College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 11

John Bazemore / Associated Press

Alabama running back Derrick Henry (2) falls into the end zone for a touchdown as LSU safety Jalen Mills (28) makes the hit.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 | noon

For the first time this year, Ohio State has company.

The Buckeyes are no longer alone as the favorite to repeat their championship in college football playoff. Alabama and Ohio State are officially co-favorites at odds of 5-to-2 atop the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook futures board.

The Crimson Tide dropped from 6-to-1 a week ago with their 30-16 victory over LSU as closing 7.5-point favorites. No one had evened the Buckeyes since the Superbook released its numbers the day after last year’s national championship game.

Ohio State sat at 9-to-2 back then, and its odds steadily went down. Alabama, which opened at 8-to-1, followed the same trajectory until a week 3 loss to Ole Miss, when the Crimson Tide catapulted to 20-to-1.

Even though Clemson is currently ranked ahead of both Alabama and Ohio State, the Tigers trail them in championship odds at 4-to-1. That doesn’t necessarily speak to their quality, just where the betting action comes in the futures.

Some oddsmakers would slightly favor Clemson over Ohio State or Alabama on the point spread, while others would go the other way. Wherever the line settled, none of the three would be expected to give more than a field goal to each other.

But this could all prove meaningless with an upset or two over the next month. There are still three full regular-season weekends to go along with conference championships.

Talking Points is here until the bitter end, analyzing and picking the 10 biggest games of the week. It’s been a successful year as last week’s 7-3 record brings the season total to 58-42-2.

Check below for week 11 of college football by the odds.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ohio State minus-17 at Illinois, over/under: 55.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

The two tightest point-spreads awaiting the defending national champions in Big Ten play were always going to come at the tail end of the regular season.

It was more unexpected that Illinois would emerge to backload Ohio State’s schedule with its three toughest conference games in a row. Before getting to Michigan State, where it’s a current 12.5-point favorite, and Michigan, a current 5.5-point favorite, Ohio State lays the fewest points it has to Illinois in the last four years.

The two schools have undergone a role reversal at the betting window this season. Ohio State, the most profitable team in the Big Ten over the last 10 years, dropped to 3-6 against the spread with last week’s unremarkable 28-14 win over Minnesota as 24-point favorites. Illinois, the second-worst bet over the last decade in the conference, improved to 5-4 versus the number with a 48-14 pounding of Purdue as 3.5-point favorites.

The Illini were stirred by the return of senior running back Josh Ferguson, who had 133 yards on 12 carries. But the Buckeyes are stingy against the run, giving up only 3.5 yards per carry behind sophomore Raekwon McMillan and senior Joshua Perry shutting down the middle at linebacker.

They’re the team getting a star back Saturday as quarterback J.T. Barrett comes back from his one-game suspension for driving while impaired.

Pick: Illinois plus-17 Nice spot for the Illini to keep it close.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

North Carolina State plus-10 at Florida State, over/under: 53.5; 9:30 a.m. on ESPN3

Spurned Clemson opponents from the last two weeks match up in what amounts to an ACC Atlantic division consolation game.

The Seminoles slid in the cover at Clemson, losing 23-13 as 12.5-point underdogs, last week. North Carolina State didn’t cash two weeks ago in a 56-41 loss as 13-point underdogs despite having the ball at the goal line at the end of regulation.

With Clemson fielding one of the best defensive front sevens in college football, it’s no surprise neither of these teams came that close to the upset. The Seminoles and the Wolfpack both employ rush-first attacks.

In fact, this is a matchup between two of the three most efficient rushing offenses in the nation by Football Outsiders’ S&P metric. Florida State sophomore Dalvin Cook is second in the nation among qualified backs in averaging 8.3 yards per carry.

North Carolina State junior Matthew Dayes is just out of the top 30 with 6.2 yards per attempt. But the reason the Wolfpack rate out as stronger on the ground than the Seminoles is Dayes being next to senior quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who’s also above 6 yards per carry.

No official announcement has come down on whether Sean Maguire or Everett Golson will start for Florida State. Cook brings a new set of problems by himself but for the year North Carolina State has fielded the better rush defense, giving up 3.6 yards per attempt to Florida State’s 4.

Pick: North Carolina State plus-10 Number is inflated by a few points.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Alabama minus-8 at Mississippi State, over/under: 51.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Alabama’s asking price gradually grew all of last week ahead of the showdown with LSU before going off of the board at minus-7.5.

The same type of movement is repeating this week with the Crimson Tide taking to the road to face the Bulldogs. Alabama opened minus-6, but now sits at minus-8 in shops across town.

In many ways, this could be a tougher game for the Crimson Tide. Mississippi State has improved all year while breaking underclassmen into prominent roles to now win four in a row including three straight covers of more than two touchdowns.

The Bulldogs’ only against the spread loss at home came when Troy kicked a field goal with 27 seconds left to cover plus-31 in a 45-17 loss. But two of the Crimson Tide’s best performances, a 38-10 win at Georgia as a 1.5-point underdog and a 41-23 victory against Texas A&M as a 5.5-point favorite, have come away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The formula won’t be much of a secret in Starkville, Miss., as surging Heisman Trophy contender Derrick Henry — who has 1,254 yards and 17 touchdowns on the year — should plow through a Bulldogs defense allowing a middling 4.1 yards per rush.

