many UNLV runners will record a 100-yard game? Two: Jai’Den Thomas and Matthew Sluka (Thomas was the only player to hit the century mark last year).

23. Will UNLV score a touchdown on special teams? Yes

24. Will Ricky White block a punt? Yes. Like most of UNLV’s quality starters, White also plays special teams, specifically as a rusher on the punt unit. He came close to blocking one last year against Colorado State, and he’s now on a quest to get his hands on one. “I am for sure going to get me a blocked punt this year,” he said.

25. Will Jacob De Jesus snap UNLV’s 22-year drought by returning a punt for a touchdown? Yes

26. Will UNLV record a comeback win as big as their 17-point rallies against Vanderbilt and Air Force last year? No

27. Will UNLV hold an opponent to single-digit points? No

28. Who will lead the team in sacks? Johnathan Baldwin, 4.5 sacks

29. Who will lead the team in tackles? Jackson Woodard, 112 tackles

30. Will UNLV score on its first offensive play? No. Vincent Davis opened the 2023 season by breaking free for a 69-yard touchdown, but let’s not hold Marion’s go-go offense to that standard every year. Give the Scarlet and Gray at least three or four plays to get into the end zone in Week 1.

31. Who will record the longest run of the season? Matthew Sluka, 71 yards

32. Who will have the longest reception in 2024? Jacob De Jesus, 75 yards

33. How many UNLV players will score a touchdown in 2024? 13

34. What will be UNLV’s record in one-possession games? 3-0

35. Which home game will draw the highest attendance? vs. Boise State, Oct. 25 (29,500)

36. How many times will UNLV top 40 points in a game? Six. The go-go went on a run of four straight 40-pointers in the first half of last season, and the offense could be even more explosive in 2024.

37. What will be UNLV’s highest scoring game? 51 points vs. Fresno State, Sept. 28

38. Will UNLV have a 1,000-yard rusher? No

39. How many rushing touchdowns for Jai’Den Thomas? 16

40. Which newcomer will make the biggest impact on defense? Jalen Catalon, safety. UNLV needed an upgrade in the back end of the defense, and the Texas transfer looked sharp in training camp. Teammates and coaches have raved about his speed to the ball. Look for Catalon to make a difference immediately.

41. Where will UNLV’s offense rank in the Mountain West? 1st

42. Where will UNLV’s defense rank in the Mountain West? 5th

43. How many gains of 30-plus yards will the defense allow? 29. Barry Odom wants to play a bend-don’t-break style of defense, but UNLV flunked the test last year, allowing 46 explosive gains — the most in the entire country. Limiting those 30-plus chunks will do wonders for the D.

44. Will the defense hold Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty under 150 yards? No

45. What will be UNLV’s best win? vs. Boise State, Oct. 25

46. Will Barry Odom coach UNLV in the postseason? Yes

47. Will Brennan Marion coach UNLV in the postseason? Yes. Under the previous postseason format, both Marion and Odom could have been poached by other schools before UNLV’s bowl game. But if the Scarlet and Gray win the Mountain West and make the playoffs, we won’t see any coaching movement until after the season is concluded.

48. Will UNLV make the college football playoff? Yes

49-61. Which games will UNLV win (and lose)?

Aug. 31 at Houston — Win (1-0)

Sept. 7 vs. Utah Tech — Win (2-0)

Sept. 13 at Kansas — Win (3-0)

Sept. 28 vs. Fresno State — Win (4-0)

Oct. 4 vs. Syracuse — Win (5-0)

Oct. 11 at Utah State — Win (6-0)

Oct. 19 at Oregon State — Loss (6-1)

Oct. 25 vs. Boise State — Win (7-1)

Nov. 9 at Hawaii — Win (8-1)

Nov. 16 vs. San Diego State — Win (9-1)

Nov. 22 at San Jose State — Win (10-1)

Nov. 30 vs. UNR — Win (11-1)

Dec. 7 vs. TBA (Mountain West championship game) — Win (12-1)

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.