College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 14 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 29, 2019 | 2 a.m.

It's time to bid farewell to the glorious betting phenomenon known as the college football regular season. At least it will be a long goodbye.

There's hardly a waking hour over the next two days without some sort of Football Bowl Subdivision action taking place as virtually every team hits the field one last time. Dig in, enjoy and perhaps allow this column to steer you in the direction of some worthwhile bets.

I'm certainly sad to see the regular season go as I enter into the final weekend trying to maintain my best college football season of all-time. Picking every FBS game through last week, I've gone 365-273-18 — 57-47-4 on plays, 96-56-2 on leans and 212-170-12 on guesses.

Read below for picks on every week 14 game, labeled in three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

Cincinnati plus-11 at Memphis, over/under: 56.5. Having nothing to play for after clinching the conference's East division last week, Cincinnati might be incentivized to keep it vanilla against West-leading Memphis. The Tigers, meanwhile, must win to clinch their spot in the conference championship game. Lean: Memphis minus-11.

Navy minus-8.5 at Houston Turnover luck helped Houston prevail in a game it had no business winning last week, 24-21 over Tulsa as 7-point favorites. That result is helping keep this spread in single digits, even though Navy is more sure-handed and unlikely to gift Houston the same opportunities. Lean: Navy minus-8.5.

Tulane plus-3.5 at SMU, over/under: 71. SMU is in an advantageous scheduling spot facing triple-option teams in back-to-back weeks. The Mustangs' rush defense is decent to begin with, and the Green Wave may be without their top two running backs — Corey Dauphine and Darius Bradwell are both banged up. Lean: SMU minus-3.5.

Tulsa minus-5.5 at East Carolina, over/under: 61.5. Adjustments for prior performances from these two programs are still having too much sway in this spread. These two teams have played about evenly over the last few weeks, meaning neither team deserves to be this large of a home underdog. Guess: East Carolina plus-5.5.

Connecticut plus-28 at Temple, over/under: 48.5. Randy Edsall promised progress this season, and so far, he's delivered. The Huskies are no longer the walkover they were the last two seasons and are actually more efficient offensively than the Owls, gaining 5 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to the home team's 4.8. Guess: UConn plus-28.

South Florida plus-23.5 at Central Florida, over/under: 63. There are no bargains to be found here, but it's hard to pinpoint any area where the Bulls have a decisive advantage. I'm not into backing teams without a single decisive advantage. Guess: UCF minus-23.5.

ACC

Miami minus-8.5 at Duke, over/under: 44.5. Miami is at plus-0.8 net yard per play on the season; Duke is at negative-1.2. This is therefore a much bigger mismatch than the point spread implies. Play: Miami minus-8.5.

Virginia Tech minus-3 at Virginia, over/under: 47.5. I've got enough exposure on this game via an over season win total bet on Virginia, so I'm not looking to get heavily involved despite the line offering some value. Especially with the Cavaliers having shown signs of life on offense over the last three weeks, they should be a slight favorite to beat the Hokies for the first time in 16 years. Lean: Virginia plus-3.

Georgia minus-28 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 46.5. Georgia Tech's offense has been nonexistent against every strong defense it's faced, and Georgia's defense will be the strongest. Not even a tricky scheduling spot where the Bulldogs are surely more focused on next week's SEC Championship Game against LSU can justify this line being too short. Lean: Georgia minus-28.

Boston College plus-9.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 51.5. Pittsburgh has cluster injuries in its skill positions, which has limited the effectiveness of its once lethal passing game over the last few weeks. Needing a win to become bowl eligible, Boston College will throw everything it has left in this game. Lean: Boston College plus-9.5.

North Carolina minus-10 at North Carolina State, over/under: 54.5. The number has climbed three points, far enough to where the Wolfpack must be a consideration. NC State came to life in the second half of a 28-26 loss to Georgia Tech as 2.5-point favorites last week and was a two-point conversion away from forcing overtime, and if anything can spur them to maintain the breakout, it's a date against its rival. Lean: NC State plus-10.

Wake Forest minus-4.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 69.5. Before last week's disparate results —Wake Forest smashing Duke 39-27 as 6.5-point underdogs and Syracuse getting demolished 56-34 to Louisville as 9-point underdogs — this spread was trending to be closer to a pick'em. This should still be a close game that comes down to the fourth quarter. Guess: Syracuse plus-4.5.

Big Ten

Wisconsin minus-3 at Minnesota, over/under: 46. This will be the rare game this season where the Golden Gophers don't have a pronounced advantage up front. Wisconsin should win the battle in the trenches and spring Jonathan Taylor to a number of big plays. Lean: Wisconsin minus-3.

