Charlie Riedel / Associated Press
Iowa State forward Hason Ward (24) beats Houston center Cedric Lath (2) to a rebound during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the championship of the Big 12 Conference tournament, Saturday, March 16, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. Iowa State won 69-41.
Thursday, March 21, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Brackets are due before the start of the NCAA Tournament, but the betting window stays open. Sportsbooks post game lines and reopen futures odds quicker than ever given sports betting’s soaring nationwide popularity.
The latter is why there’s still value in thinking long term. Opportunities abound every step of the tournament.
So let’s go through the bracket one last time and find regional bets to make along the way before ultimately landing on a champion.
The exact prices might change once the games start, but use this as a reference to where they started and as a guide for bets to consider as the field starts to trim.
East Region
No. 1 seed Connecticut got no favors with the opponents slotted around it despite being the defending champions and overall top-ranked team.
The Huskies could have to play another Final Four team from last year, No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic, in the second round. Then, in the Sweet 16, they would most likely face a national-championship game rematch from last year against No. 5 seed San Diego State or a historically strong No. 4 seed in Auburn. The Tigers won the SEC Tournament, just as No. 2 seed Iowa State prevailed in the Big 12 event and No. 3 seed Illinois came out of the Big Ten bracket.
BYU is also a historically strong No. 6 seed.
The Huskies are the most likely team to come out of the gauntlet—they do get the benefit of the final games being played close to home in Brooklyn, N.Y.—but their probability is less than odds that currently have them as short as -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) to reach the Final Four.
It’s a better bet to bundle a couple of the other teams together, and gamble on Connecticut finally falling victim to a tournament off-night.
Bets to win: Iowa State at +450 (i.e. risking $100 to win $450) and Auburn at +475
West Region
This could be the best bracket to tap a long shot—at least in the top half.
No. 1 seed North Carolina is the most vulnerable team on the top line as it’s not explosive enough offensively. The Tar Heels could be at a talent disadvantage, or at least standstill, as soon as a prospective second-round matchup against No. 9 seed Michigan State.
No. 4 seed Alabama spent most of the year with the top-rated offense in the nation. No. 5 seed St. Mary’s would have been an ideal sleeper candidate if healthy but the loss of local product/Liberty High graduate Joshua Jefferson cuts deeply into its chance.
There’s a much clearer divide at the bottom of the region. No. 2 seed Arizona is going to be a big favorite in every possible matchup—perhaps even by double digits.
The Wildcats are well-rounded and should have partisan crowds in nearby Los Angeles for the final two games. They couldn’t have dreamed of a better setup to reach their first Final Four in 23 years.
Bet to win: Arizona at +210
South Region
No. 1 seed Houston arguably wound up with the path that Connecticut deserved as the tournament’s top-ranked team.
The South Region is pillow soft, and the Cougars should be the odds-on favorite to get through it. No. 3 seed Kentucky and No. 4 seed Duke are trendy picks to add to their March Madness legend.
The potential of Houston having to beat both in a span of three days is daunting because of their NBA-level talent. But given their inconsistency all year and defensive flaws, it’s more likely that either the Blue Devils or Wildcats trip up somewhere ahead of time and save the Cougars the headache.
No. 2 seed Marquette is a more complete team than Duke and Kentucky but it’s difficult to have much confidence in the Golden Eagles given a dire injury situation led by star point guard Tyler Kolek’s recent absence. Kolek is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s unlikely he’ll be fully healthy.
Bet to win: Houston at +130
Midwest Region
Any of the top five seeds could come out of this region.
No. 1 seed Purdue has the probable back-to-back national player of the year in center Zach Edey, but potential problems loom in the Sweet 16. No. 4 seed Kansas has its own 7-footer who’s battled Edey over the years in Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson (assuming he’s healthy), while No. 5 seed Gonzaga has a backcourt advantage led by red-hot point guard Ryan Nembhard.
The star power doesn’t end there, as on the bottom part of the bracket, No. 2 seed Tennessee has a national-champion upside with unstoppable wing Dalton Knecht. No. 3 seed Creighton’s 7-foot big man Ryan Kalkbrenner isn’t as offensively elite as Edey or Dickinson but he’s even better defensively.
Tennessee vs. Creighton might be the best potential Sweet 16 matchup, and either team could come out alive.
In a region with so much parity between the top five teams, the best approach is just taking the longest shot to win. There’s rarely a year without one surprise team in the Final Four.
Bet to win: Gonzaga at 12-to-1
Final Four
The Final Four is in Phoenix, which is no small edge to Arizona. Bulk-scoring guard Caleb Love should continue his NCAA Tournament legend—he brought North Carolina to the championship game as a No. 8 seed two years ago—and lead the Wildcats over either Iowa State or Auburn in one of the semifinal games.
In the other, Houston’s physicality would rattle Gonzaga. The Cougars are the best defensive team in the nation, and it’s about time that pays off in the tournament.
Houston would also hold a major coaching advantage in this prospective Final Four with genius tactician Kelvin Sampson on the bench. Houston flummoxed Arizona in a Sweet 16 matchup two years ago, cruising to a 72-60 upset win as a No. 5 seed.
It wouldn’t take an upset this time; Houston would beat Arizona. Houston’s future odds didn’t diminish after the overall bracket was revealed, and given its draw, they should have.
Bet to win: Houston at 6-to-1
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
