Scott Sonner / AP
Retired Army Capt. Sam Brown, left, Air Force Col. Tony Grady, center, and Nevada Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, right, greet veterans and their guests while serving up free hotdogs at the VFW post in Reno, Nev., on Sept. 1, 2022. Brown, who was nearly killed during combat in Afghanistan and lost the GOP Senate primary to Laxalt, is now rallying behind the campaign of Laxalt, who served as a Navy Judge Advocate General in Iraq and is trying to unseat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev.
Sunday, March 10, 2024 | 3 a.m.
Sam Brown, the retired U.S. Army captain, is polling as the front-runner to win the Nevada Republican primary in June for U.S. Senate.
Fittingly, Brown grabbed a key endorsement last week from within his party when Gov. Joe Lombardo announced his support.
But for Brown and the others vying to face Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., in the November general election, there’s one endorsement that’s most coveted: from former President Donald Trump.
“Trump wants to support winners,” wrote David Damore, chairman of the political science department at UNLV, in a message to the Sun.
Damore said Trump has been more selective in his endorsements during this election cycle as compared with 2022, when Democrats largely staved off anticipated Republican gains in the U.S. House and Senate. That, Damore said, was the result of Trump-endorsed candidates who performed strongly in their primary but failed to attract critical independent voters, like former NFL standout Herschel Walker or reality TV star Mehmet Oz in Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania, respectively.
A Feb. 20 Emerson College poll shows Brown — who has earned the backing of the GOP’s Senate fundraising arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee — trailing Rosen by two percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, 40% to 38%, with 22% undecided.
That same poll also showed Rosen leading by six percentage points against former Nevada Assemblyman Jim Marchant (42% to 36%) and an 11-point lead over Jeff Gunter (43% to 32%), who was the Trump-appointed U.S. ambassador to Iceland from 2019 to 2021.
Whoever wins the primary will spend plenty of time campaigning with Trump, who will likely be a regular in Las Vegas as he attempts to win swing state Nevada in a rematch of the 2020 election against President Joe Biden. Trump was defeated in 2020 in Nevada by about 30,000 votes.
“Trump appears to be more strategic (that is, considering general election electability) in his endorsements now than previously,” Damore said. “Marchant is most aligned with Trump … but the fact that Democrats would love to face Marchant and much of the GOP establishment is aligning behind Brown suggests a realization that being the most Trumpian Republican in a swing state is not a viable path forward in the general election.”
Lombardo did not outwardly seek Trump’s endorsement in his 2022 gubernatorial run, but he was the only Republican in Nevada to earn Trump’s backing and win election. Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who Trump also campaigned for, lost his bid to Democratic U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by less than 9,000 votes.
Brown in January issued his own endorsement of Trump, while other candidates in the seven-person field are still trying to convey themselves as closer allies to Trump than Brown. Gunter on Wednesday was received at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for a fundraiser on his behalf, which was attended by the former president and other GOP notables. Gunter on social media often uses the moniker “Swampy Sam Brown” to paint Brown as an establishment figure.
An internal memo dated January from Gunter’s campaign obtained by the Sun suggests Trump’s endorsement would be a boon for him. The memo cited a survey of likely Nevada GOP primary voters and found “the most likely candidate to win the Republican primary is the one that embraces former President Trump.”
That poll further found candidates aligned with Trump were vastly popular compared with those backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Approximately 74% of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Gunter once labeled a so-called “America First” candidate, as opposed to 13% who said they were more likely to support Brown.
Trump leads Biden in most polls on issues of the economy and immigration, but it will also be important for Trump when he does endorse a Senate candidate in Nevada to choose a candidate who can resonate with voters on issues key here, said Lisa Mayo-DeRiso, a Las Vegas-based political consultant. Among those, she said, are improving the state’s public education system or expanding access to health care and mental health resources.
“We routinely score at the bottom of a lot of kitchen table issues,” Mayo-DeRiso said. “If Trump is going to give an endorsement to Sam Brown, I think it has to be an endorsement that says ‘I will stand with you side-by-side and we will solve Nevada’s issues.’ ”
And aside from Brown’s ties from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, other candidates in the race (as well as supporters of Rosen) have also criticized Brown’s lack of public appearances and said he was unwilling to engage in debate. Brown has skipped each of the first three GOP primary debates, but he told organizers ahead of the Feb. 15 forum he would consider future debate invitations after the March 15 filing deadline — when candidates can no longer enter the race.
Brown’s detractors say such a refusal to debate thus far hurts voters, who they say are looking to make the most informed decision possible. Brown finished second to Laxalt in the 2022 Republican Senate primary, and during that cycle he challenged Laxalt to debate on several occasions. Brown went as far as accusing the former AG of “cowardly hiding from voters.”
Nevertheless, Brown leads the GOP field in fundraising with more than $3 million recorded in receipts as of the most recent filing deadline. Gunter has the next highest amount at $406,586.
Between an early fundraising advantage and a lead in polling, Brown’s camp is taking a calculated risk in hopes he can navigate the primary without alienating hardcore Republicans while courting a more moderate base for the Nov. 5 general election.
“He is going to want Trump’s endorsement because that’s going to be the base,” said Sondra Cosgrove, a local elections expert and history professor at the College of Southern Nevada.
Damore said that by not debating at this point in the race, the Brown campaign is simply playing defense.
“While it may anger the other candidates and some of the party base, there is little incentive for Brown to participate in those types of events knowing that if he is forced to tack to the right in the primary that will hurt him in the general,” Damore said. “One of the most important adages in politics is ‘you don’t have to explain what you don’t say.’ Brown seems to be taking that to heart.”
