How UNLV football has path into new 12-team College Playoff

When the NCAA voted in November of 2022 to expand the College Football Playoffs from a four-team bracket to a 12-team field starting with the 2024 season, the news may have flown under the radar for UNLV fans. And that’s understandable; after decades of losing, most probably never expected the program to be relevant in those types of conversations.

A national championship tournament that includes the Scarlet and Gray? On what planet?

It could be unfolding now, right here on planet Earth. Since the announcement of the expanded bracket, UNLV hired head coach Barry Odom, who immediately led the team to a 9-5 record in his first year, including a spot in the Mountain West title game. Riding that momentum, UNLV entered the 2024 campaign as a dark-horse playoff contender, and the team’s impressive 2-0 start has some prognosticators believing the playoffs are a real possibility.

And if UNLV wins at Kansas on Friday (4 p.m., ESPN), notching a second road win over a Big 12 opponent? Expect the playoff talk to really heat up.

In the meantime, it’s safe to say UNLV fans should start paying attention to the CFP system. Here’s how it works:

Format change

For the past 10 years, four teams have been selected to compete in the playoffs. With five power conferences expecting bids, that led to some conference champions getting squeezed out — and calls to expand the bracket.

After some years of hemming and hawing and negotiating with bowl games, the NCAA approved the new 12-team format in late 2022. All five power-conference champions will receive an automatic bid, and six at-large berths will go to the next six highest-ranked teams. That brings the field to 11 teams.

That 12^th spot is where things get interesting for UNLV. The final berth is earmarked for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, meaning a playoff team will come from either the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference or Sun Belt Conference.

So, if UNLV wins the MWC title game — remember, Odom had his squad one win away from doing it last season — they’d be one of only five teams in consideration for the final playoff spot. High stakes, indeed.

Group battle

With five conferences battling for one playoff spot, it’s going to be an all-out competition that spans the entire season, and every game matters. The best team from the strongest conference will ostensibly get the nod.

Last year, the playoff spot would have gone to Liberty, which went 13-0 and won the Conference USA title. In the final CFP rankings, the Flames were No. 23 overall, just ahead of AAC champion SMU.

The good news for UNLV is that rankings metrics have looked favorably on the Mountain West in recent years. General consensus holds the MWC as the toughest Group of 5 league, and early results this season bear that out. The champion should finish with an impressive résumé.

The playoff format has prompted one change: UNLV fans should be rooting for all other Mountain West teams, especially in non-conference play. That will allow UNLV to play more quality opponents — a common dynamic in college basketball that is now making its way over to the gridiron.

“You want the league to have success. The stronger the league is, the better the champion will be seen nationally,” Odom said. “At the end of the year, the Mountain West Conference is one that will be respected and should absolutely have a spot in that 12-team playoff.”

The decision makers

The at-large participants and the overall seeding will be determined by the same committee that populated the four-team field for the past decade. The group is made up of 13 former coaches, athletic directors and college football administrators who meet weekly to dial in the rankings.

Like the NCAA Tournament, the committee is not beholden to any outside rankings, metrics or statistics. The process basically boils down to the eye test, as evidenced by the exclusion of undefeated Atlantic Coast Conference champion Florida State in 2023. It’s murky, and precedent is not always followed; what worked to get a team into the field a year ago may not punch a ticket the following year.

That puts a premium on statement wins and memorable moments. If UNLV has a chance to get the attention of the committee by scoring a big upset or a dominant blowout, it best take advantage.

When does it get real?

One intriguing aspect of the football playoffs, and one that separates it from basketball’s Selection Sunday, is that the rankings are revealed weekly, so the public can see the field evolve as teams win their way in (or lose their way out).

This year, the first rankings will be made public on Nov. 5. UNLV will have played eight games by then, and an 8-0 record would make the Scarlet and Gray a near shoe-in for inclusion in the first bracket.

UNLV is currently ranked an unofficial No. 34 in the Coaches Top 25 poll, behind only three Group of 5 teams (No. 25 Memphis, No. 30 Northern Illinois and No. 33 Boise State). And UNLV will play three quality opponents between now and the first ranking, taking on No. 36 Kansas (Friday), No. 28 Syracuse (Oct. 4). And No. 33 Boise State (Oct. 25).  

Open policy

Some teams like to focus on that old cliché of one game at a time, but this UNLV squad has been talking openly about their playoff goals throughout the offseason.

And why wouldn’t they? They made it to the MWC title game last year; a similar path this season would put them on the precipice of the 12-team field.

Senior linebacker Jackson Woodard, a team captain, said the team is embracing its playoff hopes.

“The standard is a championship,” Woodard said. “I think that bar has risen. The standard has risen. We’re ready to go. We’re ready to attack.”

Senior receiver Ricky White went a step further, as the All-American predicted UNLV will indeed be the twelfth team.

“We’ll be there. That’s all I’m going to say.”

How’s it looking now?

After two whole weeks of football, Scarlet and Gray have to like their chances. The season-opening win at Houston got the attention of the college football world, and following that up with a 72-point demolition of Utah Tech kept the momentum rolling.

Northern Illinois catapulted into the spotlight by knocking off No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday, and some bracketologists now have the Huskies penciled in as the 12-seed. But plenty of projections still have UNLV in the driver’s seat for now, and it looks like the Scarlet and Gray will play a more difficult schedule the rest of the way, with more opportunities to add quality wins.

The competition will be stiff, and Odom believes the strength of the Mountain West conference will win out in the end — as long as UNLV keeps winning.

“I think the Mountain West, as the course of the season goes on, will be a powerful conference that will make noise on the national stage,” Odom said. “We’ve got a grueling schedule. This was just a start.”

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.