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College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 6

Gerald Herbert / AP

LSU running back Leonard Fournette (7) runs past Auburn defensive back Blake Countess (24) on a touchdown run Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Baton Rouge, La.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 | noon

Leonard Fournette has made history this week no matter what happens in his team’s game Saturday afternoon.

The ubiquitous LSU running back became Las Vegas’ first Heisman Trophy favorite in more than 20 years. The Nevada Gaming Control Board hasn’t allowed wagering on any voted awards in decades, but recently loosened its restrictions.

The state now allows casinos to propose events for betting, which the board can then decide to approve or deny. Station Casinos, behind the direction of veteran bookmaker Art Manteris, took the initiative with Heisman odds and got clearance to post them earlier this week.

The sophomore Fournette is the clear favorite at a price of 8-to-5. The players close behind are Georgia running back Nick Chubb and TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin at 7-to-1 followed by Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at 8-to-1.

Fournette, who leads the nation with 864 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, gets a chance to pad his lead Saturday when the Tigers play the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game was the rare instance where the market’s exact value of home field was revealed.

South Carolina was a 12.5-point home underdog before flooding caused the contest to move to Tiger Stadium. A touchdown swing came along with the venue change, ending up with LSU laying 19.5 points.

LSU versus South Carolina was one of the last cuts from our college football by the odds series, which analyzes and picks the 10 biggest games weekly. A 7-3 against-the-spread record last week leaves the overall mark at 32-19-1, which is well above the goal of anything above 50 percent given the toughness of forcing a pick on every game.

Check below for week 6 of college football by the odds.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia Tech plus-7 at Clemson, over/under: 54.5; 12:30 on ABC

Clemson provided bettors a lesson in the art of line-shopping and placing wagers early in last week’s 24-22 escape over Notre Dame.

Anyone who took Clemson in the days before the game — Talking Points included — cashed with it as a pick’em or 1-point favorite. The opposite camp that waited until right before kickoff was victimized by the Tigers’ fourth-quarter collapse and lost minus-3 wagers. Those somewhere in the middle largely pushed with Clemson minus-2.

Just having a chance at the end of the game would have sounded appealing to Georgia Tech bettors over the last three weeks. The Yellow Jackets came into the season looking to nurture the nation’s longest against the spread winning streak, which extended to nine games, but now is looking to avoid a negative stretch.

Georgia Tech has lost three straight, and a fourth would bring the program’s longest losing streak since 1996. Georgia Tech went off as the favorite in the last three losses — to North Carolina, Duke and Notre Dame — making it an underdog for the first time this season Saturday.

The odds make sense given Clemson ranks first in the nation against the run by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings with players like Shaq Lawson and Ben Boulware bound to get All-American consideration. Georgia Tech’s triple option is a different beast, however, even with heralded quarterback Justin Thomas being held to less than four yards per carry on the season.

Pick: Clemson minus-7 Bookmakers have started to adjust the numbers on these two programs but not fast enough.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia minus-2.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 59.5; 12:30 on CBS

Georgia’s getting drubbed 38-10 as 1.5-point favorites against Alabama last week was more damaging than Tennessee blowing a two-touchdown lead for the second time in two weeks to lose 24-20 as a 7-point favorite against Arkansas.

That’s how the betting market feels anyway with this game’s point spread trimming two points from where it sat at Georgia minus-4.5 one week ago. The Crimson Tide exposed the Bulldogs’ void at quarterback where starter Greyson Lambert and backup Brice Ramsey combined to go 11-for-31 and average 3.4 yards per attempt.

Running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel did combine to average better than 6 yards per carry but mostly through an 83-yard rush from the former and a 28-yard scamper from the latter when the game was decided.

In Georgia’s favor this week, Tennessee has proven mediocre in stopping the run at surrendering 4.3 yards per carry. Tennessee may attempt the opposite in going through the air as Georgia is giving up 6.6 yards per pass attempt.

The Volunteers’ receiving corps hasn’t been as productive as hoped for this season, though. Marquez North missed the Arkansas game with a back injury, and Pig Howard was dismissed from the team this week for a violation of team rules.

Tennessee looks to crack a five-game losing streak to Georgia, though the Volunteers have covered in the last three.

Pick: Georgia minus-2.5 The Bulldogs have covered in their last five games off of a loss.
The Associated Press

Navy plus-14.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 55; 12:30 on NBC

Navy senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds has rushed for three touchdowns in his career against Notre Dame. He needs four more Saturday to tie Montee Ball’s NCAA record for most career rushing touchdowns.

While that’s extremely unlikely at best, Navy has eclipsed expectations on a weekly basis this season. The Midshipmen have concurrently outscored the number of points the spread has implied in every game and held their opponents below their own total in starting the season 4-0 straight-up and against the spread.

The trip to Notre Dame will be Navy's first appearance as an underdog this season, though. The Fighting Irish have managed a record just as profitable against the spread, going 4-1 against the closing number with the only failure coming against Virginia when quarterback Malik Zaire broke his ankle.

