Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo tied at 44% in new Nevada gubernatorial poll

A new poll released Wednesday by a Democratic organization shows the Nevada governor’s race is deadlocked between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, even as Lombardo and his allies have outspent Ford’s side by a wide margin heading into the Nov. 3 general election.

The survey, conducted July 15-16 by Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association, found Ford and Lombardo each drawing 44% support among 558 likely general election voters, with 12% undecided.

The group, in a memo accompanying the poll’s release, stated Lombardo and his allies have spent more than $27 million against Ford without opening a meaningful lead. The memo cited ad-tracking data showing Lombardo and Republican-aligned groups outspent Democratic-aligned entities by more than 168-to-1 on advertising since December — more than $13 million to roughly $77,000. With Ford’s campaign not yet running significant paid advertising, the association stated, he has room to grow.

“This polling is just the latest data that makes clear Joe Lombardo is the most vulnerable incumbent governor up for reelection this November,” the group's Political Director Chris Sloan wrote in the memo.

The poll also found President Donald Trump unpopular in Nevada, with 54% of respondents disapproving of his job performance and 43% approving. Fifty-three percent of voters said Lombardo does not stand up to Trump enough, while 30% said he stands up to the president about the right amount and 5% said he does so too much.

Lombardo’s favorability stood at 39% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Ford’s favorability was 28% favorable and 33% unfavorable, with a notably high 39% of respondents unsure — a figure the governors association characterized as an opportunity for growth.

On the question of Nevada’s direction, 55% of respondents said things have gotten off on the wrong track, compared with 30% who said the state is headed in the right direction.

The poll tested a contrast central to Ford’s campaign message: 47% of voters agreed with Ford that Lombardo has not done enough to help Nevadans struggling with high costs and unemployment linked to Trump’s agenda, while 39% agreed with Lombardo’s position that global forces are responsible for Nevada’s economic conditions.

The poll’s release coincided with renewed scrutiny of Lombardo’s relationship with Trump. The Nevada Independent reported Monday that it had obtained audio of the governor speaking at a closed-door event for veterans on July 2, in which he likened Trump to his “commanding officer” and said the relationship was necessary to prevent more aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity in Las Vegas.

Lombardo won the 2022 gubernatorial election by about 1.5 percentage points over then-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, flipping the seat from blue to red, and he has since emerged as a top target for Democrats. Ford, who won the Democratic primary in June, heads to a Nov. 3 general election while in his second term as attorney general.

The Public Policy Polling poll carries a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for a sample of 558 respondents. PPP conducted the survey by a mix of landline and text; 78% of respondents were reached by text. The poll was commissioned by the DGA, a partisan organization that supports Democratic gubernatorial candidates.