Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

16 things to know before betting the Sweet 16

Jevon Carter Tournament

ASSOCIATED PRESS

West Virginia guard Jevon Carter (2), center, shoots as Murray State forward Jalen Dupree (40), right, and forward Anthony Smith (24), left, defend during the second half of a first-round NCAA college basketball tournament game Friday, March 16, 2018, in San Diego.

Don’t be fooled by photos of money line tickets and high-priced parlays still circulating on social media a few days after the initial weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Sports books aren’t hurting through the first 52 games of March Madness.

Sure, they may have taken a hit on a few highly-shared bets like UMBC at 25-to-1 to beat Virginia last Friday night but they more than made up for all the minor bumps before the weekend concluded. It remains to be seen if casinos can top last March’s record $41.2 million win on basketball, but they’re probably at least on pace.

From a strictly records standpoint, the tournament couldn’t have started any better for the house. Underdogs stand at 29-22-1 against the spread, with “under” outperforming “over” at a 31-21 clip in the totals.

Favorites and overs are always the more popular plays on the opening weekend as a whole, and they simply didn’t perform well enough for the majority of tourists to leave Las Vegas as winners.

In an effort to rectify that performance over the second weekend, here are 16 things to know heading into the Sweet 16. Make sure to check back to Talking Points tomorrow for the blog’s picks on the next eight games.

• The 16 teams remaining certainly contributed to the “under” bent, as 19 of their collective 33 games over the first week of the tournament failed to eclipse the total. Only three of the teams left went over in each of their first two games — Kentucky, West Virginia and UNR.

• UMBC’s victory over Virginia is already being referred to, and will continue to be referred to, as, “the biggest upset in tournament history.” It’s a fair depiction given the historic nature of a No. 16 seed prevailing over a No. 1 seed for the first time in 136 tries, but technically inaccurate. The closing spread of Virginia minus-20.5 was still a point less than No. 2 seed Missouri’s minus-21.5 in 2012 before being upset by Norfolk State 86-84.

• The Retrievers’ second tournament game was almost as terrible as the Virginia win was thrilling. With both teams struggling mightily on offense, Kansas State’s 50-43 win over UMBC as 10.5-point favorites was the lowest-scoring game of the tournament. The Wildcats, which have played without injured leading scorer Dean Wade, rate as the least efficient team left in the field. They’ve scored only 0.901 points per possession, a tournament-high 0.16 drop-off from their regular season average.

• Bettors are therefore lining up to bet on Kentucky as a 5.5-point favorite against Kansas State. Kentucky is the most popular early bet on the board, with all indications that it’s drawing about 75 percent of the action ahead of Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup in Atlanta. Kentucky has won and covered in five straight games after handling Davidson and Buffalo to open the tournament.

• Kentucky has scored 1.074 points per possession in the tournament, making for an improvement of 0.127 over its regular-season average. That’s significant, but not the biggest leap by any team. West Virginia holds that distinction after beating up on Murray State and Marshall with 1.103 points per possession, 0.166 better than it fared in the regular season. Senior point guard Jevon Carter is the leading remaining scorer in the field with an average of 24.5 points per game.

• Carter posted as a 45-to-1 long shot to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award offshore before the tournament. Despite the preponderance of upsets, six of the top 10 favorites to win the award remain in the tournament. The top two choices were Villanova’s Jalen Brunson, 6-to-1, and Duke’s Marvin Bagley, 7-to-1. Joining the duo at the top of the board are Duke’s Grayson Allen, Villanova’s Mikal Bridges, Kansas’ Devonte’ Graham and Duke’s Wendell Carter Jr.

• As that list may suggest, and with Virginia now out of the way, Villanova and Duke are now the clear favorites in sports books to win the title. And the gap between the two is closing. At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, Villanova is offered at 3-to-1 in future odds with Duke at 7-to-2. The Wildcats and Blue Devils are additionally the only pair of teams offered at a minus-price to reach the Final Four at 11-to-10 and 4-to-5, respectively.

• The most drastically improved odds to reach the Final Four, however, belongs to UNR. The Wolf Pack are now 3-to-1 to reach San Antonio next weekend, a decrease from 60-to-1 a week ago. The gigantic shift is largely because of the makeup of the South Region, where each of the top four seeds were upset.

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Nevada Wolf Pack forward Cody Martin (11) and UNLV Rebels guard Jordan Johnson (24) go out of bounds while chasing a loose ball during a 2018 Mountain West Men's Basketball Championship game at the Thomas & Mack Center Thursday, March 8, 2018.

• Given the deficits they faced in their first two games, the Wolf Pack are the most improbable team to reach the Sweet 16 — and also could have been the most profitable if bettors struck at the right time. The odds implied only a 0.6 percent chance UNR could dig out of both a 22-point hole against Cincinnati and a 14-point deficit versus Texas. The Wolf Pack got as high as 22-to-1 on William Hill sports books’ in-game wagering against the Bearcats, and reached plus-625 (risking $1 to win $6.25) versus the Longhorns.

• William Hill surely took a hit on those prices, but the pain will pale in comparison to the one the company faces if Syracuse continues its improbable run. A bettor placed a $1,234.56 wager on the Orange to win the national championship at 300-to-1 odds in December, with a potential payout of $370,368. By virtue of having to play in a First Four game, Syracuse has already pulled three outright upsets to reach the Sweet 16. If a bettor would have placed $100 on the Orange in their first tournament game and let the winnings ride from there, he or she would now be up $1,810.82.

• The Orange’s run has not surprisingly made their future odds change the most of any team in the field. Syracuse’s price to win the national championship has decreased by more than 16 times, as it went from 1,000-to-1 at the Westgate pre-tournament to 60-to-1 currently.

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Purdue center Isaac Haas grimaces after falling on his right elbow during the second half of a first round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament against Cal State Fullerton, Friday, March 16, 2018, in Detroit.

• Only two Sweet 16 teams have seen their odds to win the national championship completely unaffected — Michigan and Purdue. The Wolverines have stayed at 10-to-1 ever since the field was set, and the Boilermakers closely behind at 12-to-1. Purdue has even seen its price to reach the Final Four increase, from 5-to-2 to 7-to-2, after losing senior center Isaac Haas to injury.

• Purdue’s inflated chances to reach the Final Four has as much to do with the rugged East Region as it does Haas’ injury. The East is the only region in the tournament where the top four favorites to win all advanced to the Sweet 16. Although West Virginia was seeded No. 5, bookmakers had the Mountaineers at lower odds than No. 4 seed Wichita State to win the region.

• The odds label Gonzaga as the most likely team to make the Final Four behind Villanova, Duke and Kentucky even though it’s the biggest underperformer left in the field by the point spread. The Bulldogs have played seven points below their expectation, never threatening to cover minus-12.5 in a 68-64 win over UNC Greensboro and barely beating the 4.5-point number in a 90-84 victory over Ohio State.

• Clemson is easily the biggest point-spread overachiever, having covered by a combined 40 points in its first two games. The Tigers stifled trendy underdog New Mexico State 79-68 as 3.5-point favorites before clobbering Auburn 84-53 as 1-point underdogs. The impressive performances have drug Clemson’s Sweet 16 spread down to plus-4.5 against Kansas.

• Round-specific trends carry little handicapping value, but they’re often discussed anyway. So here goes nothing, quite literally because balance has been the story of recent Sweet 16s. In the last five years, favorites are 19-20-1 against the spread in the round with over/unders deadlocked at 20-20.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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