Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 17 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 30, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The calculus of handicapping NFL games early in the week has changed with the league’s ever-evolving COVID-19 situation.

Positive tests are sure to surface and send the betting market shifting drastically but it’s impossible to know where. Some bets placed early therefore inherently wind-up glorified coin flips where bettors can’t do anything but hope they’re on the right side of the line movement.

But even that good fortune doesn’t guarantee victory, as Talking Points can attest after last week. Lines in four games changed more than three points from Thursday’s publishing date to Sunday’s kickoff because of coronavirus news, and I wound up on the right side of three of them — but still went only 1-3.

The Bengals, which I picked at -2.5 and closed at -7.5, were the only one that came through with a 41-21 victory over the Ravens. The Chargers lost 41-29 to the Texans despite going from 9.5- to 13.5-point favorites, and the Cardinals fell 22-16 to the Colts despite jumping from pick’em to -3.

The Saints, which went from -3 to +3, never had a chance in a 20-3 Monday Night Football loss to the Dolphins.

All I can do is shrug and hope for better luck next time. It’s the nature of the betting beast right now: There are more variables than ever to navigate.

Read below for picks on every Week 17 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year picking every game against the spread stands at 122-117-1 after a 9-7 record in Week 16.

Plays (41-35)

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Washington Football Team This line is conspicuously low given how poorly Washington has played in three straight losses. That includes a 27-17 loss to the Eagles two weeks ago where the Football Team was outgained by an astounding 3.2 net yards per play.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at Baltimore Ravens The Ravens continue to be more ravaged by injuries than the betting market is capturing. The Rams, meanwhile, have played like the best team in the NFL over the last month with four straight wins and covers.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Detroit Lions Seattle fell to a hard-to-believe 0-5 in games decided by less than a touchdown with last week’s 25-24 defeat to Chicago, meaning the Seahawks are a lot better than their 5-10 record indicates. Laying 6.5 requires paying -120 (risking $1.20 to win $1) but is still a better bet than paying the standard -110 on -7, which would still be a play anyway.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at Green Bay Packers This is another number that currently requires laying -120, but exercise some patience and a flat +7 may become available later in the week. I can’t get on board with pricing Green Bay like the Super Bowl favorite given its weekly escape acts — the Packers are 5-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown — likely to eventually swing against them.

Denver Broncos +6 at Los Angeles Chargers This will turn into a value price if Teddy Bridgewater returns from concussion to play for the Broncos. The Chargers' defense has serious issues, and Bridgewater didn’t have much trouble in leading the Broncos to a 28-13 victory in the first game between these two teams less than a month ago.

Leans (43-38)

San Francisco 49ers -11.5 vs. Houston Texans Regardless of who’s playing quarterback, San Francisco should be able to run on a Houston defense tied for third-worst in the NFL in giving up 4.7 yards per rush attempt. The Texans’ 41-29 victory over the Chargers as 13.5-point underdogs last week wasn’t as impressive as it appeared on the surface considering they had a +3 turnover margin and were outgained by 0.8 yards per play.

Atlanta Falcons +14.5 at Buffalo Bills The Bills not only lead the league in variance by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings but, at least midseason, they were the most inconsistent team ever tracked by the analytics site. That makes them tough to trust laying this large of a number.

New York Giants +6.5 at Chicago Bears Yes, the Giants have severe quarterback issues, but from a season-long perspective, these teams are virtually even in EPA (expected points added) per play. The best course of action might be to wait and see if a +7 becomes available.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City has a decent-sized edge on offense, but defensively from a season-long perspective, Cincinnati might have an even bigger advantage as it’s allowed 5.4 yards per play to the visitor’s 5.8 yards per play. At the least, the Bengals have shown enough to where they shouldn’t be getting more than a field goal at home.

Guesses (38-44-1)

New England Patriots -14.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Yes, New England has lost two in a row but there’s a compelling case to be made that the losses came to two of the three best teams in the AFC. Jacksonville is a big step down, big enough that the opening spread of -16.5 might have been closer to the true price.

Indianapolis Colts -6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Yes, the Colts’ COVID-19 issues look as significant as any team in the league considering how thin they are behind quarterback Carson Wentz but the Raiders have positive tests of their own. And Las Vegas hasn’t exactly handled shorthanded teams with ease the last two weeks either considering it had narrow victories against Denver and Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Titans may be a smidge undervalued as they start to cut into their considerable injury report, which stretches beyond the much-publicized skill positions. This should be a good spot for them to do so considering they have 10 days in between games after upsetting the 49ers on the final Thursday Night Football game of the year.

New York Jets +13.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Buccaneers’ 32-6 victory over the Panthers last week concealed how thoroughly beaten-up it's become, especially among the skill positions. The Jets aren’t any better than the Panthers, but they seem to be playing harder with a slew of young players trying to stabilize their place in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -5 vs. Arizona Cardinals The number is about right, but the Cowboys’ defense is up to first in the league by DVOA. It’s a big step up from the defenses that have already held the Cardinals in check during a three-game losing streak.

Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers This is mainly just a case of grabbing a number that will likely disappear in the next couple days, as the Browns look headed to a 3.5-point or greater favorite in their second game against the Steelers. Cleveland also may be slightly undervalued given how many players it’s missed over the last couple games.

Carolina Panthers +7.5 at New Orleans Saints Carolina has barely come close to covering for five straight weeks, but the mere possibility of getting stuck laying more than a touchdown with Ian Book starting at quarterback for New Orleans is too much. The Panthers are therefore the lesser of two evils.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or