College football by the odds: Handicapping every Pac-12 team’s win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 3, 2023 | 2 a.m.

At least the Pac-12 Conference is going out on top.

The preeminent conference on the West Coast will still exist in some form after this season, but it will hardly resemble the collection of teams fans have come to know. UCLA and USC are off to the Big Ten, while Colorado is also departing to rejoin the Big 12.

The obvious punchline is that few will notice the league is gone. The Pac-12 has taken a lot of heat for being the weakest power conference over the last decade, but for once, it’s going to be difficult to ignore in 2023.

Four Pac-12 teams rate in the nation’s top 20 by almost any set of power ratings — USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and two more — UCLA and Oregon State — sit just outside.

The other four major conferences all have two teams taking up more than 50% of the probability to ultimately be crowned champions in their respective leagues, according to future odds. The Pac-12 is the only exception, making it the conference with the most expected parity.

A gap does exist between USC and the other contenders, but at +190 (i.e. risking $100 to win $190) via Circa Sports, it’s the shortest power-conference favorite. Prices are bunched up behind the Trojans with Oregon and Washington at +325 apiece and Utah offered at 7-to-1.

The Utes were shorter for much of the offseason but have recently seen their odds drift based off injury concerns.

The downside to all the competition is that the teams may beat up on each other and extend a College Football Playoff drought. A Pac-12 team hasn’t reached the playoff since 2017 when Washington lost 24-7 to Alabama. 

USC was in position to do so last year before Utah blew it out 47-24 in the conference championship game at Allegiant Stadium to win back-to-back Pac-12 crowns. That was a matchup between the two runaway preseason conference favorites — USC was 2-to-1 going into the season and Utah was +225 — but the outlook isn’t so simple this year.

The final Pac-12 race in the conference’s current form should be a memorable one.

Read below for a win-total handicap on every team in the Pac-12. Listed odds next to the team are from Circa Sports, while the pick comes from the best odds on the chosen side available at the five Las Vegas sports books with win totals available on their mobile apps — Circa, SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Caesars/William Hill, STN Sports, BetMGM and Boyd Sports. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Plays will be tracked in the Weekend Wagers column throughout the season.

Arizona: 4.5 wins (over -145, under +125)

Jayden de Laura is an awfully talented quarterback if he can just cut down on the interceptions, which should be a reasonable expectation going into his junior year with so much around him. Arizona is big up front, and though it lost top receiver Dorian Singer to USC, plenty of other contributing skill-players are back. They were one of the worst power-conference teams in the nation defensively a year ago and still managed to win five games. Some improvement in the second year under defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen is likely.

Lean: Over 4.5 wins at -145 (Circa Sports)

Arizona State: 4.5 wins (over -125, under +105)

Kenny Dillingham might have been a smart long-term hire as the Sun Devils’ new coach, but he’s not set up for success in his inaugural season. The 33-year-old, youngest coach in college football had to hit the transfer portal as hard as anyone in the sport to put together a roster. The differential between the top of the Pac-12 and the bottom is exceptionally large this season, and Arizona State is definitely in the latter group.

Lean: Under 5 wins at -130 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

California: 5 wins (over -110, under -110)

The Golden Bears have been more successful in the sports book than on the field in coach Justin Wilcox’s six-year tenure. He’s never posted a losing record against the spread aside from the shortened 2020 COVID campaign. That’s a sign of a good coach, or at least one that’s overachieved with the players around him, and not someone to target betting against at a fair price. This is a fair price. While Cal remains undermanned and, this year, saddled with a tough schedule, count on Wilcox — if not new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital — stealing a game somewhere in unforeseen fashion.

Lean: Over 5 wins at -110 (Circa)

Colorado: 3.5 wins (over Even money, under -120)

The Buffaloes’ schedule is tough, and their depth is nonexistent. It would be unprecedented for a coach to take over, completely overhaul a roster and improve drastically from the year before. Colorado went 1-11 last season and rated as one of the worst teams in the nation. Maybe Deion Sanders is truly the magic-worker his marketing pushes lead everyone to believe, but more likely, it’s going to take same time to see what he can turn Colorado into. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and cornerback Travis Hunter are great starting points, but there’s a long way to go elsewhere.

