Weekend wagers: Bets on six sports including NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 28, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Two golf majors down, two golf majors cashed for the Weekend Wagers.

Last week’s PGA Championship was especially fruitful for the column. While I jumped on Scottie Scheffler after two rounds at +110 at the Masters, I tabbed Justin Thomas at 18-to-1 the week before.

That was good for a $1,800 boost to the bottom line here as part of the most profitable weekends in the column’s history. Last week’s picks went 5-3-1 for a $2,056 victory.

It was a nice way to bust out of the red for the year and give some breathing room going forward. This week’s edition is largely forward-looking.

The column will be on a two-week hiatus after today’s, so I weighed in on some of the biggest events in the sports calendar to come — the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and yes, golf’s U.S. Open.

Let’s try to go 3-for-3 on majors.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (2-2-1, $2,092.50): Emiliano Grillo Even money in third round of Charles Schwab Challenge vs. Dylan Fritelli (BetMGM)

$150 to win $150

This may seem like a random matchup to hone in on between two middling golfers six strokes off the lead at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas, but Grillo has traditionally been a reliable professional undervalued by the betting market. He's been playing poorly the last couple months but may now be rounding back into form — especially with his approach game, which is of the utmost importance in this tournament. Grillo sits at 3-under par despite having been one of the worst putters in the field through two rounds. Fritelli sits at 3-under par because he's been one of the best putters in the field through two rounds. Neither Fritelli nor Grillo is an above-average putter overall, and their performances on the green shouldn't be so divergent the rest of the way. There's no reason this matchup shouldn't be priced as a straight pick'em with -110 on both sides, or even Grillo -115. 

USFL (3-3, -$64.50): Tampa Bay Bandits +4.5 vs. New Jersey Generals (Circa Sports)

$165 to win $150

New Jersey has fielded the best offense in the USFL through six weeks, but the reason for much of the production is quarterback De’Andre Johnson. And he got hurt in last week’s 26-25 victory over Houston. Luis Perez proved to be a competent backup, but the Generals can’t be expected to click at the same rate without Johnson. Tampa Bay, sitting at 3-3 on the year, has been a major disappointment but still has one of the more talented rosters. I’m treading lightly here because the market is moving against me after New Jersey opened as low as -3.5. But without Johnson, it’s difficult to imagine a move through a key number in a game with a low total of 42 points is justified.

MLB (6-1, $890): Milwaukee Brewers -109 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (STN Sports)

$218 to win $200

Based on this line, Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore is getting too much credit for his mega-prospect status. Liberatore may very well turn into a star, but he’s not there yet. The Pirates hit the former No. 16 overall pick relatively hard in his first start, a 5-4 Cardinals win last Saturday, and the Brewers provide a significantly bigger challenge. Brewers starter Adrian Houser didn’t come into the year with the strongest reputation, but he’s been reliable for the National League Central leaders. Liberatore will need at least a few more starts to settle in and be considered an even matchup with Houser as the odds suggest.

NASCAR (6-4, $220): Denny Hamlin 10-to-1 and Ryan Blaney 12-to-1 to win Coca Cola 600 (South Point)

$120 to win $1,200 on Hamlin, $100 to win $1,200 on Blaney

So few matchups are currently available for NASCAR’s longest race of the year that I’ll just swing and hope to hit an outright Sunday night. Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing has been faster than any team on the recent 1.5-mile tracks, and he’s the driver to trust most in a marathon race like this. Blaney, meanwhile, is coming off an All-Star Race win last week in Texas. The All-Star Race typically holds no value going forward, but maybe it should in this case given the similarities between the Texas and Charlotte surfaces. Blaney’s speed has been top-notch all year and he’s not an overly-aggressive driver at high risk of getting into an accident in a race this lengthy. These are decent odds for a pair of drivers who seem sure to have a say on how the race plays out.

NBA (3-4, -$220): Boston Celtics +120 vs. Golden State Warriors in Possible NBA Finals series (Circa)

$300 to win $360

It's important to note this is a "possible series" bet, so it will be refunded if the Heat beat the Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. Miami may also hold value as a 2-to-1 underdog to Golden State in the Finals, but I'd rather wait and see how their many injured players are feeling after one more game. Boston has a few concerns in that area as well but not enough to make this price look reasonable. The Celtics have been far more efficient than the Warriors for months now. The only clear advantages the Warriors would hold are homecourt and health. Are those significant enough to flip them into the favorite? I don’t think so. Golden State hasn’t seen a defense anywhere near as formidable as Boston’s all playoffs. Golden State would be favored at home in Game 1 to start the series next Thursday, so maybe the better bet is to wait, hope it wins and then get Boston at a bigger plus-price. But I don’t want to take the risk. I’ll lock in the Celtics now. They’ve been too efficient not to expect them to take one of the first two games of a potential matchup in San Francisco.

NHL (3-5, -$112): Nathan MacKinnon 5-to-1 to win Conn Smythe Trophy (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $1,000

The Avalanche are +130 to win the Stanley Cup, and yet the unquestioned face of the franchise is 5-to-1 to win the playoff MVP award? That makes no sense. Maybe it would if MacKinnon had struggled this postseason, but it’s been the opposite. He was third in playoff goals going into Friday’s Game 6 in St. Louis, having scored eight times to go with five assists. Colorado winning the title is no guarantee, but it’s more likely than any other remaining team. And if the Avalanche pull it off, it’s going to be because MacKinnon maintains his high standard and once again proves why he’s one of the best hockey players in the world.

Golf (2-2-1, $2,092.50): Matthew Fitzpatrick to win US Open at 40-to-1 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $4,000

The PGA Championship’s Southern Hills played difficultly, and the 27-year-old England native came extremely close to capturing his first victory as a professional on American soil. Three weeks from now, Brookline at The Country Club outside Boston will set up similarly to Fitzpatrick’s strengths. And he’s already shown how well he can play there, having won the 2013 U.S. Amateur on the course. The narrative of another potential win there will take hold leading up to the U.S. Open and potentially drop Fitzpatrick’s odds beyond bettable territory. But right now, this price is way too generous. Fitzpatrick will be one of the top threats to take the third major of the year.

Weekend wagers year to date: 33-36-1, $1,729

Weekend betting column all-time: 375-366-2, $8,247.43

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); New Orleans Breakers 5-to-1 to win USFL title ($200 to win $1,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or