Replacement DeShone Kizer has proven little drop-off with nearly nine yards per pass attempt and seven touchdowns to three interceptions. Notre Dame is laying more than two touchdowns for the fourth straight year in the series.

The Irish have managed to win all four games, but Navy has covered in each of the last two.

Pick: Navy plus-14.5 The Midshipmen have one of their best teams in a long time, with a legitimate shot to pull off the outright upset.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Northwestern plus-8 at Michigan, over/under: 34.5; 12:30 on Big Ten Network

There’s beauty in college football’s stylistic diversity. Sometimes, it’s like teams aren’t even playing the same game.

A week after Baylor and Texas Tech set the record for highest over/under in history at 90.5 points, Michigan and Northwestern are positioned with a total nearly three times lower. The total of 34.5 points will almost surely finish as the lowest of the year.

And it’s three touchdowns higher than what the two defenses average giving up. Michigan ranks second in the nation, allowing 7.6 points per game, behind only Northwestern at 7 points per game.

They’re also the top two defenses in yards per pass attempt, with Michigan slightly ahead in surrendering 3.9 yards to Northwestern’s 4.1. Neither the Wildcats nor the Wolverines project to throw much against each other.

Northwestern’s offense has operated on the back of sophomore Justin Jackson, who has more than 100 rushing yards in four of five games. Michigan missed leading rusher De’Veon Smith in last week’s 28-0 victory over Maryland — its second straight shutout — but he’s expected back against Northwestern.

He’ll need to be fully healed to brace for the punishment regularly inflicted by Northwestern’s Anthony Walker and Jaylen Prater. The only harder-hitting linebacker duo in the Big Ten might be Michigan’s Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan.

The Red Raiders and Bears flew past the historic over with 96 combined points last week. Can the Wolverines and Wildcats give their style of play the same testament?

Pick: Northwestern plus-8 It’s goes without saying points will be at a premium here, so might as well take them where you can get them.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Arkansas plus-17 at Alabama, over/under: 48; 4:00 on ESPN

This is a battle of the SEC’s best.

Most would not want Arkansas anywhere near that sentence, which is fair considering the Razorbacks’ disappointing 2-3 straight-up and against-the-spread start to the season. But by almost any metric, Arkansas is fielding the conference’s most efficient offense with the unit gaining 7 yards per play and ranking fourth offensively in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

Balance has emerged as the Razorbacks’ strength, with running back Alex Collins recording nearly six yards per carry to go with quarterback Brandon Allen averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt.

But Alabama has the SEC’s best defense by a larger margin. The Crimson Tide are giving up only 3.9 yards per play, including less than three yards per rushing attempt behind 42 tackles from Reggie Ragland.

The dismantling of Georgia was Alabama’s first cover since week 1, which it shares in common with Arkansas. The Razorbacks knocking off Tennessee 24-20 as a 7-point underdog was their first cash since smashing UTEP 48-13 as 32.5-point favorites.

The betting market reacted accordingly to Arkansas’ struggles, boosting this spread 10 points from where it sat at minus-7 in the summer.

Pick: Arkansas plus-17 The Razorbacks’ prices are out of whack, and it’s worth continuing to take them until repaired.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oklahoma State plus-7 at West Virginia, over/under: 60.5; 4:00 on ESPN2

Three straight blowout victories in nonconference play were supposed to have West Virginia poised to break through in the Big 12 this season.

Then the Mountaineers’ conference campaign started similarly to the way they’ve spent their first three years in the Big 12. West Virginia played sloppily last week, losing five turnovers in a 44-24 defeat at Oklahoma as 7-point underdogs.

It fell to 11-17 straight-up and against the spread all-time in the Big 12. Oklahoma State’s conference showings haven’t been much better recently.

Although the Cowboys sit tied atop the Big 12 at 2-0 straight-up, they failed to cover in a 2-point win over Kansas State as 8-point favorites last Saturday and pushed minus-3 at Texas two weeks ago. Last season, Oklahoma State recorded losing straight-up and against the spread conference marks for the first time in nine years.

West Virginia contributed with a 34-10 victory on the road as 2.5-point favorites. Oklahoma State’s defense seems to have improved, however, in giving up only 4.5 yards per play behind one of the nation’s best pass rushers in Emmanuel Ogbah.

West Virginia has also played better defensively behind linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, particularly against the rush where it ranks 14th in the nation per Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-7 Cowboys were only getting three points in this spot during the summer, and there’s no reason for the extra four points.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

TCU minus-10.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 63.5; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

Leave it to a Bill Snyder-coached team to manage an easy cover and near win behind playing the majority of a game with a wide receiver at quarterback.

The Kansas State quarterback situation went from disastrous to apocalyptic last week at Oklahoma State when sophomore Joe Huebner, third-string coming into the year, suffered a concussion to leave receiver Kody Cook at the helm. And yet Kansas State led most of the game and it took a field goal in the final minute from Oklahoma State to prevent an upset with a 36-34 win as 8-point favorites.

