NCAA Tournament by the odds: Las Vegas pick and preview of title game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, April 4, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The first Friday of the NCAA Tournament that made everyone bloviate over the unpredictability of March Madness feels like forever ago.

With a few exceptions — the most notable one Orange — the bracket has played out close to form ever since. Favorites have dominated on a game-by-game basis, leaving a championship matchup between two teams that rated within the top 10 of oddsmakers’ power ratings all year.

Villanova versus North Carolina was the sixth most-likely title pairing at the beginning of the tournament with odds just short of 30-to-1 at offshore sports book 5 Dimes. The nearly even strength of the two teams is reflected in the betting line, where North Carolina lays 2.5 points.

Read Talking Points’ pick and analysis below. The blog’s record picking every game in the tournament stands at 35-30-1 against the spread.

Villanova plus-2.5 vs. North Carolina Handicapping this game must feel like getting picked as a contestant for “The Price is Right” and having to ascertain whether an amount on an object is too high or too low. The retail item, in this case, is the Villanova Wildcats. Based on recent history, the posted price seems a little high. Then again, they’re such a hot commodity at the moment that the number could be considered not only reasonable but possibly a bargain.

In theory, there would be no better time to sell high on Villanova. Rewind a few weeks — to perhaps March 12, when North Carolina beat Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite in the ACC Tournament championship game while Villanova got upset by Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in the Big East tournament final — and the Wildcats are taking at least an extra point from the Tar Heels in this spot. But they’ve slashed sports books’ lines ever since, covering in every NCAA Tournament round by an average of 18.5 points per game. For comparison’s sake, each of the past two national champions went undefeated against the spread en route to the final game. Duke covered by an average of 9 points last year, while 2014 Connecticut’s mean was 12. Even taking away Villanova’s 99-51 evisceration of Oklahoma on Saturday, the largest Final Four blowout ever, its covering average is still higher at 13 points per game.

It’s therefore justified that Villanova’s power ratings fluctuated, something almost totally foreign to North Carolina. The Tar Heels have set the sports book gold standard all season, as most shops opened them as the preseason favorite to win the title — though several others went with Kentucky. North Carolina is looking to become the first team with that distinction to cut down the nets since it did as much in 2009. This year’s Tar Heels grappled with the expectations for much of the year, entering the ACC Tournament five games below .500 against the spread. But, like Villanova, North Carolina fits with the tried narrative of a team peaking at the right time by going 7-1 versus the number since. It’s covered by an average of 7 points per game with the only point-spread loss in an easy 83-67 win over Florida Gulf Coast as 22.5-point favorites in the opening round of the tournament.

Most backing North Carolina are mentioning its size advantage and how Villanova has no answer inside for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks. Both are major assets, but that reflects an antiquated view of basketball. Villanova causes just as many, if not more, matchup problems with its practical four-guard starting lineup of Josh Hart, Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson and versatility to go even smaller at any time. There’s a reason it has the two most efficient offensive performances of the season in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 1.5 points per possession or more against both Oklahoma and Miami. Those are two of three opponents Villanova have beaten this tournament that rank inside of kenpom.com's top 15 teams nationally, with No. 4 Kansas the other. That’s a much tougher path than North Carolina has faced, as its barely seen one such team — No. 15 Indiana. Expecting Villanova to hold its .581 NCAA Tournament shooting percentage in the title game is borderline delusional, but the intensity that’s also made it arguably the best defensive team in the tournament should stay.

With the guarantee of picking every tournament game, an answer must come even if it’s not the most confident one. Tell Bob Barker the price on Villanova looks low.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.