College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 10 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 1, 2019 | 2 a.m.

For about half of the teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, the College Football Playoff is not the ultimate goal.

It’s a New Year’s Six bowl game berth. That’s out of necessity, as the way the sport is currently constructed, it’s borderline impossible for the Group of Five conference teams to be included in the four-team bracket to determine the national champion.

They’re guaranteed one slot in either the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Peach or Fiesta Bowls, however, and that’s become the aim. One major candidate to snag this year’s automatic bid will emerge Saturday night in Memphis.

For yet another year, the American Athletic Conference is rated as the best Group of 5 league and clarity is coming in its West division. SMU and Memphis battle for control at the top of the standings at 4:30 p.m. Saturday at the Liberty Bowl in ABC’s nationally televised game of the week.

The winner will still be an underdog to East division frontrunner Cincinnati, currently minus-130 (risking $1.30 to win $1) to win the AAC at Circa sports books, in the league race but in position to stage a coup. Memphis is currently a 5.5-point favorite over SMU, and I couldn’t help but make one of the nine plays in this week’s column on the game.

It’s good to see the smaller-conference guys getting some love for once. I pick all the conferences regardless and have been doing so all year, so far to great success with the record picking every FBS game so far this season standing at 259-186-13 — 41-31-2 on plays, 74-35-2 on leans and 144-120-9 on guesses — through two Thursday contests.

Read below for picks on every Week 10 game, separated by conference and labeled with three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

SMU plus-5.5 at Memphis, over/under: 71.5. The line was more appealing at 3.5 earlier in the week, but much like it’s been all season, Memphis is still under-valued. The Tigers grade out higher than the Mustangs on both sides of the ball and have a higher point differential despite having faced a tougher schedule. Play: Memphis minus-5.5.

Tulsa plus-10 at Tulane, over/under: 60. This is a bad spot both stylistically and situationally for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane struggle to stop the run, which will play right into the hands of Green Wave option quarterback Justin McMillan and big-play back Corey Dauphine. They’re also playing their fifth game in five weeks against top teams in the conference, including their third on the road. Play: Tulane minus-10.

Cincinnati minus-24 at East Carolina, over/under: 47.5. Cincinnati’s offense can be conservative to a fault, not a characteristic that’s appealing when laying this large of a number. The Bearcats have only won one game by this many points all year. Lean: East Carolina plus-24.

Houston plus-21.5 at Central Florida, over/under: 71. Now being uncharacteristically ignored by the masses of bettors, the Knights are a bet-on team. There’s no reason a pair of somewhat unlucky losses to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, by a total of four points, should cause a big adjustment in the market. Lean: Central Florida minus-21.5.

Navy minus-26.5 at Connecticut, over/under: 55. The Huskies have played the best they have in two years over the last two weeks, but the competition must be considered. How much stock do strong performances against bare-bones Houston and national bottom-feeder Massachusetts deserve though? Guess: Navy minus-26.5.

ACC

Miami plus-3 at Florida State, over/under: 48. Miami has struggled to score, but has one of the best defensive front sevens in the nation starring linebacker Shaquille Quarterman and edge rusher Gregory Rousseau. Florida State hasn’t been efficient offensively, and that’s without facing a challenge like the Hurricanes’ defense. Play: Miami plus-3.

North Carolina State plus-7.5 at Wake Forest, over/under: 60. This looks like a plus matchup for pass-happy NC State, which throws as much as any team in the nation despite up-and-down results. Wake Forest is giving up 8.1 yards per pass attempt ranking in the nation’s bottom 30. Play: NC State plus-7.5.

Virginia plus-2.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 47. Buy low on Virginia, which looks like the most complete team in the Coastal Division despite recent tight losses to Louisville and Miami. This would be a play if the line somehow climbs to the full field goal. Lean: Virginia plus-2.5.

Pittsburgh minus-8 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 43. Line looks perfect, but I’m more confident in Georgia Tech continuing to improve as the season winds down. Coach Geoff Collins is sharp, and with his schemes now in place, the Yellow Jackets could surprise down the stretch. Guess: Georgia Tech plus-8.

Boston College plus-3 at Syracuse, over/under: 60. Boston College has been completely one-dimensional and limited since losing quarterback Anthony Brown for the season to injury. The Eagles are also coming off of a 59-7 pounding to Clemson as 35.5-point underdogs, leaving other parts of the roster also banged up. Guess: Syracuse minus-3.

Big Ten

Michigan minus-21.5 at Maryland, over/under: 56.5. The extra half point makes it even more unavoidable: There’s value on the Terrapins. Michigan’s offense has looked strong enough to command this large of a spread exactly once — in last week’s 45-14 win over Notre Dame. If there’s any game Maryland will be up for, it’s this one given coach Mike Locksley’s history with Wolverines offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. Play: Maryland plus-21.5.

Northwestern plus-11 at Indiana, over/under: 43.5. Northwestern might have the worst offense in the nation considering it’s been nearly 10 quarters since they last found the end zone. The Wildcats must show semblance of heading in the right direction before a bettor should even consider backing them. Lean: Indiana minus-11.