Snyder improved to 38-14-1 against the spread in the Big 12 since returning to the sidelines in 2009. Now he must take on acolyte and Kansas State graduate Gary Patterson, who improved to 13-5 against the spread over the last two years at TCU with a 50-7 roughing-up of Texas as 16-point favorites last week.

Senior receiver Josh Doctson rates second in the nation with 722 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on the year, and there’s no fear of him needing to play quarterback. Senior Trevone Boykin had his third straight game of more than 300 passing yards, rising to fourth in the nation with 1,802 passing yards.

Pick: Kansas State plus-10.5 Never doubt Snyder by giving him this many points, especially not in his eponymous venue.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Florida minus-5 at Missouri, over/under: 39.5; 4:30 on SEC Network

No team has sprung up the rankings and betting boards alike as much as the Florida Gators the last two weeks.

They’re down to 50-to-1 to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook after pulling back-to-back outright upsets over Tennessee and Ole Miss. The hype on Florida is reflected in this line, too.

Missouri was a 5-point favorite over Florida in the offseason but rose after failing to cover in a game until last week’s 24-10 victory over South Carolina as a field-goal favorite. It was the first start for freshman quarterback Drew Lock, who went 21-for-28 with 136 yards and two touchdowns. The game will be an all freshman duel with Florida’s Will Grier behind center.

Grier has improved his efficiency in all three SEC games, culminating with 271 yards and four touchdowns on 24-for-29 passing against Ole Miss’ lauded defense in a 38-10 upset victory last week.

The difference comes on defense, where the Gators rank No. 12 in the nation, according to Football Outsiders S&P, compared with the Tigers’ No. 43.

It’s an important symbolic task for Florida, as it’s eyeing the SEC East division title that Missouri earned each of the last two years. The Tigers reached the conference championship game by defending Faurot Field, where they’ve gone 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread versus SEC opposition.

Pick: Missouri plus-5 Conventional wisdom, and even statistics, give the home team little chance. Sounds a lot like last week when Florida stunned Ole Miss.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Miami plus-7.5 at Florida State, over/under: 50.5; 5:00 on ABC

For the third straight week, the money is on Miami.

Florida State opened as large as minus-9.5 before the point spread began trending downward. The Hurricanes haven’t rewarded bettors’ faith in the last two outings, following a devastating noncover against Nebraska in Week 3 with an outright loss as a 7-point favorite at Cincinnati last Thursday.

It’s not as if Florida State has stirred the public, either. The Seminoles’ only cover since a season-opening blowout of Texas State was a 14-0 win over Boston College as 9.5-point favorites, the cash secured when star cornerback Jalen Ramsey returned a fumble for a 36-yard touchdown.

The Seminoles’ other All-American candidate, sophomore running back Dalvin Cook, who’s averaging nearly nine yards per carry, might be out against the Hurricanes with a hamstring injury. Backup running back Mario Pender is also sidelined with a collapsed lung.

Miami will have its leader in sophomore quarterback Brad Kaaya, who’s thrown for 1,094 yards and five touchdowns to one interception on the year, but he’s up against a Florida State defense third in the nation, giving up 4.5 yards per pass attempt.

The Hurricanes have been more susceptible at allowing passing yards, surrendering 6.7 yards per attempt so the game might come down to whether Seminoles quarterback Everett Golson can take advantage.

Pick: Florida State minus-7.5 Seminoles’ defense is impenetrable, and it’s only a matter of time before the offense breaks out alongside.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

California plus-7.5 at Utah, over/under: 61.5; 7:00 on ESPN

The college football world has championed Utah since it conquered Oregon 62-20 as 10.5-point underdogs two weeks ago.

But like any decent hero, Utah holds a fatal flaw. It’s a fatal flaw the Utes will have to conquer in a battle to determine the Pac-12 Conference’s last standing undefeated team.

Utah’s only mediocre unit is its pass defense, which ranks 92nd in the nation by Football Outsiders’ S&P. California is positioned to attack the weakness with Jared Goff, who will likely be the first quarterback off the board in next year’s NFL Draft.

The Bears could add to a 5-0 straight-up, 3-2 against-the-spread record to tally the program’s best start in more than 60 years. Goff deserves the bulk of the early credit after throwing for 1,630 yards and 15 touchdowns so far.

The junior has a pair of elite targets in Kenny Lawler, who’s second in the nation with eight receiving touchdowns, and Bryce Treggs, who’s averaging 16 yards per reception.

That’s more than enough artillery to challenge a green Utah secondary. The Utes have been getting by just fine so far, though.

They’re 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread, with the lone noncover by a single point in a 24-14 win over Utah State. California’s defensive issues far outweigh Utah’s on the surface.

The Bears are 107th per S&P against the run, which happens to be Utah’s preferred method. Dual-threat quarterback Travis Wilson has been electric on the ground in racking up 200 yards and three touchdowns, while running back Devontae Booker already has 106 carries for 443 yards and four touchdowns.

Pick: Utah minus-7.5 Don’t want to get involved in this game at all, but prefer to fade the California defense if forced.