With veteran quarterback in for Panthers, Raiders could be facing a trap game

The easiest game on the Raiders’ schedule got a little more difficult earlier this week.

From the moment the NFL released the schedule in May, Las Vegas’ home opener against Carolina shaped up as the game where it had the biggest advantage. Sportsbooks opened Las Vegas a 5.5-point favorite — four points more than the Raiders were favored in any of their other 15 games. That spread swelled all the way to -7.5 last Sunday after the Raiders shocked the Baltimore Ravens 26-23 on the road, combined with the Panthers losing 26-3 to the LA Chargers for their 17th loss in their last 19 games. It came back down to its original 5.5-point price once Carolina announced it was benching quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, for veteran Andy Dalton.

Young has looked completely lost dating back to last season, and the widespread expectation is that the 36-year-old Dalton can make the Panthers more competitive. Dalton, the longtime Cincinnati Bengals starter, is 86-83-2 as a starter in his NFL career. Las Vegas counterpart Gardner Minshew’s record sits at 23-28.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ wide receiver Davante Adams vs. Panthers’ pass defense

Don’t take Adams off the list of best receivers in the NFL just yet. The 11th-year veteran and perennial Pro Bowler showed any concerns about a fall-off were unfounded with nine catches for 110 yards including the late game-tying touchdown last week. And that came against one of the NFL’s most decorated secondaries as Baltimore had the No. 1 pass defense last season by multiple metrics with largely the same personnel. Carolina is nowhere close to as effective in the defensive backfield and sits near the bottom of the league in most rankings. Over the last two seasons, they’re collectively ranked No. 22 in the league in defending opposing No. 1 receivers per the DVOA ratings. Neither No. 1 cornerback Jaycee Horn nor No. 2 cornerback Mike Jackson are on Adams’ level. Carolina may try to double-team Adams with help over the top throughout the game, but it’s difficult to do that every snap with the Raiders having other playmaking pass-catchers including rookie tight end Brock Bowers and No. 2 receiver Jakobi Meyers. Adams looks set up for his second straight big game. 

Problematic matchup: Panthers’ offensive element of surprise vs. Raiders’ defense

Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham talked two weeks ago about how a team’s first game brings a unique anxiety to defensive coaches because it’s impossible to know exactly what an opponent is going to run on offense. This year, Graham gets to deal with that uncertainty twice in three weeks. Carolina first-year coach and playcaller Dave Canales is likely to change his team’s offense with Dalton stepping in for Young. Canales talked the whole offseason about tailoring the Panthers’ plan of attack to fit with Young’s strengths. Now he doesn’t have to do that anymore. Dalton brings a marked change as more of a pocket passer with prototypical NFL size at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds and a much bigger arm. Canales rose to prominence in the NFL by bringing the most out of different-profiled quarterbacks including most recently Geno Smith with the Seahawks and Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers. Dalton is past his traditional prime, but don’t count Canales out from coaxing something out of him if the coach’s ability is as strong as his reputation. The Raiders have the Panthers outmanned at most, if not all, positions but the latter could prove trickier.

Gamebreaker: Wide receiver Tre Tucker

Las Vegas came out of training camp extremely confident two young pass-catchers were ready to be focal points of its offense — rookie tight end Brock Bowers and second-year slot speedster Tre Tucker. Bowers had his first moment to shine with nine catches for 98 yards to help spur the comeback victory against the Ravens. Could it be Turner’s turn a week later? The former third-round pick out of the University of Cincinnati should get some opportunities. He’s the Raiders’ primary downfield threat, and that’s an area where the Panthers have struggled dating back to last season. Carolina rated 25th in the league against deep passes by DVOA last year, a standing that might be even worse than it sounds considering it didn’t face all that many deep passes. The Panthers have regularly gotten blown out so badly — their scoring margin of -240 dating back to last season is the worst in the NFL by 54 points — that teams have had little reason to attack vertically after the start of games. The Raiders have been harping on starting fast all season, and there would be no more emphatic way to do so today than letting Tucker try to get behind the Panthers’ secondary one of their first couple drives.

Big Number: 15

Bowers has 15 catches for 156 yards through two games, both NFL records for rookie tight ends. The somewhat pertinent question becomes whether the first-round pick out of the University of Georgia should even be classified as a tight end. The Raiders, as promised, are using him in many more ways than they would a traditional tight end — most notably as a slot receiver. But Bowers’ initial productivity is historic even if casted into the wider pool of players. No Raiders’ rookie has ever put up those receiving numbers in their first two games. Only seven other receivers in NFL history have 15 catches in their first two games. There should be no slowing down now as Bowers looks like the Raiders’ second option on offense after Adams. Bowers’ 15 catches have come on 17 targets, behind only Adams’ 18 for the team-high.

Best Bet (2-0): Brock Bowers over 44.5 receiving yards

This section is often about responding to an overreaction and betting the other way — i.e. buying a dip or selling a spike. But this is one market that has under-reacted to what the Raiders have shown early in the season. Bowers’ receiving-yard total in each of the first two weeks was over/under 33.5, which he easily eclipsed. The way the Raiders are using him and the success he’s finding should be enough to push his yardage total into the 50s — or at least 49.5. That’s going to happen sooner rather than later if he keeps on his current pace. Then will come the time to bet under. For now, take advantage of a low asking price on a player that will be a central force on the Raiders’ offense for years to come.