NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Midwest Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 15, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 16, 2022 | 2:38 p.m.

Before the first wave of the pandemic hit two years ago, Kansas was set to become the No. 1 overall seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament and sat atop of betting boards in future odds to win the tourney.

Perhaps this year’s Midwest Region is karma, or for the more conspiratorial-minded, the selection committee’s makeup gift, for the Jayhawks never getting to play that tournament out. Kansas somehow landed in the easiest bracket among all the No. 1 seeds, at least according to the betting market throughout the year, despite arguably having the worst resume.   

The Jayhawks had a relative up-and-down year, but now are priced as the second-likeliest team in the 68-team field – at +160 (i.e. risking $100 to win $160) behind Gonzaga at -140 (i.e risking $140 to win $100) — to reach the Final Four. From a sports book perspective, No. 3 seed Wisconsin and No. 4 seed Providence are the worst teams at their respective seeds by a significant margin.

No. 2 seed Auburn may edge counterparts Villanova and/or Duke by power ratings, but it’s extremely close and the Tigers were by far the worst of the bunch in recent weeks down the stretch of the season.

Kansas will potentially have to deal with a game, defensively-minded round of 32 opponent in San Diego State or Creighton, and could encounter red-hot No. 5 seed Iowa in the Sweet 16. But overall, the Midwest was a soft landing spot for a Kansas program grabbing its ninth No. 1 seed in 19 years under coach Bill Self.

The positioning might not make up for the loss of a should-have-been 10^th top seed in 2020, but it provides a surer shot to reach the national semifinal than ever looked possible during the season.

Read below for picks on every Midwest Region game. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. They will be updated when more matchups become official after the First Four games. This is the first of a four-part series so check back over the next two days for the other regions.  

No. 6 seed LSU -4 vs. No. 11 seed Iowa State Both these teams had surprisingly hot starts to the year before fading massively down the stretch with an inability to consistently produce points to complement more reliable defenses. They’re built way too similarly for this large of a spread, even if it has trimmed after an extra-inflated opener of LSU -5. The Tigers will also notably be playing under an interim coach in Kevin Nickelberry after firing Will Wade. Play: Iowa State +4.

No. 2 seed Auburn -16.5 vs. No. 15 seed Jacksonville State Auburn’s perimeter defense is nothing special, and should have Jacksonville State licking its chops given its style of play. The Gamecocks aren’t shy about bombing 3-point attempts and rate 11^th in the nation in 3 point percentage. If they happen to fall against the Tigers, a Gamecocks' team that shouldn’t even be in the tournament — they lost in the Atlantic Sun semifinals but got in anyway because Bellarmine is ineligible while completing its transition to Division 1 — could threaten for one of its all-time upsets. Play: Jacksonville State +16.5.

No. 3 seed Wisconsin -7.5 vs. No. 14 seed Colgate There’s at least some possibility that Wisconsin star Johnny Davis is not 100% from a lingering ankle injury he carried into the Big Ten Conference Tournament before going 3-for-19 from the floor in a loss to Michigan State. That should be more factored into the line. Colgate gave Arkansas all it could handle early last year in the round of 64 as a No. 14 seed before fading late, and this Badgers’ team isn't as good as those Razorbacks were. Lean: Colgate +7.5.

No. 1 seed Kansas -21.5 vs. No. 16 seed Texas Southern Texas Southern isn't afraid to push the pace, as it showed in a 78-possession game in a 76-67 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi in the First Four. That may have worked in separating against the Islanders, but it's a bad idea against a Jayhawks' team that will be comfortable in such a style. Kansas also enters the tournament on a tear and have looked dangerous enough to merit an extra point or so on the spread. Lean: Kansas -21.5.

No. 16 seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi +3.5 vs. No. 16 seed Texas Southern Both these teams appear to be highly-inefficient offensively plagued by turnover issues. They’re more capable defensively, which could leave this low-scoring and make the points more valuable. Lean: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +3.5.

No. 5 seed Iowa -10.5 vs. No. 12 seed Richmond The Spiders don’t really fit with the Cinderella mold they’re being forced into after winning the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament to steal a bid considering they came into the year considered a likely tournament team. They underachieved but those priors matter and serve as a sign that they have enough experience and skill to not be overwhelmed by Iowa’s admittedly formidable offense. Guess: Richmond +10.5.

No. 8 seed San Diego State -2.5 vs. No. 9 seed Creighton The Blue Jays have caught fire recently, covering in four of five games and making a run to the Big East Conference Tournament final, but their ceiling remains lowered without injured point guard Ryan Nembhard. The Aztecs are extremely physical, and should take the Blue Jays out of the comfort zone for scoring inside. Guess: San Diego State -2.5.

No. 7 seed USC -1.5 vs. No. 10 seed Miami Miami might be more dependable, but USC has the higher upside wish Isaiah Mobley’s interior defense and Drew Peterson’s shooting ability. Mobley should also help the Trojans capitalize on a significant size advantage inside. Guess: USC -1.5.

No. 4 seed Providence -2 vs. No. 13 seed South Dakota State Yes, Providence is a susceptible to an upset after going 10-2 in games decided by six points or less during the season to make its resume look better on paper than it is in reality. But there’s no bargain here, getting only two points with a team that ranks outside of the nation’s top 200 in defensive efficiency. Guess: Providence -2.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or