Ohio State minus-9.5 at Michigan, over/under: 50.5. The Wolverines' power rating is still being weighed down from their rough start to the season, but they've been a different team over the last month. They have a plus-121 point differential during a four-game straight-up/against the spread winning steak with Ohio State only marginally better at plus-136 against a schedule of similar strength during the span. Guess: Michigan plus-9.5.

Iowa minus-5.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 44.5. I initially thought improving Nebraska might be worth a look, but not at this price. There's nothing that's happened all season that indicates the Cornhuskers should be getting less than a full touchdown against the Hawkeyes. Guess: Iowa minus-5.5.

Indiana minus-6 at Purdue, over/under: 57. Purdue has overperformed in covering three straight, but it remains the most beaten-up team in the conference. An injury report as lengthy as the Boilermakers' typically catches up to a team, and this is the last chance for it to catch up. Guess: Indiana minus-6.

Maryland plus-21.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 48.5. Michigan State has been too mistake-prone and limited offensively all season to lay more than three touchdowns. If the Spartans hadn't shut out Rutgers 27-0 last week, this spread would be closer to two touchdowns. Guess: Michigan State minus-21.5.

Northwestern plus-8 at Illinois, over/under: 43.5. I've been an Illini skeptic all year, but they've covered in six straight and seen no significant change in the market. Similarly, Northwestern has lost five straight against the spread without any adjustment. Guess: Illinois minus-8.

Rutgers plus-40 at Penn State, over/under: 49. The Nittany Lions will almost certainly lead by this many points at some juncture; the only question is if they stop pushing for scores. Rutgers' offense is so anemic that the probability of a backdoor cover is minimized. Guess: Penn State minus-40.

Big 12

Iowa State minus-4.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 46. These 7-4 straight-up records were created anything but equally. Iowa State has a plus-1.5 net yard per play on the season as opposed to Kansa State's minus-0.7. The Cyclones should be laying a touchdown. Play: Iowa State minus-4.5.

Texas Tech plus-10 at Texas, over/under: 63.5. Texas is far too banged up to be laying this many points. Texas Tech isn't healthy either, but it's played well in each of the last two weeks and were unlucky to lose by a total of five points to both Kansas State and TCU. Lean: Texas Tech plus-10.

Baylor minus-14 at Kansas, over/under: 51.5. Baylor is almost surely already preparing for Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game in practice, leaving an opportunity for Kansas to sneak up and stay competitive. Some adjustment is merited for that scenario, but this goes too far as any metric would pinpoint the Bears as closer to three touchdowns better than the Jayhawks. Guess: Baylor minus-14.

West Virginia plus-12.5 at TCU, over/under: 44. The Horned Frogs might be one of the most underrated teams in the nation and a break or two away from being a Big 12 contender this season. They've gone 1-5 in games decided a touchdown or less, leaving them undervalued by the market. Guess: TCU minus-12.5.

Oklahoma minus-13.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 69. The Cowboys lost quarterback Spencer Sanders for the rest of the year, but have restructured their offense on the fly for the less-dynamic, though also potentially less-erratic Dru Brown. Oklahoma State therefore may not merit the couple extra points the market is adding to the spread for playing without Sanders. Guess: Oklahoma State plus-13.5.

Conference USA

Florida International plus-7.5 at Marshall, over/under: 49.5. The Panthers' power ratings got a boost out of its 31-24 victory over Miami as 21-point favorites last week, but it arguably shouldn't have. The upset was a total fluke, as SP+ calculated Miami's postgame win expectancy at 90 percent. Lean: Marshall minus-7.5.

UAB minus-3 at North Texas, over/under: 49.5. North Texas is low-key one of the most disappointing teams in the nation, declining by a minimum of four wins from last season despite bringing back most of its offense. And yet, I'm still wooed by their talent weekly. This line would have been considered preposterous at the start of the year. Guess: North Texas plus-3.

Charlotte minus-9.5 at Old Dominion, over/under: 50.5. Old Dominion has added a listlessness to its general ineffectiveness over the last few weeks. The Monarchs have gotten outscored by 122 points in Conference USA play to make them a team to avoid at all costs. Guess: Charlotte minus-9.5.

Middle Tennessee plus-9.5 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 47.5. Having outgained its last four opponents by a combined total of nearly 2 yards per play, the Blue Raiders are playing as well as any team in the conference. That includes Western Kentucky, which has enjoyed a breakout season in Tyson Helton's first year to inflate its prices. Guess: Middle Tennessee plus-9.5.

UTSA plus-20.5 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 56.5. Expect an all-out effort from the Bulldogs with quarterback J'Mar Smith returning and a win needed for any chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game. With similar rosters a year ago, Louisiana Tech pounded UTSA 31-3 on the road ass 13-point favorites. Guess: Louisiana Tech minus-20.5.

