The best futures bet to make in every NFL division this season

To get a sense of the NFL landscape to start the season, let’s handicap each and every division using locally available betting odds.

Listed odds in every division come from Circa Sports, while the pick for each is the best price available on the chosen side anywhere in Las Vegas with the sportsbook noted.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills -185 (i.e. risking $185 to win $100), Miami Dolphins +195 (i.e. risking $100 to win $195), New York Jets +210, New England Patriots +1400

The Jets are the favorites at many other sportsbooks, which feels like quite a rosy outlook for a team with a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles injury—even if it is four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins have fielded the best offense in the NFL collectively over the last two years. If the defense improves marginally this year, watch out. 

Pick: Dolphins at +225 (BetMGM)

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens +155, Cincinnati Bengals +160, Cleveland Browns +475, Pittsburgh Steelers +710

The Steelers have an aging roster and the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Browns have a injury-ravaged roster and a big question at quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The Bengals have a mediocre-at-best defense and quietly-injury-prone quarterback in Joe Burrow. How are the Ravens, which had one of the best regular seasons in NFL history last year, not odds-on favorites?

Pick: Ravens at +155 (Circa)

AFC South: Houston Texans -108, Jacksonville Jaguars +280, Indianapolis Colts +380, Tennessee Titans +1100

The souped-up Texans will be formidable, but the Jaguars were the NFL’s biggest divisional favorite at this time a year ago and came a Week 18 upset loss to the Titans away from paying it off. They haven’t fallen off as precipitously as the odds indicate. Houston could be vulnerable if quarterback C.J. Stroud has any semblance of a sophomore slump or if prized trade-acquired receiver Stefon Diggs is as past-his-prime as he looked at parts of last season.

Pick: Jaguars at +300 (STN Sports)

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs -305, Los Angeles Chargers +450, Las Vegas Raiders +925, Denver Broncos +2200

It may seem expensive, but the Chiefs had a disastrous regular season a year ago and still won the division with ease. They should be better this year, especially on offense. The Chargers, Raiders and Broncos are all in transitional seasons—the former two with new full-time coaches (Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce, respectively) and the last with a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix).

Pick: Chiefs at -260 (Caesars/William Hill)

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles -140, Dallas Cowboys +187, Washington Commanders +1200, New York Giants +1400

The Cowboys were better than the Eagles last year by any and every metric, so it’s downright illogical for them to be this big of an underdog this year. Yes, no team has repeated in the NFC East in 20 years but that’s more a random trend than a predictive signal. Dallas’ high-profile playoff failures are making everyone forget how great of a regular-season team it’s been with three straight 12-win seasons.

Pick: Cowboys at +200 (Wynn)

NFC North: Detroit Lions +129, Green Bay Packers +205, Chicago Bears +400, Minnesota Vikings +800

Truth be told, there’s not a bet here. This is the most efficiently priced divisional market. The Lions probably win it with a breezy schedule and an entering-their-prime core, though the Packers and Bears could unseat them if everything goes right. The Vikings are no slouch either with one of the league’s best offensive minds at coach (Kevin O’Connell) and top weapons at wide receiver (Justin Jefferson). The longest price implies only a 6% chance the Vikings can pull off a shocker, and that’s too short.

Pick: Vikings at +1425 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons -145, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +305, New Orleans Saints +475, Carolina Panthers +1500

The Saints may not have won the NFC South last year, but they were by far the best team with a scoring margin 52 points superior to the eventual champion Buccaneers. New Orleans is due some positive regression this year. Every team in this division is flawed and should be no factor in the playoffs, but the Saints are the most proven. 

Pick: Saints at +475 (Circa)

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers -200, Los Angeles Rams +300, Seattle Seahawks +785, Arizona Cardinals +1325

Don’t fall for the Super Bowl runner-up hangover narrative or the impassioned cases for the Rams or Seahawks being sleepers. The 49ers are still a juggernaut with star power at virtually every position. This is their last year to make a run with quarterback Brock Purdy still on a minimum contract before he’s extension-eligible and they’re crunched up against the salary cap. San Francisco will make the most of it.

Pick: 49ers at -190 (Caesars/William Hill)