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Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) scrambles as he looks for a receiver against Florida during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla.
Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022 | 2 a.m.
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An SEC matchup that regularly drew “Game of the Year” billings over the last decade is passing the torch to a different pairing this weekend.
Alabama and LSU will continue their highly acclaimed annual series Saturday evening, but only after Tennessee at Georgia gets the spotlight of CBS’s weekly premier SEC time slot at 12:30 p.m. No game for the rest of the regular season, with the possible exception of Michigan at Ohio State at the end of the month, will have bigger College Football Playoff implications than the undefeated Bulldogs hosting the undefeated Volunteers.
No one saw this rivalry that Georgia’s recently dominated with five straight wins of more than three touchdowns reaching these heights this season.
The Bulldogs were considered a national title contender by the betting market, but a cut below Alabama and Ohio State by the betting market. Bettors saw the Volunteers, meanwhile, as promising but with a limited ceiling considering they were as high as 125-to-1 to win the national championship.
Georgia opened anywhere from a 15- to 17-point favorite over Tennessee in Game of the Year lines over the summer but has seen a steady drop. The Bulldogs were as low as 8.5-point favorites in the game Monday morning with early reports indicating 90% of the action on the Volunteers.
The winner is likely headed to the SEC Championship Game, which is more or a less a play-in game to the College Football Playoff. I have a play on the game as part of what I hope will be a bounce-back week after posting my worst record of the year in last week’s column, 18-27-2 overall (4-7 on plays, 7-8-2 on leans and 7-12 on guesses) to bring the season total to 266-203-5 (49-57 on plays, 104-64-5 on leans and 113-82 on guesses).
Read below for picks on every Week 10 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.
Big Games
Texas Tech +10 at TCU, over/under: 71. At some point, TCU’s heater of opponent-injury luck and late-game covering heroics is going to cool off. Maybe it’s this week against Texas Tech’s disorienting pace and the likely return of quarterback Tyler Shough in full. Play: Texas Tech +10.
Tennessee +8.5 at Georgia, over/under: 65.5. This number has shot down rapidly for months — it sat at 11.5 in lookahead lines last week — and now it’s gone too far. Georgia has a major advantage over Tennessee defensively, and the two teams’ offensive metrics aren’t all that different either — the Bulldogs may not be as explosive but actually have a better success rate than the Volunteers. Play: Georgia -8.5.
Michigan State +16.5 at Illinois, over/under: 43.5. The Illini are an inexplicable and unlucky loss to Indiana away from being in the College Football Playoff conversation, with the efficiency numbers to show they’d be a worthy choice. But it’s worth considering their schedule, one that’s among the easiest any Power Five conference team has faced this season. Lean: Michigan State +16.5.
Alabama -12.5 at LSU, over/under: 58. This looks like a high price to pay, but reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is presumably fully recovered from his injury off a bye week. LSU is well-coached and improving but its defense has been average at best and might be ripe for Young’s taking. Guess: Alabama -12.5.
Texas -1 at Kansas State, over/under: 55. This number was shaping up to be Texas -3 before Kansas State’s 48-0 beatdown of Oklahoma State as 2-point favorites last week. That may have merited a positive adjustment for the Wildcats, but the Longhorns also deserve one for rest after a bye week. Lean: Texas -1.
Clemson -4 at Notre Dame, over/under: 47.5. Spread is fair but this could be a plus matchup for Notre Dame’s defense. It’s hard to lay points on a road team in a night game at Notre Dame Stadium that just benched its quarterback to spark a comeback win in its last game. Guess: Notre Dame +4.
Wake Forest -4 at NC State, over/under: 54. Everyone saw Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman’s six turnovers in a quarter last week, but what fewer discuss are his three or so touchdown passes a week and explosive-play potential. That gives the Demon Deacons an advantage over the Wolfpack as they break in talented but green freshman quarterback MJ Morris. Lean: Wake Forest -4.
Big Plays
Ohio State -38 at Northwestern, over/under: 62.5. Ohio State is inching closer to having its full complement of offensive players back, and unlike at Penn State last week, Northwestern has little to stop it. The Wildcats’ defense used to be a strength, but has been as helpless as their offense this season. Play: Ohio State -38.
