Bowl pick’em against the spread: Part 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2019 | 2 a.m.

With the College Football Playoff semifinals now completed, it feels as if the sport's entire fan base is in an extended waiting room leading up to LSU vs. Clemson on Jan. 13.

At least there's quite a bit to watch for entertainment, if not profit, in the meantime. There are still 14 more opening acts in the form of bowl games before the two Tigers take the field at the Superdome in New Orleans two weeks from now.

I want to use them to the best of my ability to boost my college football bottom line, which took a hit in the last bowl column. A 2-11 record dropped my overall counts to 406-332-18 picking every game all season and 12-13 in bowl games.

Read below for picks on the next 14 games, labeled in three confidence categories with lines being the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Check back on Jan. 13 for the handicap of the championship game.

Belk Bowl at 9 a.m. Tuesday in Charlotte: Virginia Tech minus-2.5 vs. Kentucky, over/under: 46.5. Number looks right, but the biggest plus matchup sits in the Hokies' favor. The Wildcats have run all over teams in their recent wins with converted receiver Lynn Bowden taking over at quarterback after multiple injuries, but the Hokies rank in the nation's top 25 in rush defense success rate. Guess: Virginia Tech minus-2.5.

Sun Bowl at 11 a.m. Tuesday in El Paso, Texas: Florida State plus-4.5 vs. Arizona State, over/under: 54.5. Arizona State has lost both coordinators since the end of the season and will be without top receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Florida State has played better under interim coach Odell Haggins, who led the team to a 42-13 bowl romp over Southern Miss two years ago. Play: Florida State plus-4.5.

Liberty Bowl at 12:45 p.m. Tuesday in Memphis: Navy minus-3 vs. Kansas State, over/under: 52.5. Kansas State opened as a 1-point favorite, but Navy has taken all the action to push the spread out of a justifiable range. These teams look too evenly matched for either side to be a field-goal or more favorite, so the Wildcats have reached a buy point at the few sports books that have stretched to 3. Lean: Kansas State plus-3.

Arizona Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday in Tucson, Ariz.: Georgia State plus-7 vs. Wyoming, over/under: 48. Against a tougher strength of schedule, Wyoming managed a plus-78 point differential on the season to Georgia State's minus-44. Some caution must be employed due to the Cowboys' deliberate pace, but this goes too far as there's no reason for this number to be less than double digits. Play: Wyoming minus-7.

Alamo Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Tuesday in San Antonio: Texas plus-7 vs. Utah, over/under: 54. Don't get too fixated on Utah's most recent performance, a 37-15 loss to Oregon as 6.5-point favorites in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes picked a bad time to have their worst game of the season after covering eight in a row and would have been closer to a 10-point favorite here before the loss. The only hold-up is the Longhorns getting to play a semi-home game 80 miles from their campus. Guess: Utah minus-7.

Citrus Bowl at 10 a.m. Wednesday in Orlando, Fla.: Michigan plus-7 vs. Alabama, over/under: 58. A number of Crimson Tide players feared to be a risk of sitting out the bowl game — including receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III — have announced their intentions to play, and yet the line hasn't shifted. It might just be a delayed reaction. Alabama deserves to be a higher favorite than this, and the spread will still likely rise so pocket what should turn into a good price now. Play: Alabama minus-7.

Outback Bowl at 10 a.m. Wednesday in Tampa, Fla.: Minnesota plus-7 vs. Auburn, over/under: 53.5. Minnesota's schedule wasn't as weak as everyone has made it out to be — especially not with the Big Ten performing well in bowls — as it ranks 30^th in the nation by teamrankings' metric. And, more importantly, the Gophers blew through it with a highly impressive 1.4 net yard per play. Isolate for this season only, and they aren't much worse than the Tigers. Lean: Minnesota plus-7.

Rose Bowl at 2 p.m. Wednesday in Pasadena, Calif.: Oregon plus-2.5 vs. Wisconsin, over/under: 51.5. Analytics paint a clear picture of what this point spread should be — Wisconsin minus-3. That's what most sports books have, so this might be a Rose Bowl to sit back, enjoy and consider betting in-game, but any variation off the field goal looks slightly off. Guess: Wisconsin minus-2.5.

Sugar Bowl at 5:45 p.m. Wednesday in New Orleans: Georgia minus-4.5 vs. Baylor, over/under: 41.5. This opened at a fair price — Georgia minus-7.5 — but has moved far too much in Baylor's direction. The Bears benefitted from a lot of good fortune this year, going 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less — and the two losses were to Oklahoma in games where they were outplayed to a greater degree statistically — and had a plus-14 turnover margin. Play: Georgia minus-4.5.

Birmingham Bowl at Noon Thursday in Birmingham, Ala.: Boston College plus-7.5 vs. Cincinnati, over/under: 55.5. Cincinnati's offense has lacked explosiveness, which should preclude them from laying more than a touchdown against decent opponents. The half-point hook looms large, as it's disappeared from most notable offshore sports books but is still available locally. Lean: Boston College plus-7.5.

Gator Bowl at 4 p.m. Thursday in Jacksonville, Fla.: Indiana plus-1.5 vs. Tennessee, over/under: 52. Tennessee has a distinct talent advantage over Indiana, as its roster finally started playing up to expectations in the second half of the season. The Volunteers have covered in six of their last seven games with the only point-spread loss coming in a 28-10 win over Vanderbilt as 24-point favorites. Lean: Tennessee minus-1.5.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Friday in Boise, Idaho: Ohio minus-7.5 vs. UNR, over/under: 58.5. The Wolf Pack are hands-down the worst team to make a bowl this season, ranking No. 115 nationally by Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings. Ohio also underachieved, but were a couple close losses away from winning the MAC, and might still be the conference's best team. Lean: Ohio minus-7.5.

Armed Forces Bowl at 8:30 a.m. Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas: Tulane minus-7 vs. Southern Miss, over/under: 56.5. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on Tulane, which is coming off of three straight losses but played extremely well on the season as a whole. Southern Miss has a habit for giving up big plays and rates 74^th in the nation at allowing 5.6 yards per play, meaning it might be in for a long day. Play: Tulane minus-7.

Lendingtree Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Monday in Mobile, Ala.: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-14 vs. Miami (Ohio), over/under: 56. The Ragin' Cajuns have been one of the best teams in the nation to bet on, going 9-4 against the spread and blowing out most opponents. There's not much reason to call on that stopping here against an overachieving RedHawks team that went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Lean: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-14.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.