Southern Miss plus-9 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 54.5. Although their chances are minuscule, the Golden Eagles' Conference USA West division title aspirations aren't dead yet. They would need to be in order to justify this spread. Anything over a touchdown is a bit excessive. Guess: Southern Miss plus-9.

Rice minus-7 at UTEP, over/under: 44. Rice has won two straight, but because of that, it's now in unfamiliar territory. The Owls haven't been this big of a favorite in an FBS game in three and a half years, let alone on the road. Guess: UTEP plus-7.

Independents

New Mexico State plus-14 at Liberty, over/under: 65. Consider this matchup akin to an NFL divisional matchup considering the teams are playing each other for the fourth time since last season. They know each other too well for a spread this large. Guess: New Mexico State plus-14.

MAC

Miami (Ohio) plus-3 at Ball State, over/under: 56. The RedHawks have nothing to play for since they already clinched the MAC East title. The Cardinals technically don't have a reason to play either — they're already eliminated from bowl contention — but they might be the better team anyway and have an experienced group seeking to end their careers on a high. Play: Ball State minus-3.

Kent State plus-4.5 at Eastern Michigan, over/under: 66.5. The number appears to be right in line with where it should be, but Eastern Michigan having four extra days to prepare is no small advantage. The Eagles are well-coached under Chris Creighton, who likely used the extra time to build a game plan to get his team to bowl eligibility. Guess: Eastern Michigan minus-4.5.

Toledo plus-9.5 at Central Michigan, over/under: 64.5. Central Michigan has put together a terrific season mostly out of nowhere, but the extent this line has shifted is disarming. At the beginning of the year, the Rockets would have been around a 3-touchdown favorite. Guess: Toledo plus-9.5.

Bowling Green plus-29.5 at Buffalo, over/under: 51.5. Buffalo has only beaten one team this badly all season; Bowling Green has lost its five road games by an average of 42 points. There's no right side here. Guess: Bowling Green plus-29.5.

Mountain West

Utah State minus-11 at New Mexico, over/under: 63.5. No team in the nation is more decimated by injuries than New Mexico, which can barely field a team it's gotten so bad. Utah State quarterback Jordan Love has been erratic throughout the season but he'll find plenty of open men against a New Mexico defense allowing a national-worst 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Lean: Utah State minus-11.

BYU minus-3 at San Diego State, over/under: 39. BYU has gotten steamed after this game opened as a pick'em, but some hesitation might be in order. The Cougars haven't faced a defense as strong as the Aztecs' since a season-opening 30-12 loss to Utah as 7.5-point underdogs. Lean: San Diego State plus-3.

Wyoming plus-10.5 at Air Force, over/under: 41.5. Despite last week's 17-7 win over Colorado State as 4.5-point favorites, Wyoming remains a bet-against team by virtue of all their injuries. And Air Force might be undervalued if anything considering it ranks No. 26 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings. Lean: Air Force minus-10.5.

Army plus-3 at Hawaii, over/under: 54.5. Hawaii has clinched its spot in the conference championship game next week at Boise State while Army needs one more win to get bowl eligible. It must be Black Knights or pass, therefore, but be cautious as the trip from West Point, N.Y. to Honolulu, Hawaii is 5,000 miles and should typically come with a bigger bounty of points. Guess: Army plus-3.

UNLV plus-7.5 at UNR, over/under: 52. It's difficult to figure out how UNLV will respond to the firing of coach Tony Sanchez, but the extra half-point to get over the key number looms large. UNR is 5-0 in games decided a touchdown or less and not near as strong as its 7-4 straight-up record indicates. Guess: UNLV plus-7.5.

Fresno State minus-2.5 at San Jose State, over/under: 64.5. Even though the Spartans have progressed this season, the Bulldogs still have the much stronger roster. Fresno State also has an Even point differential in Mountain West play as opposed to San Jose State's minus-23. Guess: Fresno State minus-2.5.

Boise State minus-13.5 at Colorado State, over/under: 57.5. From a roster perspective, Colorado State should be able to keep it competitive with Boise State but the Rams have routinely underachieved on the field. I would need the spread to at least eclipse 14 to consider them. Guess: Boise State minus-13.5.

Pac-12

California plus-1.5 at UCLA, over/under: 51. The Bruins hold big edges both stylistically and situationally here. If their offense clicks the way it has routinely over the last month, the Golden Bears don't have the explosiveness to keep up. Cal is also off of its biggest win of the year, beating archrival Stanford 24-20 as 1-point favorites to secure bowl eligibility. Play: UCLA minus-1.5.

Oregon State plus-19.5 at Oregon, over/under: 66. This is a coaching mismatch, and not one in favor of the team being asked to lay nearly three touchdowns. Oregon State's Jonathan Smith has done one of the best jobs in the nation this season and will unleash everything he has left in a desperate attempt to not only beat his rival but reach bowl eligibility. Play: Oregon State plus-19.5.