North Carolina -9 at Virginia, over/under: 59. North Carolina has its flaws — mainly on defense — but star sophomore quarterback Drake Maye can make up for them. Virginia is virtually all flaws, and nothing or no one to balance them out. Play: North Carolina -9.
Florida +3 at Texas A&M, over/under: 55. Backing the Aggies requires a leap of faith in third-string quarterback Conner Weigman but he was more productive than his counterparts in a 31-28 loss to Ole Miss as 3-point underdogs last week. Texas A&M also has personnel advantages almost everywhere else on the field. Play: Texas A&M -3.
Penn State -14 at Indiana, over/under: 54.5. Indiana is outmanned every Big Ten game but has been sneakily competitive this season and now should get a lot of banged-up players back out of a bye. Penn State is the now the ailing side coming off a demoralizing 44-31 loss to Ohio State as 16-point underdogs. Play: Indiana +14.
UCF -3.5 at Memphis, over/under: 61.5. This should be a shootout and Memphis might be better-equipped for a shootout this week. Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan is rested and healthy while Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee was injured in last week’s late 25-21 comeback win over Cincinnati as 1-point favorites. Play: Memphis +3.5.
BYU +7.5 at Boise State, over/under: 55.5. No team is hotter than Boise State, which has four straight wins and covers, and no teams is colder than BYU, which has four straight outright losses and seven consecutive against the spread losses. But the Broncos haven’t played anyone tough during their run while BYU has faced a gauntlet. Play: BYU +7.5.
UNLV +6.5 at San Diego State, over/under: 48.5. Don’t buy San Diego State’s sudden rise to offensive competence. Assuming Doug Brumfield returns for the scarlet and grey, UNLV’s offense has a major edge. Play: UNLV +6.5.
Other Games
Play: Fresno State -24 vs. Hawaii
Play: UAB +2 vs. UTSA
Play: Arizona State +10.5 vs. UCLA
Play: Middle Tennessee -2 at Louisiana Tech
Lean: Louisiana +6 vs. Troy
Lean: Miami +8 vs. Florida State
Lean: Oregon State +4.5 at Washington
Lean: Louisville -7.5 vs. James Madison
Lean: Minnesota -15 at Nebraska
Lean: SMU -2 vs. Houston
Lean: Iowa State -7 vs. West Virginia
Lean: New Mexico +14.5 at Utah State
Lean: Kansas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Lean: Tulsa +8 vs. Tulane
Lean: Oklahoma -3 vs. Baylor
Lean: Western Michigan +4 at Bowling Green
Lean: Appalachian State -2.5 at Coastal Carolina
Lean: Stanford +5.5 vs. Washington State
Lean: Virginia Tech -3.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Lean: Duke -9 at Boston College
Lean: Maryland +6 at Wisconsin
Lean: Michigan -26.5 at Rutgers
Lean: Army +7.5 vs. Air Force in Arlington, Texas
Lean: Liberty +14 at Arkansas
Lean: South Carolina -6.5 at Vanderbilt
Lean: Mississippi State -12 vs. Auburn
Guess: Kent State -6.5 vs. Ball State
Guess: Texas State pick’em at UL-Monroe
Guess: Navy +20.5 at Cincinnati
Guess: Syracuse +3.5 at Pittsburgh
Guess: Marshall -2.5 at Old Dominion
Guess: Purdue -4.5 vs. Iowa
Guess: Charlotte +16.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Guess: California +22.5 at USC
Guess: Colorado +32 vs. Oregon
Guess: Kentucky -2 at Missouri
Guess: UTEP +4 at Rice
Guess: Central Michigan +4 at Northern Illinois
Guess: Temple +3 vs. South Florida
Guess: Georgia Southern +4 vs. South Alabama
Guess: North Texas -21 vs. Florida International
Guess: Arizona +18 at Utah
Guess: Georgia State +2 at Southern Miss
Guess: Massachusetts +16 at Connecticut
Guess: San Jose State -24 vs. Colorado State
Guess: Buffalo -3 at Ohio
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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