Does UNLV have a path to win the Mountain West tournament?

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Thursday, March 14, 2024 | 2 a.m.

If there is one thing this UNLV team has proven it can do, it’s beat good teams.

The inverse is also true — there were some bad losses scattered throughout the 2023-24 season — but the Scarlet and Gray went 4-1 against ranked teams, and the one loss came via a miracle five-point play that handed Utah State a disputed decision. This is a squad that can match up favorably with anyone in the Mountain West Conference.

Now the question is, can this team of giant slayers win three games in three days to earn its way into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 11 years?

No one is counting it out, as college basketball talking heads seem unified in declaring UNLV the proverbial “team no one wants to play” in the MWC tourney. The battle begins today, when Kevin Kruger’s team takes on rival San Diego State (2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network) in the conference quarterfinals.

Here are the things that need to go right in order for UNLV to reach the top of the mountain:

Whaley defense on LeDee

UNLV hadn’t defeated San Diego State in five years — until Rob Whaley stepped in and made his presence felt.

The junior forward dominated his matchup in a 62-58 home win March 5, and his matchup just happened to be Aztecs center Jaedon LeDee, the most unstoppable offensive force in the conference.

LeDee was named Mountain West Player of the Year after averaging 20.5 points on 55.7% shooting, but Whaley limited him to 12 points on 2-of-12 from the field.

Kruger credited Whaley’s interior defense as the biggest reason UNLV was able to prevail.

“It was unbelievable,” Kruger said. “The way he battled him, the way he held his ground, that’s two large humans playing basketball with a lot of physicality.

“Undoubtedly, we wouldn’t have had a chance to win that game had he not played on LeDee the way he did.”

Now UNLV needs Whaley to do it again.

UNLV drew the No. 4 seed in the MWC tournament, and No. 5 San Diego State is the quarterfinal opponent. That puts Whaley’s post defense in the spotlight again, and this time LeDee and the Aztecs will be ready for him.

At 6-foot-7, Whaley gives up a few inches to LeDee, but he was able to make up for that by using his 260-pound frame to keep LeDee from attaining good position.

“He kind of fell into the guarding LeDee situation just because he’s 260 pounds,” Kruger said. “LeDee is a big dude, and Rob was ready to take on that challenge.”

Look for Whaley to draw the initial assignment on LeDee again today. If he can win that matchup again, UNLV’s chances of advancing go up significantly.

D.J. Thomas: March hero?

A tournament champion usually has to win a close game at some point, and you want veteran shot makers who rise to the occasion. UNLV takes a different approach, as Kruger counts on freshman D.J. Thomas to be the team’s go-to guy.

All season long, Kruger has put the ball in Thomas’ hands with the game on the line. The 6-foot-1 point guard has come through multiple times, especially in the past month, as he took over late in wins against New Mexico and Wyoming.

When the score has been within five points in the final five minutes, Thomas has made 16-of-29 shots (55.2%), with six assists and four turnovers. And despite two misses from the free throw line in a Feb. 17 loss to UNR, Thomas has hit a reliable 22-of-29 (75.8%) from the stripe in close contests.

Thomas added another fantastic finish last week, nailing the go-ahead jumper in the final minute to beat San Diego State.

After that game, senior wing Keylan Boone confirmed that when a game is tight, this is Thomas’ team.

“We let our point guard rock out,” Boone said, “and he saved us once again.”

If past tournament history is any indication, UNLV will need Thomas to win at least one game this week with a heroic shot.

Win the 3-point column

UNLV is not a good 3-point shooting team. The Scarlet and Gray shot just 33.2% from deep this year, which ranks 225th in the nation, and they did it at a low volume, making only 6.8 per game (244th).

It’s tough to win in March if you’re losing the 3-point battle, but the good news for UNLV is that its first two likely opponents are in a similar boat.

San Diego State shot the 3 with lower accuracy (31.6%), though the Aztecs took slightly more and made an average of seven such shots per game. And No. 1 seed Utah State, which would probably be waiting in the semifinal round, made 6.4 per game, albeit at a marginally higher rate (33.6%).

That gives UNLV a puncher’s chance of matching each team’s production from the 3-point line, and that’s important. Perhaps the biggest reason Utah State beat UNLV, 87-86, on Jan. 13 was because the Aggies shot an uncharacteristically hot 10-of-21 from deep, while UNLV went 7-of-24.

As long as the Scarlet and Gray don’t get buried from the arc, they should given themselves a chance to win.

Suffocate the wings

When UNLV was cooking, winning 11 of 12 games down the stretch, it started with defense on the wings. As seniors Luis Rodriguez and Keylan Boone clamped down, the rest of the defense followed, making UNLV a nightmare to score against late in the season.

Rodriguez and Boone are going to have to turn up the intensity even further in the Mountain West tournament, and Boone is ready to go there.

“The urgency is there for both teams,” Boone said of today’s matchup against San Diego State. “Now it’s going to be about who is ... grittier.”

UNLV has the luxury of length at the wings, as Rodriguez (6-foot-6) and Boone (6-foot-8) have the wingspan to smother smaller guards. It also helps on the boards, as Rodriguez and Boone are the team’s two leading rebounders at 6.6 and 6.5 per game, respectively.

Rodriguez was named to the Mountain West All-Defense team and earned two votes for Defensive Player of the Year.

“Having a guy like Lu is big for us,” Kruger said. “We’ve had some games where he’s gotten in foul trouble and we’ve struggled a little bit on the defensive end. He’s a great leader on the defensive front in terms of giving us something that we can count on every single night.”

Avoid the bench

Stability has been hard to come by for UNLV this year, as injuries, eligibility issues and general performance concerns have made it difficult for Kruger to settle on a set rotation. That leaves the Scarlet and Gray in the rare position of heading into the conference tournament without knowing their best lineups.

For comparison, Kruger took different approaches in the final two games of the regular season. Against San Diego State, he shortened the rotation, playing all his starters at least 30 minutes, with Boone logging 40 minutes and Thomas and Whaley playing 37 apiece. Kruger made only 18 substitutions and used 12 different lineups. Given room to breathe, they pulled off the 62-58 win.

Against UNR, Kruger threw everything but the kitchen sink onto the floor — and lost. He made 25 substitutions and used 15 different lineups, with only four starters playing 20 minutes or more. Three reserves played at least 10 minutes; against San Diego State, the only bench player to get 10 minutes was Karl Jones (11 minutes), who outperformed his typical role that night.

Foul trouble contributed to the expanded rotation at UNR, but the lesson should be clear. Keep it tight in the tournament and play the six guys who give UNLV the best chance to win.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.