Nebraska minus-3.5 at Purdue, over/under: 58. Tough one to call, but I would rather be on the right side of the key number with a well-coached Boilermakers team. If the spread happened to drop below a field goal, Nebraska would become the pick. Guess: Purdue plus-3.5.

Rutgers plus-20.5 at Illinois, over/under: 50.5. Yes, Rutgers beat Massachusetts last week 44-34 but the Scarlet Knights were outgained by 1 yard per play. Translation: This is still not a team worth backing unless absolutely necessary. Guess: Illinois minus-20.5.

Big 12

Kansas State minus-6 at Kansas, over/under: 57.5. Kansas — yes, Kansas — has run one of the most innovative offenses in the nation ever since Brent Dearmon took over as coordinator and playcaller. Kansas State has back-to-back big wins over Oklahoma and TCU but appears slightly overvalued by virtue of going 3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Lean: Kansas plus-6.

TCU plus-3 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 59. The number looks exactly right, but the Cowboys have been volatile this year juggling great performances with questionable ones. The Horned Frogs are easier to trust and have the better defense. Guess: TCU plus-3.

Conference USA

UTEP plus-22 at North Texas, over/under: 60. UTEP has one of the worst passing defenses in the nation; North Texas has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation in Mason Fine. Sometimes it’s just that simple. Guess: North Texas minus-22.

Middle Tennessee minus-3 at Charlotte, over/under: 65. Charlotte grades out higher than Middle Tennessee by some measures, including net yards per play where the 49ers are only minus-0.1 to the Blue Raiders’ minus-0.4. I can’t pass up getting a field goal at home. Guess: Charlotte plus-3.

Old Dominion plus-17 at Florida International, over/under: 49. There have been few surer fades than Old Dominion, which ranks dead-last nationally at 3.3 yards per play and has only covered once in the last five weeks with a hollow 31-17 loss as 16-point underdogs at Marshall. This presents a nice chance for Florida International to bounce back from a second-half disappearing act in a 50-17 loss to Middle Tennessee as 1-point favorites last week. Lean: Florida International minus-17.

Marshall minus-10.5 at Rice, over/under: 48. Yes, Rice is winless but somewhat unluckily considering they’ve gone 0-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less — including a spirited effort earlier this season at Baylor. The Owls play methodically and tough enough to hang with stronger opponents, an upgrade from the past two years. Guess: Rice plus-10.5.

Florida Atlantic minus-1 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 50.5. Even though this looks like a tough spot, I feel like I’ve cemented my pick by both banging the “Florida Atlantic is the best team in the Conference USA” drum and even betting it. If that’s the case, this is a must-win for the Owls. Guess: Florida Atlantic minus-1.

Independents

Virginia Tech plus-17.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 58.5. Notre Dame has a massive talent edge but plays at a relatively slow pace not conducive to covering big spreads against competent opponents. This looks like a stay-away game. Guess: Virginia Tech plus-17.5.

Liberty minus-23 at Massachusetts Analytical studies have shown that there’s less of a floor on an all-time terrible teams compared to ceilings for all-time great teams. Massachusetts is an all-time terrible team — and counting. Guess: Liberty minus-23.

MAC

Buffalo pick’em at Eastern Michigan, over/under: 50.5. Since the start of conference play, Buffalo has arguably been the most impressive team in the MAC. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be a favorite against the conference’s average-to-mediocre opponents, regardless of where the game is being played. Guess: Buffalo pick’em.

Northern Illinois minus-1 at Central Michigan, over/under: 50. A few small changes on offense have gone a long way for the Huskies. They’ve emphasized the running game with Marcus Childers at quarterback, helping lift them from a few anemic performances at the start of the season still lingering to have an effect on their power ratings. Guess: Northern Illinois minus-1.

Akron plus-6.5 at Bowling Green, over/under: 50.5. Stay locked in the closet for three hours. Travel to Akron, Ohio on vacation. Jump into Bowling Green University’s pond in the dead winter. That’s a short list of things I’d rather do than watch, let alone, bet this game. Guess: Akron plus-6.5.

Mountain West

Fresno State plus-2.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 69.5. Fresno State has been as erratic as expected as one of the nation’s youngest teams, but it has edges all over the field against Hawaii. The program also seems to have travel to Hawaii down to a science as it hasn’t lost a game at Aloha Stadium in its last five tries, dating back to 2007. Play: Fresno State plus-2.

Army plus-16 at Air Force, over/under: 45.5. I’m going to attempt one last buy-low on Army, which shouldn’t be as helpless as it’s looked in the last four weeks in one of its two biggest games of the season. Air Force was only a 2.5-point favorite in this game in September. Lean: Army plus-16.

Boise State minus-17 at San Jose State, over/under: 59.5. Boise State’s secondary has been shaky all year, and as crazy as it may sound, San Jose State might be the most poised to test that since week 1 when Florida State torched the Broncos through the air. Senior quarterback Josh Love has been a revelation for Trojans and may keep rolling. Lean: San Jose State plus-17.