Notre Dame minus-16.5 at Stanford, over/under: 48. Notre Dame has crushed four straight opponents — the statistics say its 21-20 win over Virginia Tech wasn't as close as the final score suggests — but injuries are mounting and it's never easy traveling from East to West for the first time in a season. This spread has already swelled 2.5 points from its opening number, and if another point happens to appear, the Cardinal will be unavoidable. Guess: Stanford plus-16.5.

Washington State plus-7.5 at Washington, over/under: 63.5. The Huskies' offense has been significantly slowed by cluster injuries at wide receiver. With their defense also declining, it will be tough for them to keep up in the likely event of a shootout. Guess: Washington State plus-7.5.

Arizona plus-13.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 59.5. It might be recency bias, but the Wildcats have looked like the worst team in the conference by a comfortable margin over the last month. The Sun Devils have looked like one of the best, making it a bit puzzling that this number moved off of minus-14. Guess: Arizona State minus-13.5.

Colorado plus-28.5 at Utah, over/under: 49. The spread looks fair, but Utah has a far more important date on deck with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Unlike the past several games, it doesn't seem likely that the Utes will be concerned with banking style points by piling onto a blowout. Guess: Colorado plus-28.5.

SEC

Louisville plus-3 at Kentucky, over/under: 53.5. Kentucky and Louisville have virtually the same point differential in conference play — minus-15 and minus-23, respectively — despite the latter competing in the much better conference. The Wildcats' defense is producing at a high level and should be able to slow the Cardinals. Play: Kentucky minus-3.

Florida State plus-17.5 at Florida, over/under: 54. Notice a trend yet? Unless Clemson is involved, take the SEC team in matchups against the ACC. The market is struggling to account for the vast differential in quality between the two conferences. Lean: Florida minus-17.5.

Texas A&M plus-17 at LSU, over/under: 64. This spread is now bordering on holding no value whatsoever after rising two points, but the spot still presents a strong edge on the Tigers' side. They've had a couple weeks to get ready for the Aggies considering they played at helpless Arkansas last week — a 56-20 win as 40-point favorites — while Texas A&M was preoccupied in a near-miss 19-13 loss at Texas A&M as 11.5-point underdogs. Lean: LSU minus-17.

Vanderbilt plus-22 at Tennessee, over/under: 46. Tennessee is the toast of the SEC after turning its season around by winning five of its last six games, and covering in all of them, but the Volunteers still lack offensive explosiveness. That's a major impediment to beating this large of a spread. Guess: Vanderbilt plus-22.

Clemson minus-27 at South Carolina, over/under: 50.5. At full strength, the Gamecocks would be able to keep it somewhat competitive with their in-state rivals. Unfortunately for South Carolina, it's nowhere near full strength and down to third-string players at several positions. Guess: Clemson minus-27.

Alabama minus-3.5 at Auburn, over/under: 50. Grabbing the half-point hook with the home team while it's still available. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones is too much of a wild card against a defense as strong as Auburn's and the market appears to be headed in the Tigers' direction. Guess: Auburn plus-3.5.

Missouri minus-12 at Arkansas, over/under: 53.5. Arkansas is one of the worst SEC teams of the last decade; Missouri is in utter decline and just saw its bowl ban upheld by the NCAA. Stay far away from this game. Guess: Missouri minus-12.

Sun Belt

Georgia State plus-7.5 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 58. Priors look like the primary cause of this spread holding above a touchdown, which is silly. Georgia State has outperformed Georgia Southern on the season by almost any measure, leaving no reason this shouldn't be around a pick'em. Play: Georgia State plus-7.5.

Arkansas State minus-11 at South Alabama, over/under: 56. Number looks a little short considering Layne Hatcher has found his groove as Arkansas State's quarterback. Hatcher should have a big day against a South Alabama defensive backfield allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Lean: Arkansas State minus-11.

Texas State plus-7 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 53.5. Both the Bobcats and Chanticleers are somehow worse than their records — 3-8 and 4-7, respectively — from an efficiency standpoint. A touchdown spread is too much in an ultimate battle of futility. Guess: Texas State plus-7.

Louisiana-Monroe plus-19.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 70. Up to No. 24 in the F/+ ratings, Louisiana-Lafayette is a true force to be reckoned with and capable of blowing out almost anyone in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns are also in the running to finish the regular season with the best against the spread record in the nation. Guess: UL-Lafayette minus-19.5.

Appalachian State minus-13 at Troy, over/under: 62.5. I'm trying not to overreact to the 53-3 beatdown Troy received from Louisiana-Lafayette as 13-point underdogs last week. It was a game where everything went wrong, and without that result, this line is likely a field goal shorter. Guess: Troy plus-13.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.