Play: Under 3.5 wins at -120 (STN Sports)

Oregon: 9.5 wins (over Even money, under -120)

Oregon’s offense was electric a year ago, and new coordinator Will Stein should be able to pick up where the departed Dillingham left off with veteran quarterback Bo Nix. Defense is where the Ducks fell short, and those struggles are unlikely to continue with a high-level of returning production for coach, and former Georgia defensive coordinator, Dan Lanning to employ. As long as Lanning can continue to progress as a coach, the Ducks might have the most well-rounded roster in the conference.

Lean: Over 9.5 wins at +120 (SuperBook)

Oregon State: 8.5 wins (over +115, under -135)

The Beavers are coming off a dream season where they posted their best record in 22 years. A regression to historical norms is far more frequent than taking another leap forward as many are anticipating this year. That could be especially true in this case. Oregon State largely thrived as a result of an experienced defense that has since lost most of its key cogs. Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hasn’t shown enough through his career to be considered an offensive savior. It’s typically a good rule to fade the hype teams, and Oregon State is a hype team this year.      

Play: Under 8.5 wins at -135 (BetMGM)

Stanford: 2.5 wins (over -145, under +125)

The Cardinal’s situation is every bit as challenging as the ones at Arizona State and Colorado while breaking in a new coach this year, but their win total is significantly lower. It’s so low that there’s almost no way to justify taking the under. New coach Troy Taylor has a unique offense that’s caught bigger, stronger and faster opponents off guard the last couple years while he was at Sacramento State. He should be able to at least threaten a few upsets, and pulling one off is all that’s needed to clear this low of a win total. 

Guess: Over 2.5 wins at -130 (BetMGM)

UCLA: 8.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

Incoming five-star quarterback Dante Moore just turned 18 years old, but if he can live up to his recruiting profile, everything else is in place for UCLA to finish in the top half, if not quarter, of the conference. Defense has lagged behind Chip Kelly’s offense since the coach arrived in Westwood, Calif., but should have enough continuity and skill to improve this season. There are more disparate parts on offense, but the talent after a strong recruiting class and dive into the transfer portal is indisputable.

Lean: Over 8.5 wins at Even money (SuperBook)

USC: 10 wins (over -115, under -105)

Defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams could beat this number single-handedly, but that would take another transcendent season. It’s typically harder than it sounds to put together back-to-back campaigns like that, hence why no one has won the Heisman twice in a row since Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. The Trojans still have questions elsewhere, namely on defense and in the trenches where they were mediocre a year ago. A historic run of turnover luck — they were first in the nation in the category per the SP+ ratings — allowed them to go 11-1 anyway but that can’t be counted upon to repeat.

Play: Under 10 wins at Even money (SuperBook)

Utah: 8.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

The schedule-makers did the Utes no favor in their quest to become the Pac-12’s first three-peat champions since the conference expanded last decade. With road games at USC and Washington — while also having UCLA and Oregon on the schedule — they have the toughest slate in the conference. The injury gods may similarly appear to be conspiring against them. Star quarterback Cameron Rising is coming off a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl and may not be ready for an opening two-week stretch against Florida and Baylor — tough games that are must-wins to eclipse the win total.  

Guess: Under 8.5 wins at -115 (Circa)

Washington: 9.5 wins (over +115, under -135)

Few quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the nation will be better than the Huskies’ Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze, respectively. Odunze, a former Bishop Gorman High star, isn’t the only established local standout on the roster as Liberty graduate Troy Fautanu is part of a physically imposing offensive line that should improve from last year. Few coaches in the nation have consistently crafted game plans as well as Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, who’s 18-13 against the spread for his career. Everything is in place for the Huskies to make a run at the Pac-12 title.

Play: Over 9 wins at -120 (SuperBook)

Washington State: 6 wins (over -120, under Even money)

The Cougars are firmly established in the middle class of the Pac-12 coming off back-to-back seven-win seasons, but their roster quality skews more towards the bottom-tier teams than the group of contenders. It’s been difficult to attract big-time players to Pullman, Wash., in this age of college football and just as challenging to keep standouts there and out of the transfer portal. Washington State does return prolific quarterback Cam Ward, but rates in the bottom half of the conference by returning production and also lost both coordinators.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at -162 (Boyd Sports)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or