Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 13 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The NFC South reached as high as the third-favorite to produce the Super Bowl champion at 5-to-1 at local sports books coming into the season.

Nowhere in Las Vegas has updated the Super Bowl winning division future odds this week, but at national sports books, the NFC South is now as high as 18-to-1 and the second-longest shot — ahead of only the AFC South — to claim the title. The typically competitive (at least in past years) set of four teams has been an unmitigated disaster.

It’s the only division in the NFL where none of the teams sit with a winning record, and Football Outsiders calculates a 34% chance that all of them finish with a losing record. The Atlanta Falcons are the only team with a winning against the spread record at 7-5, and that’s only because they covered five straight to start the year before going 1-5 in their last six.

No one expected much out of the Falcons or Carolina Panthers, so the perceived preseason championship equity largely belonged to the 2020 Super Bowl-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a dash reserved for the free-agency boosted New Orleans Saints.

But both Tampa Bay and New Orleans have been highly disappointing heading into a Monday Night Football matchup in Week 12. The Buccaneers, leading the Falcons by a half-game for the divisional standings and two wins ahead of the Panthers and Saints, currently sit as a 3.5-point favorite.

So I’ll have to pick at least one NFC South team in this week’s column, as undesirable as that may sound. The division crushed our hopes at a fifth straight week without a losing record on plays last week.

The Falcons appeared in position to cover the 4.5-point midweek spread, if not win outright, against the Commanders with a minute remaining before Marcus Mariota threw an interception at the goal line to seal a 19-13 loss.

It was a fitting ending to the game based on how every NFC South team has played all year.

Read on for picks on every Week 13 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record now stands at 94-80-5 after going 8-7-1 last week.

Plays (25-23-5)

San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins’ offense has padded its statistics against a pillow-soft slate of opposing defenses over the last month. Encountering the 49ers’ defense, ranked fourth in the league by expected points added per play and climbing, is going to feel like a culture shock.

Las Vegas Raiders +2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers The Raiders have outgained two straight opponents by more than 1 net yard per play, a high mark they’ve now reached four times this season. The Chargers haven’t managed to pull that off once.

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Bengals have arguably looked like the best team in the league if judging solely off the last three weeks where they’ve covered in every game and that was without No. 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who’s now expected back.

Cleveland Browns -7 at Houston Texans Yes, it’s Deshaun Watson’s debut for the Browns but it doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback in this matchup. That’s because Nick Chubb might be the best running back in the NFL, and the Texans might have one of the worst rush defenses in NFL history.

Baltimore Ravens -8 vs. Denver Broncos The concern on the AFC North-leading Ravens is overblown. Yes, they’ve blown four games in the fourth quarter but building those big leads is more predictive going forward than surrendering them.

Leans (32-35)

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. New York Jets This is a fade of Jets quarterback Mike White, whom shouldn’t be upgraded for his successful first start of the season last week considering the competition — the Bears’ horrendous pass defense. The Vikings’ defense isn’t great, but it’s about league average and therefore significantly better than the Jets’ shameful offense.

Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers These teams are practically dead-even by both expected points added per play and Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. That means neither side should be favored even slightly on the road.

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots This number has come down from -5.5, and it might be worth buying the dip on the Bills. While Buffalo is more beaten up than ever on defense, its offense could be getting a boost this week with Josh Allen’s hurt elbow reportedly in better shape than it’s been in weeks.

New York Giants +2.5 vs. Washington Commanders The Commanders might have escaped last week, but their reckoning remains imminent. They have the better roster here, but the Giants should have the coaching edge with Brian Daboll against Ron Rivera. New York also got three extra days of rest coming off a 28-20 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys as 10.5-point underdogs.

Guesses (37-22)

Detroit Lions +1.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Both teams are better than their 4-7 straight-up records, but find ways to lose with repeated late-game collapses. Given that characteristic, it’s not comfortable to lay points on the road with either one of them.

Los Angeles Rams +7.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks’ defense gave up nearly 600 yards to what had been an inconsistent Raiders’ offense in last week’s 40-34 loss as 4-point favorites. The unit is so vulnerable that even Rams third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins should be able to move the ball at a decent clip.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints New Orleans would have been a play at the sports books that opened this spread at +6, but it now appears the line has overcorrected. The sad divisional showdown should be low-scoring to make points valuable but the Buccaneers have been better on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts +11 at Dallas Cowboys There aren’t many reasons to want to bet either on the Colts or against the Cowboys right now, but this number rose from -9.5 after Monday Night Football. Were the Colts really bad or banged up enough in that 24-17 loss as 2.5-point favorites to warrant such a move?

Green Bay Packers -4 at Chicago Bears Both quarterbacks are hurt but the most likely matchup for this game appears to be Aaron Rodgers vs. Trevor Siemian. If that happens, this number will close at least a point higher.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Tennessee Titans This is a perfect number, but the market has moved in Philadelphia’s direction far more than in Tennessee’s throughout the season. So it’s more likely that laying the five turns out to be a bargain by kickoff.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or