BYU plus-3 at Utah State, over/under: 50.5. Can’t shake a feeling that Utah State’s explosiveness might end up being the difference. The teams are fairly evenly matched but Utah State quarterback Jordan Love gives the Aggies a dimension the Cougars don’t have. Guess: Utah State minus-3.

UNLV plus-9 at Colorado State, over/under: 65.5. Freshman quarterback Kenyon Oblad has settled in for the Rebels to give them a balanced offense for the first time in ages. I’d feel more comfortable if this spread snuck back to 10 but UNLV should have enough to stay competitive. Guess: UNLV plus-9.

New Mexico plus-3.5 at UNR, over/under: 58.5. Both these teams are so bad — UNR is No. 119 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings to New Mexico’s No. 121 — that the only option is taking the points with either side. The Lobos do have a pair of decent running backs in Ahmari Davis and Bryson Carroll. Guess: New Mexico plus-3.5.

Pac-12

Oregon minus-5 at USC, over/under: 62. USC quarterback Kedon Slovis has been far more explosive and slightly more efficient than Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, so it’s hard to swallow the narrative that the Ducks have an offensive advantage. Don’t be surprised if this line closes at 3, more in line with where it should be. Play: USC plus-5.

Utah minus-3.5 at Washington, over/under: 47.5. Utah has crushed three straight opponents — California, Arizona State and Oregon State — but all of them have mediocre to awful offenses. Not only does Washington have a capable offense, but it’s coming off a bye week while Utah is playing a fourth straight week. Play: Washington plus-3.5.

Colorado plus-6.5 at UCLA, over/under: 64.5. The Bruins remain a deeply flawed team despite winning back-to-back games. They’re one of only eight teams in the nation giving up more than 9 yards per passing attempt, meaning Colorado quarterback Steven Montez could thrive and turn this into a shootout. Lean: Colorado plus-6.5.

Oregon State plus-6 at Arizona, over/under: 71.5. In a game where I don’t have much of a read, I’m grabbing what might turn into a value price with the underdog. This number is crashing offshore and looks likely to close more around Arizona minus-4. Guess: Oregon State plus-6.

SEC

Georgia minus-6 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, over/under: 44.5. Sell high on Florida, which is headed in the right direction under Dan Mullen but still at a talent discrepancy to the top teams in the nation. That was evident when the Gators gave up more than 10 yards per play in a 42-28 loss to LSU two weeks ago, and Georgia’s roster rates out even higher. Play: Georgia minus-6.

UTSA plus-38 at Texas A&M, over/under: 53.5. Given the frustration they’ve endured throughout the season, the Aggies are unlikely to show much mercy against an outmatched opponent. They can name their score here. Guess: Texas A&M minus-38.

UAB plus-11 at Tennessee, over/under: 48. As great as UAB has been against Conference USA opponents the last two years, it was wholly uncompetitive when stepping up to take on an SEC opponent with blowout non-cover losses to Texas A&M and Florida. The Blazers also might be catching the Volunteers at a bad time considering they’re playing well and need to win three of their final four to get to bowl eligibility. Guess: Tennessee minus-11.

Mississippi plus-19.5 at Auburn, over/under: 52.5. Count on Ole Miss offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez to find ways around Auburn’s deadly defensive front, especially after having a bye week to work with. Laying nearly three touchdowns is a big ask for Auburn a week after a deflating 23-20 loss to LSU that leaves many of its goals unreachable. Guess: Ole Miss plus-19.5.

Vanderbilt plus-15 at South Carolina, over/under: 51. This line was shaping up to be somewhere closer to South Carolina minus-21 before last week’s disparate results — Vanderbilt’s 21-14 win over Missouri as 12-point underdogs and South Carolina’s 41-21 loss to Tennessee as 4-point favorites. Vanderbilt’s performance was so out of nowhere that it’s hard to know what to make of it. Guess: South Carolina minus-15.

Mississippi State minus-7.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 58.5. Add cluster injuries in the defensive front seven to the complete disarray of the Mississippi State program. Even though statistical measures and straight talent would indicate the Bulldogs hold value here, this is a situation to avoid entirely. Guess: Arkansas plus-7.5.

Sun Belt

Arkansas State minus-1.5 at Louisiana-Monroe, over/under: 66.5. This number is a few points lower than where it would have been earlier in the season, and it’s largely because of Arkansas State’s injury situation. The Red Wolves are beaten up, but they’ve held it together somewhat admirably, including an easy 38-14 win at Texas State last week. Guess: Arkansas State minus-1.5.

Troy minus-1 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 60.5. With these teams looking dead-even, weight for prior-season performance is the only reason why Troy should be a favorite on the road. Through nine weeks of the season, I prefer to minimize the impact of priors. Guess: Coastal Carolina plus-1.

Texas State plus-22 at Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 55.5. ULL coach Billy Napier has lived up to his reputation as a Nick Saban/Dabo Swinney disciple in the sense that his team comes in prepared and focused regardless of the opponent. The Ragin Cajuns are 4-1 against the spread the last two years when laying double digits. Guess: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-22.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.