Mississippi State runs the type of spread, attack-the-edges offense that has given Alabama trouble in the past, though. Senior quarterback Dak Prescott has the Bulldogs up to No. 11 in passing offense per S&P with trusty junior receivers De’Runnya Wilson and Fred Ross.

Pick: Mississippi State plus-8 Enamored with how the Bulldogs have looked over the last month.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Miami plus-13 at North Carolina, over/under: 67; 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU

The two preseason betting favorites to win the ACC Coastal division — Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech — sit at the bottom of the standings to leave the third choice with a chance to clinch.

That third choice was North Carolina, which can put itself in the ACC championship if a win over Miami is paired with a Duke victory over Pittsburgh Saturday. The Tar Heels got money in the summer on their over 7.5 wins, which they eclipsed with last week’s 66-31 demolition of Duke as 7-point favorites, but no one expected them to be this explosive.

They’re sitting second in the nation, behind only Baylor, at gaining 7.6 yards per play. Senior quarterback Marquise Williams has made the most of all the experience surrounding him as four receivers — Bug Howard, Quinshad Davis, Ryan Switzer and Mack Hollins — have at least 30 catches and two touchdowns.

Despite all the discord at Miami, the Hurricanes can go over their win total with a seventh victory Saturday afternoon in Chapel Hill, N.C. They’ve won both games under interim coach Larry Scott, though failed to cover in a 27-21 victory over Virginia as 6.5-point favorites last week.

Miami sits behind only Clemson and North Carolina in passing efficiency, per S&P, in the ACC with sophomore quarterback Brad Kaaya throwing for 8.4 yards per attempt.

Pick: Miami plus-13 Don’t believe in this North Carolina team enough yet to lay two touchdowns against a decent opponent.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Memphis plus-7 at Houston, over/under: 71; 4 p.m. on ESPN2

The biggest game in American Athletic Conference history was nearly ruined last week.

Memphis did its part in downgrading the trip to Houston, falling to Navy 45-20 as 10-point favorites. Houston fended off Cincinnati despite getting outgained by more than 150 yards in a 33-30 victory as 9-point favorites to restore this weekend’s matchup with most of its prestige.

It’s the first time ranked teams have squared off in a conference game, and the winner will be in stronger position to snag a New Year’s Six bowl assignment.

There’s a clear divide in offensive philosophies as Houston relies primarily on the ground attack with junior quarterback Greg Ward and senior running back Kenneth Farrow combining for nearly 1,800 rushing yards. Memphis goes through the air as senior quarterback Paxton Lynch is one of eight players in the nation with more than 3,000 passing yards.

Public bettors are going against their usual inclination to back the aerial team. Memphis opened as a 4.5-point underdog, before the money came swarming in on Houston.

The Cougars, at 6-3 against the spread, have been the more profitable bet this season. Memphis is only 4-4-1 versus the number with two straight point-spread losses.

Pick: Memphis plus-7 Houston secondary gave up more than 500 yards to Gunner Kiel last week, so Lynch should be salivating.
Thomas Graning / AP

Arkansas plus-7.5 at LSU, over/under: 54; 4:15 p.m. on ESPN

Based on how these teams have performed versus the number in the SEC this season, bettors shouldn’t be in a hurry to play against either of them.

The Razorbacks and Tigers are a combined 8-2 against the spread in conference games this season. Arkansas’ only non-cover was a bad beat, a 28-21 overtime loss to Texas A&M as 6-point underdogs.

LSU was perfect at the betting window before last week’s 30-16 setback at Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs. The Crimson Tide held the Tigers to 4 yards per play and less than 200 total yards.

The Razorbacks haven’t come close to doing that against any team this season as they’ve given up an SEC-worst 6 yards per play. They’ve played awfully well on offense, though, with quarterback Brandon Allen and running back Alex Collins providing balance en route to ranking an SEC-high eighth in efficiency by S&P.

Maybe that’s why they’re the side the betting market is backing in a matchup between two reliable bets. LSU posted as a 9.5-point favorite before immediately getting bet down.

The Razorbacks should play with fire needing one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The Tigers players are citing great motivation of their own to bounce back from an underwhelming performance against the Crimson Tide.

Pick: LSU minus-7.5 See, I can take a favorite too.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oregon plus-9.5 at Stanford, over/under: 69.5; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

The halcyon days of bettors making Oregon one of the most popular selections on the board every week have never felt further away.

Sports books were forced to routinely adjust and root against the Ducks over the last several years with bettors smitten by high-powered offenses directed by the likes of Marcus Mariota and Darron Thomas. The support has dried up ever since a 62-20 loss to Utah as 10-point favorites earlier this year.

Now it’s as much of a weekly ritual to go against the Vernon Adams-led Ducks, which happened again going into their biggest game of the season. Stanford opened as an 8-point favorite but has gotten boosted up to as high as 10.

