NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 31, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Perhaps no college basketball coaches have received more recent criticism for NCAA Tournament underperformance than Purdue’s Matt Painter and Tennessee’s Rick Barnes.

One of the two gets to leave behind the disappointment this afternoon and bask in an advance to the Final Four. The Midwest Region played out closest to form of any bracket in this year’s tournament, producing a final of No. 1 seed Purdue vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee starting at 11:20 a.m. today at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit.

The 53-year-old Painter has never reached a Final Four despite a decorated 21-year college basketball coaching career. Twenty-one years is also appropriately how much time has passed since the 69-year-old Barnes made his first and only appearance on the sport’s biggest stage while coaching at Texas.

New faces will play a big part in next weekend’s national semifinals in Glendale, Ariz., either way. In the final Elite Eight game of the year, neither NC State’s Kevin Keatts nor Duke’s John Scheyer have ever made it this far in their coaching careers.

Coaching is a big factor for bettors to consider this late into the tournament when the market is so hardened into shape. One of the four coaches today is bound to raise his reputation over the next week with a national championship berth.

Read below for my handicaps on both of today’s Elite Eight games. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for picking every tournament game currently stands at 34-26-2 (11-12-1 on plays, 12-3 on leans and 11-11-1 on guesses).

No. 4 seed Duke -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed North Carolina State, over/under: 143. NC State’s eight-game win streak technically began two contests earlier, but it was really the Wolfpack’s ACC Tournament quarterfinal win over Duke that announced it was a threat. The Wolfpack threw some new looks at the Blue Devils, outshot them and escaped with a 74-69 victory as 11-point underdogs. Yes, 11-point underdogs. That makes this line as large of an adjustment as you’ll ever see between two healthy teams playing each other at neutral sites twice in a span of less than three weeks. It might be too much. The Wolfpack is certainly playing much better now, but it also took an overtime victory to get past No. 14 seed Oakland as 6-point favorites two rounds ago. This is the same spread Duke commanded on N.C. State’s home floor less than a month ago ahead of a 79-64 victory that made the former look significantly better than the latter. And the Blue Devils may still be that much better. Lean: Duke -6.5.

No. 1 seed Purdue -3 vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee, over/under: 175.5. Here’s yet another rematch from earlier in the season, but with a spread that doesn’t stray from the one sports books posted for a semifinal in the Maui Invitational in November. Purdue was also a 3-point favorite against Tennessee in that game before winning 71-67. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the nation but guarding Zach Edey proved a problem as the 7-footer scored 23 points while making seven of his 10 field-goal attempts. Denying entry passes will be Tennessee’s gameplan again, but the Boilermakers have only gotten better at feeding their superstar in the post without fault. One of these coaches is bound to get castigated for falling short again, but the truth is, they’ve both done strong work with their respective teams this year. There’s not an advantage on the sideline either way, so it comes down to the players. With apologies to Tennessee’s always-electric Dalton Knecht, Purdue has the player most likely to take over the game in Edey. I didn’t expect to take all favorites in the Elite Eight — and think that’s a first in the 13-year history of this series — but a few teams have simply separated themselves from the pack in this year’s tournament. Lean: Purdue -3.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or