Oregon has punished bettors for fading it since the Utah loss, quietly going 4-1 straight-up and against the spread. The only loss was to Washington State — 45-38 as 16-point favorites — which Stanford can commiserate.

The Cardinal’s only point-spread loss since an inexplicable week 1 defeat at Northwestern was a 30-28 escape against Washington State as a 10-point favorite. It could be a showcase game for Heisman hopeful and Stanford sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who’s currently 20-to-1 to win college football’s biggest award, with Oregon allowing 4.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Oregon racked up a school-record 777 yards in a 44-28 victory over California as 3.5-point favorites last week with Adams throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns. Stanford’s secondary remains somewhat suspect in ranking No. 52 against the pass by S&P.

Pick: Stanford minus-9.5 Grabbing the value before the line jumps to 10 everywhere.
Rod Aydelotte / AP

Oklahoma plus-3 at Baylor, over/under: 76.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

Whether Baylor can cover Saturday night will likely come down to how it deals with the initial shock of lining up against an opponent that’s not overmatched.

The average spread on a Bears game this season has been 30 points, and they haven’t given less than 17 while going 4-3 against the spread. The Sooners are far more battle-tested with three games that went off the board with a spread of less than a touchdown, and they covered and won in all of them.

They’ve covered four straight while sneaking up to Baylor’s stratospheric levels of offensive efficiency. The betting market has taken notice and fired on Oklahoma in excess, driving down the opening number of minus-4.5 to 2.5 at some books.

Some of the action is a play-against Baylor freshman quarterback Jared Stidham, who has taken over for the injured Seth Russell. But Baylor has never seen a significant production drop-off at quarterback in coach Art Briles’ tenure no matter who comes in.

Stidham also has major luxuries in junior receiver Corey Coleman, who leads the nation with 20 touchdown receptions, and junior running back Shock Linwood, rushing for just short of 8 yards per carry.

Oklahoma’s 8.3 yards per play over the last three weeks actually eclipses Baylor’s 7, though. Junior Baker Mayfield has the highest passer efficiency among active quarterbacks — Russell still sits first overall — with his own superstars at wide receiver in senior Sterling Sherpard and running back in sophomore Samaje Perine.

The undeniable Oklahoma edge driving the action, however, comes on defense where it ranks third in the nation in giving up 4.1 yards per play.

Pick: Under 76.5 points The line is in the right place, so as it hard as it may be, take a deep breath and get value on an inflated total.
Jay LaPrete / Associated Press

Minnesota plus-9 at Iowa, over/under: 45.5; 5 p.m. on Big Ten Network

Iowa fans must slow their complaints over disrespect from the College Football Playoff committee after coming in at No. 5 in the latest rankings.

They can still rail against bookmakers, whom would have at least 15 teams favored over the undefeated Hawkeyes. Las Vegas’ skepticism over Iowa is illustrated through a simple line comparison to Minnesota’s last two games.

Twice-beaten Michigan gave the Golden Gophers four more points on the opening spread two weeks ago in a 29-26 escape. Fellow undefeated Ohio State laid 24 points last week in a 28-14 win at home against Minnesota.

The Gophers finish off their three-week run against Big Ten contenders with their best chance to win, according to odds. They have improved drastically, especially on defense where opponents have only gained 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

Minnesota lost top cornerback Jalen Myrick to a season-ending rib injury last week, though, to potentially open up the passing lanes for Iowa junior quarterback C.J. Beathard.

But Iowa’s unforeseen breakthrough season has really come by virtue of the defense where linebackers Josey Jewell and Cole Fisher are combining for more than 25 percent of the team’s tackles. Iowa is fifth in the nation with a plus-11 turnover margin while going 4-0 in games decided by single digits, positive figures that tend to regress.

They’re part of the reason why, from an odds perspective, a No. 5 ranking is too high.

Pick: Iowa minus-9 Minnesota has got to be worn down and ripe for the taking after a most-challenging stretch.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Washington State plus-10 at UCLA, over/under: 65.5; 7:45 p.m. on ESPN

Records will fall in week 10’s final game to kickoff.

Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk, who has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, needs two more to break a school record for touchdown passes in a season. If he finds favorite target Gabe Marks three times, the junior receiver will set the school record for career receptions.

The standing most bettors in Las Vegas want to see crumble is Washington State’s current nation-long six-game winning streak against the spread. Early action has pushed UCLA up to as high as a 10.5-point favorite after opening as low as minus-7.5 despite Washington State being tied with Stanford as the Pac-12’s most profitable team at 7-2 against the spread.

The Bruins are equipped to attack the Cougars’ weakness for rush defense, where they’re giving up 5.1 yards per carry to rank 105th in the nation. Junior Paul Perkins leads a rushing attack that rates 19th in the nation in gaining 5.1 yards per carry.

UCLA put on its best performance of the year in a 41-0 blowout victory at Oregon State as 16-point favorites last week. The win showcased the improvement of a defense that’s been ravaged by injuries but still standing in the top 30 in giving up 4.8 yards per play.

The Bruins sit at an uneven 4-5 against the spread, and haven’t beaten the number in back-to-back games yet this season.

Pick: UCLA minus-10 Back aboard the Bruins’ hype train.